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  • Marco Rossi Is Still Looking For the Benefit Of the Doubt


    Image courtesy of Jessica Alcheh-Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    In hockey, you often ride the hot hand. Great chemistry between players is rarely the result of struggling and then finding a breakthrough. Usually, you have it or you don't, and once you have it, coaches are loathe to give it up. So it's a bit eyebrow-raising that on Sunday, John Hynes broke up his productive top line for the second consecutive game, swapping center Marco Rossi onto a lower line.

    In isolation, neither change should have stood out. Hynes flipped Rossi with fourth-line center Marat Khusnutdinov for a few shifts at the tail end of the second period in Friday's game at the Anaheim Ducks. Coaches send players, especially young ones, messages all the time. It happens.

    Rossi responded with a goal and assist in the third period; the Wild won, and everyone seemed to move on. Even on Sunday, the Wild needed a goal to tie and loaded up their top line with Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. You can't blame a coach for doing that, especially when it netted them the goal that forced overtime.

    But after Sunday's game, The Athletic's Michael Russo wrote about Hynes' dissatisfaction with Rossi's consistency. "[Hynes] knows Rossi's getting points but feels like his game's been up and down. For instance, after taking three penalties in a four-game stretch, Hynes thought Rossi was good in San Jose. But in Anaheim, Hynes felt Rossi needed to be harder on plays and manage the puck better."

    Rossi's 23, and his game is still developing, so learning moments will happen. Ideally, Hynes sends his message, and the extremely driven center works to clean up those mistakes and continues his terrific start to the season. 

    But also... hopefully, Rossi's leash doesn't stay this short because his season has been extremely consistent. The top line of Kaprizov, Rossi, and Mats Zuccarello has outscored opponents by a 12-6 margin at 5-on-5 this season. Looking at Rossi himself, he's only been outscored at 5-on-5 in three of their 15 games and got the better of the expected goals share in 10 of 15 games. Say what you want, but that feels pretty consistent.

    Then there's the offensive output, arguably more consistent than any other forward on the team not named "Kaprizov." Rossi entered Tuesday with 12 even-strength points (tied for 13th in the NHL) and 4.51 individual expected goals (tied for 11th).

    Looking at the game logs, we can see how steadily he's generated chances night after night. Here's the number of his individual xG for each game and how they ranked among Wild forwards on that night:

    Game 1: 0.09 (6th)
    Game 2: 0.48 (2nd)
    Game 3: 0.26 (3rd)
    Game 4: 0.29 (3rd)
    Game 5: 0.73 (1st)

    Game 6: 0.08 (6th)
    Game 7: 0.07 (3rd)
    Game 8: 0.07 (6th)
    Game 9: 0.27 (2nd)
    Game 10: 0.69 (1st)

    Game 11: 0.18 (5th)
    Game 12: 0.02 (4th)
    Game 13: 0.57 (1st)
    Game 14: 0.50 (1st)
    Game 15: 0.22 (3rd)

    In bold is every game where Rossi had at least 0.20 expected goals at even-strength and finished the night in the top three among Wild forwards. That number is nine of 15 games. Compare that to, say, Boldy, who has had just five such games in 15 efforts, and we can get a good sense of how consistent Rossi has been.

    Now, points aren't everything, and neither are scoring chances. But on a team tied for 27th with 2.25 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5, you've got to take the offense you can get, even if those offensive players are prone to an extra mistake or lapse. Rossi's play should earn him the same benefit of the doubt that gets extended to less impactful players (whom I'm sure you can name in the comments). 

    To be fair, there's a balancing act in this -- how much do you prioritize imparting a lesson during a player's growing pains versus not throwing out prospects with the Zamboni water -- and to his credit, Hynes hasn't made any missteps yet. But it can be tricky, and Hynes needs to navigate these waters carefully to enhance the growth in his budding center's game without derailing his (or the top line's) success.

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    You should bet on Rossi, because he's done all this with a fraction of the PP time Ek and Boldy, and Zucc get.  He's going to have up and down games, but so have those above players.  All but one player in the top-6 has been a PP or close player, so I'd love to know what more tough love Rossi needs before it gets tiresome and vers into comedy.

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    Rossi's game is not as diverse as others (see how Harty can be plugged in anywhere and succeed?), so he is bound to be back on Kap's line to hide his deficiencies. I suppose you can swap him and Ek, but Ek and Boldy are solid together (although Ek may be hurt a bit - something seems off) so i'd leave Ek and Boldy as is. Otherwise he just does not belong anywhere else on the ice now. They'll put him back on line 1, get him points with likely the second best player in the league right now (playing) and ship him out for an upgrade. that's how i see it. Bring back Tuch at deadline, as Sabres will be out of it by then. good plan. 

