By Tony Abbott -
It's easy to get wrapped up in the exploits of the Minnesota Wild's young core. Brock Faber, Matt Boldy, and Marco Rossi are having extremely strong seasons and are all under the age of 23. Even "elder statesmen" like Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov are 27 and 26, respectively. Wild fans can even get wrapped up in prospects like Danila Yurov and Jesper Wallstedt.
It makes sense because when you look at the top of the Wild's scoring charts, you'll find those five players in five of the six top spots. Why would anyone pay attention, then, to 36-year-old Mats Zuccarello?
Zuccarello gets dinged for being older in Minnesota's attention economy. His reputation is also likely colored by the criticisms surrounding his contract extension from September, which takes him into his age-38 season. (Though, in fairness to Minnesota, look at what happened after the last widely criticized contract the Wild signed Zuccarello to.)
"The Lizard of Oslo" is even being phased out of the league's best bromance. From the 2021-22 season to last year, Zuccarello played with Kaprizov for 80.6% of his 5-on-5 minutes. That figure is down to 63.5% this year and has been dropping lately thanks to John Hynes favoring building chemistry between Kaprizov and Boldy.
You might read all that and think Zuccarello is fading away. Instead, he's a stealth team-MVP candidate for the Wild, who will be scoreboard-watching tonight in hopes that they can remain three points back of a Wild Card spot going into Saturday's game against the Buffalo Sabres.
Zuccarello is tied for third on the team in scoring, matching Matt Boldy's 40 points on the season. He's scoring at a respectable clip at 5-on-5 (1.86 points per hour, fifth on the team), but his biggest value add to Minnesota has been his work on the power play.
Kaprizov might own the edge in total points (25 to 21) and even points per hour (7.93 to 7.32), but there's a strong case that it's Zuccarello who is the secret sauce to making the power play work this year. With Zuccarello doing his thing on the power play, the Wild are scoring at a rate of 10.88 goals per hour. Compare him to the 158 forwards with 100-plus power play minutes, and he sits 32nd, with most of the names ahead of him being on elite power plays like the Edmonton Oilers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs.
More importantly, he stands well above the rest of his teammates. Eriksson Ek is second on the team with 9.92 on-ice goals per hour, a gap of almost a full goal. That suggests the top unit struggles mightily whenever Zuccarello is out of the lineup. In the 172 power play minutes the Wild have had with Zuccarello, they've scored 30 goals. In the 128 minutes without him, they've scored 8, or 3.75 per hour.
Coincidence or not, when Zuccarello's on that unit, it sings. But when he isn't, it sags.
But more than just power play success is driving Zuccarello's strong season. He's also providing high-end two-way play and proving that he's not solely a product of Kaprizov in the process. Zuccarello ranks fifth on the Wild's regular forwards, controlling 52.2% of the expected goals at 5-on-5.
That success has grown since joining a second line that features Rossi and Marcus Johansson. With just 69 minutes under their belt, it's early. But their nice underlying numbers hint beyond their break-even (one goal for, one against) results.
The trio is controlling 64.0% of the expected goals total, the highest of any of Minnesota's lines with 30-plus minutes. Even the combined powers of Kaprizov, Boldy, and Eriksson Ek aren't touching it (62.7% of the expected goals over 145 minutes). Depth scoring is a big concern for the team, especially if they're loading their three biggest stars into a super line. The Wild are counting on Zuccarello as a second threat, and he seems to adjust well to the role.
Add all those qualities up, and you have a player who's neck-and-neck for the distinction of having contributed most to the Wild this season. Here are Minnesota's top skaters in Standings Points Above Replacement so far:
1) Kirill Kaprizov, 3.7
T-2) Brock Faber, 3.3
T-2) Mats Zuccarello, 3.3
4) Joel Eriksson Ek, 3.0
5) Matt Boldy, 2.9
Any of the players can win that race, depending on how the last 30 or so games of the season go. Regardless of who wins, when we look back on 2023-24 and praise Kaprizov's scoring, Faber's Calder Trophy push, or Boldy's blistering scoring runs, let's take a minute to remember just how valuable of a piece Zuccarello has been to the Wild's puzzle.
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