Middleton's Offensive Surge Unlocked Something For the Wild

I didn’t think it was possible. I never could have guessed it. You didn’t, either; don’t lie. 

But low and behold, Jake Middleton is fifth on the Minnesota Wild in points and leads all Wild blueliners in points with seven points through five games.

You can put me in the camp that moaned and groaned when Minnesota extended Middleton. General manager Bill Guerin locked up his mustachioed friend with a four-year deal that kicks in after this season ends, paying him $4.35 million per season. 

The contract was probably fair when Middleton was playing at his best. However, Middleton looked lost last season without his usual defensive partner, Wild captain Jared Spurgeon. 

So when Spurgeon went down before the start of the Wild’s road trip, I was worried about how Middleton would perform. But the burly 6’3”, 200 lbs. defender did all this damage without Spurgold. Instead, Faber was with Middleton for most of the road trip, and Middleton thrived. 

Middleton has been aggressive in the offensive zone. He knows when to pinch, and being involved in the forecheck has allowed him to find the scoresheet. As a result, Middleton is tied for seventh in the NHL in points among defensemen. 

He’s not giving up anything on the defensive side, either. Middleton’s defensive numbers remain strong. Middleton is fourth in the league in shots blocked per game with three and leads the team with 27 blocks. Middleton is third on the team with an elite 1.83 expected goals against per 60. 

On the offensive side, Middleton is top ten in the league in goals above expected at 1.5. Middleton leads the Wild defenders in goals for per 60 with 4.07. 

Middleton’s shots allowed are his only shortcoming. Only Zach Bogosian and Marcus Johansson allow more shots per game than Middleton. However, the Wild’s goaltending has been superb, so that hasn’t burned Middleton. 

Faber has been a boon for Middleton, creating one of the best pairs in the league. Faber and Middleton are among the top five in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 1.69. The pair is third in the league in expected goals against with only 3.1. They are also among the top 10 in total shots against and shots against per game. 

But what if Middleton can keep this pace up? He’s bound to cool off. Still, he’s on pace for 64 points. For context, he set a career-high in points with 25 last season. Middleton is also doing this all at five-on-five. The Wild don’t give the 28-year-old powerplay time or other advantageous offensive opportunities. 

Middleton’s production on the backend and the boost with Faber as his partner makes him a legit top-four defender. It always felt like Middleton was a bit out of his depth and he would be more suited for a third pairing role. Spurgeon carried a lot of Middleton’s metrics during his time in Minnesota when the duo played as Minnesota’s top pair. When Spurgeon went out, Middleton fell apart. 

Middleton has thrived with Faber as his partner since Spurgeon went out this season. The former seventh-round pick still benefits from playing with someone better than him. It’s just Faber this year, and it’s paying off on the scoresheet. 

By playing like a legitimate top-four defender, Middleton unlocks the best of the Wild’s defense. It gives the team a true top-four defensive core. If Faber and Middleton can continue their two-way play, the Wild can create one of the best shutdown pairs in the NHL with Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. 

Having a shutdown defensive pair and a pair that can be offensively dynamic is a huge boost for the matchups against the high-end teams in the Central Division, like the Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, and Dallas Stars. Minnesota’s third pair of Zach Bogosian and Jon Merrill leaves much to be desired, but Merrill has been okay this season. 

I had doubts about Jake Middleton this season and beyond. However, the grizzled veteran is proving many doubters like myself wrong with his surge in offense. There’s no guarantee that he can keep this pace up. But if he does, it will go a long way in boosting the Wild’s postseason hopes. 

All stats and data via HockeyDB, Evolving Hockey, Cap Wages, MoneyPuck.com, and Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.