Matt Boldy's Contract Is the Minnesota Wild's True Stanley Cup Window

Of all the debates of what the Minnesota Wild should target, might land, or will give up at the March 6 trade deadline, the talk boils down to one fundamental question.

What, exactly, is the Wild's window?

Bill Guerin has said the organization is in the third year of its five-year plan, and he's aiming to lift the Stanley Cup by June 2028. Does that mean the Wild are in the window now? If so, rental options like Artemi Panarin, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, or Boone Jenner make a lot of sense. If not, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

Here's another complicating factor: The Quinn Hughes trade. By itself, the splash moved the Wild up from a Wild Card-ish team to, at worst, a secondary contender in the Western Conference. It also puts an extra hurdle on the Wild's plans. With Hughes set to hit unrestricted free agency in summer 2027, the Wild have to sell their new superstar on signing long-term.

Is immediate playoff success a prerequisite for a contract? If so, it's go-time, no matter what superteams are in the way.

Because of this, the sweet spot might feel like going all-in on someone who matches with the Hughes window of contention. That is, players who are signed through this year and through next. The gold standard for this is aging two-way center Ryan O'Reilly. O'Reilly is averaging nearly a point per game, is a former Conn Smythe winner, and has a dirt-cheap contract at $4.5 million. Minnesota could easily fit that in next year, even with Kirill Kaprizov's salary exploding to $17 million.

It's going to be tempting to go all-in on the Hughes window. But spending premium assets to maximize their chances for the next two years shouldn't be the primary goal. It should be the fallback option. That's because to build something sustainable, Hughes' current contract can't be seen as "The Window."

It's Matt Boldy's deal.

Boldy's contract runs through the end of this season, and four more after that, paying him $7 million annually. The 24-year-old has entered his superstar era this year. Even after missing the team's most recent three games due to injury, Boldy is still holding onto fourth-place in the NHL in goals (27) and 15th in shots on goal (157). All on a pact that allocates just 7.3% of the salary cap to him this year, a slice of the pie that will drop to 6.2% by the 2027-28 season.

That signing can be Guerin's superpower as he navigates the next half-decade. Already, it's allowed him to "overpay" Kaprizov, the soon-to-be highest-paid player in the NHL. The most the Wild are spending on their two best forwards is locked in through the rest of the decade at $24 million. Looking at the average, and we're talking two Mikko Rantanen-type contracts for two players who are as good or better. 

It will also come in handy if (and, judging by the good vibes, when?) Hughes re-signs in Minnesota. Hughes has stepped into the Wild lineup and immediately made a convincing case that he's the best player on the team. Erik Karlsson is the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL at $11.5 million, and has been since 2019. However, from Hughes' standpoint, how can he not ask for $17 million annually if he goes for an eight-year max extension? And if you're the Wild, what position are you really in to say no?

Should that scenario come to fruition, the naysayers are going to be there on Day 1. This is another Zach Parise/Ryan Suter situation. You can't win a Stanley Cup paying two players $34 million.

Maybe they'd be right, except that Boldy's deal would somewhat offset those costs. $34 million to Kaprizov and Hughes would be just under 30% of the Wild's cap in 2027-28. That's a lot. The Florida Panthers, last year's Cup winners, had their top two players (Aleksander Barkov/Sergei Bobrovsky) count for just 22.6% of the salary cap last year.

Here's every Cup winner in the salary cap era, ranked by the highest percentage their team invested in their top-two players:

1. 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks: 29.5% (Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger)
2. 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings: 28.4% (Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk)
3. 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins: 25.5% (Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby)
4. 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins: 24.9% (Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby)
5. 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes: 24.4% (Doug Weight, Rod Brind'Amour)
6. 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins: 24.2% (Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury)
7. 2023-24 Florida Panthers: 24.0% (Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky)
8. 2017-18 Washington Capitals: 23.1% (Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov)
9. 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights: 22.8% (Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo)
10. 2024-25 Florida Panthers: 24.0% (Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky)
11. 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks: 22.4% (Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet)
12. 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche: 22.4% (Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar)
13. 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning: 22.1% (Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos)
14. 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning: 22.1% (Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, again)
15. 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings: 21.5% (Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar)
16. 2013-14 Los Angeles Kings: 21.5% (Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, again)
17. 2010-11 Boston Bruins: 21.0% (Zdeno Chara, Tim Thomas)
18. 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks: 21.0% (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews)
19. 2018-19 St. Louis Blues: 18.9% (Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko)
20. 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks: 18.2% (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews)

Only three teams have won a Cup, with their two best players accounting for over a quarter of the cap. In each case, you had at least one all-time great in the mix.

But Boldy's cap hit means that even with $34 million invested in Kaprizov and Hughes, the Wild would only spend, at most, 36.1% of their cap on their three foundational players. That's a winnable formula. The 2015-16 Penguins won with 35.6% of their cap space in Crosby, Malkin, and Letang. Heck, the 2023-24 Panthers won with 35.3% of their cap invested in Barkov, Bobrovsky, and Matthew Tkachuk.

In all likelihood, the cap hit drops every year from there. As long as Kaprizov, Hughes, and Boldy bring superstar impact to the table, Minnesota has a chance to win through the 2023 season.

Because of that, the priority at the trade deadline has to be long-term, sustainable impact. O'Reilly, Stamkos, or Malkin would be awesome as short-term boosts. However, if it comes at the sacrifice of adding a player like, say, Robert Thomas, who is 26 years old and cost-controlled through the Boldy window? That wouldn't be worth it.

It's hard for even elite teams to win in a narrow window. The Colorado Avalanche have a Cup, but they also only have one Cup, despite almost a half-decade with Nathan MacKinnon and Makar on sweetheart deals. As important as winning this year is to the fans, Guerin has to balance maximizing their shot at winning in 2025-26 with building a team that can lift the Cup anytime between now and when the clock runs out on that incredible Boldy deal.