By Tony Abbott -
There's one team in the NHL that is separating itself from the rest of the NHL, and it's obviously the Colorado Avalanche. Minnesota Wild fans are well aware of this, having gotten a taste of the buzzsaw known as the Avs in a 5-1 loss last Sunday. But Colorado's fearsome reputation has been built upon far more than one game.
Their 27-2-7 record through 36 games is borderline historic. The Avs' current pace is to hit 138 points, leaping over the 2022-23 Boston Bruins for the NHL record. Evolving-Hockey projects the team to finish with 125.7 points — let's call it 126 — which would put them seventh all-time. They lead the league by a wide margin in both goals for percentage and expected goals for percentage.
As everyone here probably knows, that's a huge problem for the Wild and Dallas Stars. The three Central Division rivals have the three highest point totals in the NHL, and are near-locks to enter the same playoff bracket. The Wild are highly likely to face the Stars in the first round, and their reward for winning will almost definitely be running head-first into the Avs for the second.
It's a situation that's making Wild fans very antsy, for good reason. With not one, but two legitimate superstars in Quinn Hughes and Kirill Kaprizov, the Wild are perhaps in the best position for a Stanley Cup since the start of the 2003 Western Conference Finals. This should also theoretically be a great opportunity for the franchise to break out of the first round for the first time in a decade. Having the third-best record in the NHL, but having to face the league's second-best team would be the most "Not Weird, Wild" outcome imaginable.
It can be easy to buy into the fatalism of it all, the unfairness. But doing so ignores the signature trait of the Stanley Cup Playoffs: its volatility.
Now, looking at the very recent past, the NHL's postseason doesn't seem so unpredictable. The past two Cup Finals have had the same matchup and outcome. The Florida Panthers have gone to the Final in three straight seasons, following a run in which the Tampa Bay Lightning represented the Eastern Conference three years in a row.
In that continuity, we forget just how infrequently the "best" team in the regular season actually follows that up with a successful postseason. We see this most famously play out when looking at Presidents' Trophy winners:
President's Trophy Winners in Playoffs, 2016-2025:
2025: Winnipeg Jets, Lost in Second Round
2024: New York Rangers, Lost in Conference Finals
2023: Boston Bruins, Lost in First Round
2022: Florida Panthers, Lost in Second Round
2021: Colorado Avalanche, Lost in Second Round
2020: Boston Bruins, Lost in Second Round
2019: Tampa Bay Lightning, Lost in First Round
2018: Nashville Predators, Lost in Second Round
2017: Washington Capitals, Lost in Second Round
2016: Washington Capitals, Lost in Second Round
While we see a sprinkling of forgettable President's Trophy winners like the 2024-25 Jets, we also see some of the best teams in recent memory. Those 2023 Bruins, remember, have the NHL record for points in a season. The 2019 Lightning generated "Best Team Ever?" discussions throughout the regular season. Still, we have one combined Conference Final appearance.
One could rightfully point out that the best teams don't always have the best record. They could also correctly say that the Avs don't just have the best record, but also the best underlying numbers. How do those teams do?
Highest 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% Team in Playoffs, 2016 to 2025:
2025: Carolina Hurricanes (55.4%), Lost in Conference Finals
2024: Edmonton Oilers (57.6%), Lost Cup Final
2023: Carolina Hurricanes (59.9%), Lost in Conference Finals
2022: Boston Bruins (57.5%), Lost in First Round
2021: Colorado Avalanche (60.7%), Lost in Second Round
2020: Golden Knights (56.5%), Lost in Conference Finals
2019: Carolina Hurricanes (55.6%), Lost in Conference Finals
2018: Boston Bruins (54.4%), Lost in Second Round
2017: Minnesota Wild (56.3%), Lost in First Round
2016: Pittsburgh Penguins (55.8%), Won Stanley Cup
We absolutely see more success in this group, but we're also looking at a field where 40% of teams didn't make it past the second round. Are we still to believe the Avalanche are inevitable?
Yes, they have two of the best four players in the NHL in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, both of whom are Grade-A playoff performers. MacKinnon has 125 points in 95 career postseason games, and has averaged a point-per-game or more in every single one of his trips to the playoffs. Makar has 85 points in 79 career games as a defenseman. It's an intimidating duo.
And yet... Colorado has had relatively little playoff success with two players who have been top-10 in the NHL for their entire time together.
Colorado Avalanche in Playoffs, MacKinnon/Makar Era:
2025: Lost in First Round (Dallas Stars)
2024: Lost in Second Round (Dallas Stars)
2023: Lost in First Round (Seattle Kraken)
2022: Won Stanley Cup
2021: Lost in Second Round (Vegas Golden Knights)
2020: Lost in Second Round (Dallas Stars)
2019: Lost in Second Round (San Jose Sharks)
Of those six one-or-two-and-done seasons, how many of them did Colorado not have the best forward and defenseman in the series? It's only arguable that it was 2019, when the Sharks had just-out-of-his-prime Erik Karlsson going against a rookie Makar. The 2021 version of Vegas didn't have either Jack Eichel or Alex Pietrangelo. As good and consistent as Dallas has been, they've never had a forward as good as MacKinnon, and Heiskanen has always been a half-step below Makar, at least.
No one would suggest that the Avalanche's playoff ceiling is a second-round loss; that would be silly. The Avs are more than capable of blasting through the Wild, or even their frequent foil, the Stars, in a playoff series. But even with a tough first-round matchup ahead of the Wild in the Stars, an Avalanche victory in the second round is far from guaranteed.
Does the playoff format stack the deck against Minnesota more than it should? Of course. But trading for Hughes was meant to give the Wild a forward/defense duo that could match any in the NHL. The Wild having to get through a bracket with Dallas and Colorado is inevitable, but the good news? Nothing else is. Bring it on.
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