By Tony Abbott -
Back in October, Bill Guerin posed a simple question about Matt Boldy to The Athletic's Joe Smith: "You tell me. What wingers are better than him?"
At the time, the list wasn't very long. The Minnesota Wild's "second star" was already in the top-20 wingers, according to NHL Network. Jack Fresher, or JFresh, of Elite Prospects ranked him 17th in the league, ahead of bona fide high-end players like Kyle Connor, Brady Tkachuk, and Filip Forsberg. The Athletic's Player Tiers was even higher on him, placing Boldy ahead of all but nine wingers.
Obviously, it's a subjective question, and 10 different people might have produced 10 different lists when asked that question before the season started. Still, no matter who created the list or who was on it, it's a virtual guarantee that there would be a lot fewer names on it today.
We're approaching Game 40 of the season, and it's impossible to dismiss Boldy's tear to start the year as a hot streak. On Saturday night -- Game 39 for Boldy and the Wild -- Boldy claimed the team lead in goals with his 23rd and 24th of the season, and is up to 45 points on the season. The 24-year-old has enjoyed hot starts before, but would often hit a slump that would derail a true breakout season. If that slump is coming, we haven't seen it yet.
Matt Boldy, Time To Reach 45 Points By Season:
2022-23: 67 games
2023-24: 50 games
2024-25: 50 games
2025-26: 39 games
At this point, it'll be shocking if this doesn't go down as the year Boldy finally takes "The Leap." Boldy is currently on pace for 50 goals -- a would-be Wild record -- and 95 points. His upside has taken an upturn in the past two weeks, even with Quinn Hughes joining the team. The All-World defenseman has assisted on Boldy's past three goals, after all.
We've seen Boldy go on tears before, but he's never sustained something quite this good, this long. Maybe it's an awkward data point to not wait until Game 40, but this is Boldy's best 39-game stretch in any season by a wide margin. That's impressive, but not nearly as impressive as matching Kirill Kaprizov's output almost perfectly.
Boldy's 24 goals are one ahead, and his 45 points are one behind the Wild's $17 million man. That's no criticism of Kaprizov, who comes into Monday tied with Jason Robertson for fifth in the NHL with goals, and eighth in the league in points. Instead, it's a testament to just how high Boldy's stock is rising, keeping up with a player who was an MVP favorite at this time last season.
Usually, when you see these kinds of results from a "second star," you can credit the "Batman" for elevating "Robin's" numbers. Kaprizov and Boldy make for a lethal battery on the power play, but Boldy has thrived away as the primary driver of his own line at 5-on-5. Boldy has spent just 36.5% of his 5-on-5 minutes with Kaprizov, and when Boldy has been on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson, the Wild have out-scored opponents 12-2.
Recency bias can overwhelm us, but it's still probably a bridge too far to suggest Boldy has leapt over Kaprizov. Kaprizov can run off a stretch where he scores nearly a goal per game for two months. It's telling that we're treating Boldy's production as a major revelation, while Kaprizov's nearly-identical numbers feel ordinary for him. But there's no doubt Boldy is closing the gap. The question is: How much?
All three of the lists we mentioned earlier were solid on their top-three wingers, in some order: Kaprizov, Nikita Kucherov, and David Pastrnak. If we average out their placings on each list, the top-15 breaks down as such (tiebreaker goes to the highest rank on any list):
- Nikita Kucherov (Avg Rank: 1.00)
- David Pastrnak (2.33)
- KIRILL KAPRIZOV (2.67)
- Mikko Rantanen (5.00)
- Mitch Marner (5.33)
- Matthew Tkachuk (6.00)
- Artemi Panarin (7.33)
- William Nylander (7.33)
- Sam Reinhart (8.00)
- Jake Guentzel (11.33)
- Brendon Hagel (11.67)
- Jason Robertson (13.67)
- Jesper Bratt (13.67)
- Kyle Connor (14.67)
- MATT BOLDY (15.33)
Boldy started the year at the very fringes of the top-15. Let's see how our 15 heroes have fared in terms of points per game (tiebreaker goes to goals):
- Kucherov, 1.44
- Rantanen, 1.42
- Connor, 1.25
- Nylander, 1.24
- Pastrnak, 1.21
- KAPRIZOV, 1.18
- Robertson, 1.18
- BOLDY, 1.13
- Marner, 1.08
- Reinhart, 1.05
- Guentzel, 1.03
- Panarin, 0.97
- Hagel, 0.94
- Bratt, 0.81
- Tkachuk, DNP
Of course, we know that points are a big part of a forward's value, but it's not the end-all, be-all. Defense comes into play, and the ability to draw power plays without going to the penalty box matters a ton. So, let's take a look at how these players stack up through the lens of Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement, which tries to measure all-around value into an easy-to-digest number.
- Marner, 4.3 SPAR
- Robertson, 3.3
- BOLDY, 3.2
- Guentzel, 3.2
- Connor, 2.7
- Panarin, 2.7
- Hagel, 2.4
- Rantanen, 2.4
- KAPRIZOV, 2.3
- Nylander, 2.1
- Bratt, 1.9
- Kucherov, 1.8
- Pastrnak, 1.6
- Reinhart, 1.3
- Tkachuk, DNP
It's pretty indisputable that Boldy has moved past Bratt, Hagel, Panarin, and Reinhart. That puts him on the fringes of the top-10, automatically. We can also firmly keep Kucherov, Pastrnak, and Kaprizov in the top-3, given their reputation and production. Robertson's edged out Boldy in points and SPAR, so that also limits Boldy's ceiling to fifth. Make it sixth, giving Matty Tkachuk some deference for wherever he comes back.
Now it gets interesting: Where does he land in the 6-to-11 range? Ultimately, it comes down to personal preference, but we're talking about some fascinating debates. To recap, this group comes down to, in alphabetical order:
Boldy
Connor
Guentzel
Marner
Nylander
Rantanen
Your mileage may vary, but here's one opinion as to where these shake out:
1) Marner -- It's hard to discount either of these two things: His impact with the Vegas Golden Knights, and the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs have completely fallen apart without him. He feels like an MVP candidate this year.
2) Rantanen -- He's putting up elite numbers on his second team, and with the Dallas Stars, he's arguably the best player on a contender.
(small gap)
3) Boldy -- Homer pick? Maybe, maybe, but Boldy's contributions on both sides of the puck can't be ignored. His shorthanded chops have been a great development, and he's always been a low-key elite shutdown forward, especially with Eriksson Ek beside him. If his scoring is equivalent to this tier, the rest of his game makes a difference here.
(small gap)
4) Guentzel -- Another player who puts up great numbers wherever he goes. He's 31, but not yet on the downswing of his career, and his passable defense elevates him over the rest in this mini-tier.
5) Connor -- Yes, defense matters, but so does scoring goals, and few do it better than Connor. Dude's averaged 40 goals per 82 games in the 2020s, gotta give him some props for it.
6) Nylander -- Great production, coming off three-straight 40-goal campaigns. But someone's gotta be here, and his defense has graded worse than Connor for this season and last.
Again, your mileage may vary, and people who've watched other players for 82 games may well bring a different and valid perspective to the table. But it's hard to put Boldy outside the top-10 wingers right now, and that's a pretty remarkable development for the Wild.
Boldy's not just showing himself to be a "second star" forward in Minnesota, but he's pushing to be a legitimate 1B to Kaprizov's 1A. If we're still having this conversation by Game 82, it will go a long way to helping the Wild's playoff chances.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
-
7
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.