By Tony Abbott -
In hockey, you often ride the hot hand. Great chemistry between players is rarely the result of struggling and then finding a breakthrough. Usually, you have it or you don't, and once you have it, coaches are loathe to give it up. So it's a bit eyebrow-raising that on Sunday, John Hynes broke up his productive top line for the second consecutive game, swapping center Marco Rossi onto a lower line.
In isolation, neither change should have stood out. Hynes flipped Rossi with fourth-line center Marat Khusnutdinov for a few shifts at the tail end of the second period in Friday's game at the Anaheim Ducks. Coaches send players, especially young ones, messages all the time. It happens.
Rossi responded with a goal and assist in the third period; the Wild won, and everyone seemed to move on. Even on Sunday, the Wild needed a goal to tie and loaded up their top line with Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. You can't blame a coach for doing that, especially when it netted them the goal that forced overtime.
But after Sunday's game, The Athletic's Michael Russo wrote about Hynes' dissatisfaction with Rossi's consistency. "[Hynes] knows Rossi's getting points but feels like his game's been up and down. For instance, after taking three penalties in a four-game stretch, Hynes thought Rossi was good in San Jose. But in Anaheim, Hynes felt Rossi needed to be harder on plays and manage the puck better."
Rossi's 23, and his game is still developing, so learning moments will happen. Ideally, Hynes sends his message, and the extremely driven center works to clean up those mistakes and continues his terrific start to the season.
But also... hopefully, Rossi's leash doesn't stay this short because his season has been extremely consistent. The top line of Kaprizov, Rossi, and Mats Zuccarello has outscored opponents by a 12-6 margin at 5-on-5 this season. Looking at Rossi himself, he's only been outscored at 5-on-5 in three of their 15 games and got the better of the expected goals share in 10 of 15 games. Say what you want, but that feels pretty consistent.
Then there's the offensive output, arguably more consistent than any other forward on the team not named "Kaprizov." Rossi entered Tuesday with 12 even-strength points (tied for 13th in the NHL) and 4.51 individual expected goals (tied for 11th).
Looking at the game logs, we can see how steadily he's generated chances night after night. Here's the number of his individual xG for each game and how they ranked among Wild forwards on that night:
Game 1: 0.09 (6th)
Game 2: 0.48 (2nd)
Game 3: 0.26 (3rd)
Game 4: 0.29 (3rd)
Game 5: 0.73 (1st)
Game 6: 0.08 (6th)
Game 7: 0.07 (3rd)
Game 8: 0.07 (6th)
Game 9: 0.27 (2nd)
Game 10: 0.69 (1st)
Game 11: 0.18 (5th)
Game 12: 0.02 (4th)
Game 13: 0.57 (1st)
Game 14: 0.50 (1st)
Game 15: 0.22 (3rd)
In bold is every game where Rossi had at least 0.20 expected goals at even-strength and finished the night in the top three among Wild forwards. That number is nine of 15 games. Compare that to, say, Boldy, who has had just five such games in 15 efforts, and we can get a good sense of how consistent Rossi has been.
Now, points aren't everything, and neither are scoring chances. But on a team tied for 27th with 2.25 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5, you've got to take the offense you can get, even if those offensive players are prone to an extra mistake or lapse. Rossi's play should earn him the same benefit of the doubt that gets extended to less impactful players (whom I'm sure you can name in the comments).
To be fair, there's a balancing act in this -- how much do you prioritize imparting a lesson during a player's growing pains versus not throwing out prospects with the Zamboni water -- and to his credit, Hynes hasn't made any missteps yet. But it can be tricky, and Hynes needs to navigate these waters carefully to enhance the growth in his budding center's game without derailing his (or the top line's) success.
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