By Tony Abbott -
Since Kirill Kaprizov put his pen to paper last week, the hockey world has turned its sole attention to Connor McDavid. If Kaprizov was going to get a record-shattering eight-year, $136 million deal, then what did the best player in the world deserve? $18 million? $20 million?
When you've won three Hart Trophies, five Art Ross Trophies, and racked up over 1,000 points before your 29th birthday, you get exactly what you want. If you thought Kaprizov had leverage over the Minnesota Wild, McDavid might even have had more over the Edmonton Oilers. So it was strange when we found out, apparently, exactly what he wanted.
McDavid signed a laughably below-market deal on Monday, going very short-term with a two-year, $25 million contract. That's not per year. His $12.5 million AAV won't be the highest on the Edmonton Oilers when it kicks in -- that'll be Leon Draisaitl's $14 million AAV.
After signing his deal, McDavid is set to be just the fifth-highest-paid player in the league, behind Kaprizov, Draisaitl, Auston Matthews ($13.25M AAV), and Nathan MacKinnon ($15.6M). With Jack Eichel, Cale Makar, Artemi Panarin, and Kyle Connor slated for UFA status next year, he might fall to ninth by the time the season starts.
The contrast comes ready-made. The Good Canadian Boy stayed in his country, with the team that drafted him, and even gave them a huge break. The Greedy European Guy stayed with the team that drafted him, but turned down a giant, record-setting contract to squeeze another million bucks a year out of them. Kaprizov making $4.5 million more than McDavid and $3 million more than anyone else will surely put a bullseye on him for criticism, perhaps even in the local market.
However, McDavid's deal doesn't sour Kaprizov's. It probably doesn't mean we should view Kaprizov's contract any differently than we did last week.
Yes, McDavid forgoed a raise to free up dollars for the Oilers, and that's not nothing. His making $12.5 million instead of $18 million-plus for the next three years maximizes his team's odds of getting a third, fourth, and fifth whack at the Stanley Cup. It's a move that's absolutely motivated by winning.
Still, that's not an act of charity, or what's best for the Oilers. It's got Edmonton in a place where Minnesota didn't want to be.
Their superstar has a foot out the door.
Instead of being in limbo with McDavid for one year, their superstar delayed doomsday by only two years. If the team wins a Cup in those seasons, then great. Flags fly forever. But if not, or if they win, and McDavid doesn't feel like Edmonton can build a dynasty, then McDavid has built himself the most golden of parachutes.
In the final year of McDavid's contract, the salary cap is slated to be $113.5 million. Presumably, it will increase the following year. Still, even if it stays stagnant, McDavid is set to hit the free agent market with the ability to make a maximum of $22.7 million.
We've seen McDavid enough to know that he's not likely to max out his cap hit. Still, all he would need to do is sign a six-year, $112 million deal ($18.67M AAV) to exceed Kaprizov's $136 million over the next eight seasons. Even while taking less, he will be made whole. The only question is, where will he get that payday?
Did any Wild fan really want to sign up for two more years of limbo, of the wolves known as NHL Insiders circling the State of Hockey, playing matchmaker with Kaprizov and other big markets? Is a $4.5 million discount for two seasons worth that?
Probably not! It might have been a hefty price, but Kaprizov bought in, and did so with less reason than McDavid has to buy into the Oilers' long-term outlook. Say what you want about Edmonton, but they've won more playoff series in the past two seasons (six) than the Wild have in 25 (four). The Oilers have a Hart Trophy winner locked up for eight seasons (Draisaitl), a former 100-point center (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), and a 26-year-old defenseman with an 80-point season (Evan Bouchard) as teammates. All due respect to Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, or any other Wild player, but no one else in Minnesota has anything approaching those credentials.
It must also be noted that Minnesota isn't in as dire need of an extra $4.5 million in the short term as the Oilers are. Even after signing Kaprizov and Filip Gustavsson to a combined $23.8 million, Minnesota is set to enter next summer with over $16 million of cap space to fill just six roster spots. The Wild have just over $70 million committed for the 2027-28 season, which is slightly more than 60% of the $113.5 million salary cap.
While Edmonton's cap situation might look better now -- they have $22.7 million to fill nine roster spots -- they don't have a goalie under contract for 2026-27. Assuming that takes somewhere in the $7 million range, then McDavid's discount becomes the difference between the Oilers having to fill eight roster spots with $15.7 million or $11.2 million. Those dollars are simply going further in Edmonton.
Really, though, it shouldn't take much math to show that Kaprizov staying in Minnesota for the next nine seasons has value that supercedes a short-term discount. This wasn't just the Wild needing to retain a star player. It's not even as big a deal as what Edmonton's facing with their franchise player. Losing McDavid would be devastating, but Draisaitl is a decent backup plan if McDavid moves on in three years.
Retaining Kaprizov for the long haul was an existential problem for the Wild. If they couldn't keep their only star player, they'd have lost all credibility with the fanbase. What's the point of paying attention if the players can't buy in?
The Wild had to pay top-dollar to keep Kaprizov in Minnesota, a disadvantage that Edmonton doesn't have to worry about for the next three years. But when stacked against the possibility of staring down another doomsday scenario in 2028, the Wild should be glad to take the eight years, regardless of the cost.
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