By Tony Abbott -
Marcus Foligno has been in a Minnesota Wild sweater for almost eight years and over 500 games. How many of those have been on the top line? Without an exact count, a rough estimate would be "not many."
Foligno has long been the Wild's "identity" player, the example which GM Bill Guerin wants his team to follow. He can chip in a goal occasionally, but he frontloads his game with a tough forechecking style and can get into scraps when needed.
But -- surprise! -- Foligno is on the top line for the injured Wild, skating alongside star forwards Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi. That duo hit a skid with Mats Zuccarello during their latest slump, and Gustav Nyquist and Vinnie Hinostroza didn't stop the bleeding. With few other options, John Hynes turned to the guy who, if there's gonna be bleeding, usually is the one who starts it.
And it's worked out beautifully. This trio's only spent 57 minutes together at 5-on-5, but holy Moose, what an incredible almost-hour of hockey it's been. They've out-scored opponents 5-3 while probably getting a bit unlucky. Their expected goals against during that time are under 1.00, which speaks to a level of defensive excellence that's typical of Foligno's lines. Ultimately, they're controlling a staggering 81.8% of the expected goal share.
That will likely fall as the sample size gets bigger, but even so, these early returns show there's something there. And as surprising as it is to see Foligno pulling top-line duty... maybe we shouldn't be shocked.
Foligno has a reputation for being a throwback to an era of NHL tough guys (though opposing fans might use different words), but that never fully gave him credit for what he brings. He lays the body, but it's always in service of lockdown defense. His hands must feel like rocks to the faces they make contact with, but he's averaged 17 goals per 82 games during the 2020s, so it's not like they're made of stone.
While his famous line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Jordan Greenway weren't anyone's platonic ideal of a top line, they got results that rivaled the best lines in the league. Foligno's scoring touch hasn't fully rebounded since the Wild broke up that line two years ago. Still, there's nothing that boosts scoring like having linemates that can score.
Even with a recent hot streak, Foligno's point totals aren't going to scream "impact player." His 13 goals and 26 points are sixth and tied for eighth, respectively, on a team that can't score. Expand that lens to the rest of the NHL, Foligno isn't in the top 200 of either stat. Still, Foligno isn't just having a career year by some measures. He's been a top-50 player in the NHL and is even making a run for team MVP.
Believe it.
Foligno has always been a favorite in Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement metric. His combination of elite defense and the ability to drive offense plays very well. But this year, he's taken his defense up a notch from "elite" to "best of the best," and that jump has Foligno sitting with incredible company.
Foligno entered Tuesday as being worth 4.3 points in the standings. Only Marco Rossi (4.5 SPAR) is ahead of him on the Wild, and Foligno himself is tied for 39th in SPAR, alongside Jesper Bratt and Sidney Crosby. However, Bratt and Crosby have triple the points Foligno has, and they each have hundreds more minutes of ice time to generate value.
That's gonna raise eyebrows. How good can defense be?, you may be asking.
Pretty damn good. Foligno allows 1.79 expected goals against per hour at 5-on-5, the third-best rate in hockey among 366 forwards with 500-plus minutes. He's also one of 76 forwards to allow fewer than two actual goals per hour. And on the penalty kill, he's been the Wild's only rock. His 8.94 goals against per hour doesn't look good, but look at the context, and it's a minor miracle. The rest of the team gives up 10.62 goals per hour while shorthanded, which would be the second-worst rate in the NHL.
Foligno's even-strength defense is tied with Sam Reinhart for No. 1 in the NHL, and his shorthanded defense is in the top 10. In terms of overall defensive value, Foligno is tops in the NHL with 9.7 Goals Above Replacement (translating to about 3.0 points in the standings). It's not just the best defensive performance this year but one of the best in the Analytics Era.
Most Defensive GAR in a season, Forwards, 2007-08 to Present:
1. Pavel Datsyuk, 2009-10: 9.9
2. Marcus Foligno, 2018-19: 9.8
3. MARCUS FOLIGNO, 2024-25: 9.7
4. Logan O'Connor, 2024-25: 9.6
T-5. Pavel Datsyuk, 2007-08: 9.2
T-5. Patrice Bergeron, 2021-22: 9.2
7. Ilya Mikheyev, 2024-25: 9.1
8. Mikko Koivu, 2017-18: 8.7
T-9. Daymond Langkow, 2009-10: 8.1
T-9. Patrice Bergeron, 2016-17: 8.1
That's a crazy list, with Foligno's season only being bested by a three-time Selke Trophy winner and Hall of Famer... and himself. It's also interesting that Foligno now has two better defensive seasons than a six-time Selke winner in Bergeron.
Who knows how long the Foligno Top Line Experiment will last? Whenever Kaprizov returns, his line will be the top line, and Zuccarello will almost certainly be his other winger. But the Wild could keep their experiment going by having another center (Eriksson Ek upon return?) play with Kaprizov and keep Foligno with Boldy and Rossi.
It'd be worthwhile to try heading into the playoffs. Coaches love not to mess up the things that work, and that line is working right now. Meanwhile, Boldy's looking for his first postseason breakout, and perhaps Foligno's forechecking can create space for the skilled winger to operate.
But the biggest reason to have Foligno in a top-six role is simple: If he's one of Minnesota's best players, it makes sense to get him on the ice as often as possible. And this season, Foligno fits that bill.
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