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    Also, this isn't just Kap helping people play better.  Hynes wanted balance and everyone but Mojo is showing it.  Rossi also scored a goal against an otherwise killer Florida team and the lone assist against the Jets.  He's doing his job against harder teams too.

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    I thought Rossi wasn't working well during the LA game, and he got demoted there a bit. During the Ducks game the flow wasn't that good either, but during the Blackhawks game, that was the whole team.

    In the 2nd period, while nothing was going right, Heinzy got out his Oester and started the blending process. Everyone got shifted around trying to find something that worked, and the Boldy-Kaprizov-Zuccarello trio got us a goal. What was interesting is that it didn't seem like Heinzy shrank his bench, he just threw out line combinations that were different the whole time. Last season, he shrank his bench tremendously. 

    Also, I wouldn't read too much into MaRat getting a "1st line" look, I think it was more of a 4th line placement and Heinzy double shifted Kaprizov and Zuccarello. If you look at the sequence, he was giving Kaprizov more minutes but was setting up Zuccarello-Hartman-Kaprizov. The strange thing was that Ek was off all game, and this rarely happens. I can't even remember the last time it happened. 

    But for the team, the puck did them no favors as it looked like it was repelling them. Passes from everyone were in the skates, except a couple of defenders. It was a lot like how the LA game looked where nobody was in the right position and if they were, the puck zagged. Honestly, it looked like the team hadn't practiced in a long time and needed a couple. 

    Hopefully that gets done this week.

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    Is it possible that Hynes is just shaking things up rather than demoting Rossi?  I thought several players coasted a bit too much for my liking during the Chicago game.  Knut seems to have a motor on him.  It could be they want to see how syncs with Kirill for a few shifts or with other guys rather than a demotion to others.  

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    I have nothing against them moving rossi around to try and shake things up, but where I have a problem is when Nojo is stapled to the 2nd line no matter how much nothing he does. If anybody should be getting a demotion it should start with that slug. He has done absolutely nothing for weeks now. 

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    16 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Rossi and Nojo will be gone at the deadline.  If they were smart spurgeon would be as well.  They are propping them up now to sell them off.  

    Not matter how smart they are Spurgeon isn't going anywhere. Doubt Guerin would even entertain calls on him. What would you expect as a return for him anyway?

    If you're so sure the other 2 are gone then maybe you can tell us what they're going to get back.

    Edited by M_Nels
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    23 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

    Not matter how smart they are Spurgeon isn't going anywhere. Doubt Guerin would even entertain calls on him. What would you expect as a return for him anyway?

    If you're so sure the other 2 are gone then maybe you can tell us what they're going to get back.

    i think MJ stays and he may have a role to play still that seems to be under the radar - and that is his PP ability. look during the playoffs, PK and PP have enormous implication, and sad to admit but MJ is the only one that you can count on to actually bring the puck into the zone consistently. he really is elite at that. seriously everyone else are not that good at it! maybe we can have him bring it up and immediately sub-out for someone HAHA what could go wrong?

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    Just looked this up again to be sure, but Rossi is tied for 28th in "Centers" (NHL stats site with said filter) with 13 points.  Wanna know who is 20?  Crosby at 16 points.  Top 10 guys are around 17-20...so the margin between bonafide top tier guys on $7-10m contracts and a vilified total trade bait passenger on an ELC is three goddamn points.

    Sorry if I'm not sold on the "he's not good enough and must be traded" assertion.

     

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    54 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

    Not matter how smart they are Spurgeon isn't going anywhere. Doubt Guerin would even entertain calls on him. What would you expect as a return for him anyway?

    If you're so sure the other 2 are gone then maybe you can tell us what they're going to get back.

    For spurgeon they are getting nothing back besides a late round pick.  It’s simply to free up 7.5mm we can use on 1 or 2 bigger RHD we desperately are going to need in the playoff.  Nojo will also be a salary dump.  Rossi you will package with a high round pick and good prospect to get a number 1C or top 6 winger that’s big and can score. No way Rossi is/should be getting 5-6mm next year so the player they trade him for can take that cap space.  Guerin needs to make some moves to make this team better.  

     

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    3 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Just looked this up again to be sure, but Rossi is tied for 28th in "Centers" (NHL stats site with said filter) with 13 points.  Wanna know who is 20?  Crosby at 16 points.  Top 10 guys are around 17-20...so the margin between bonafide top tier guys on $7-10m contracts and a vilified total trade bait passenger on an ELC is three goddamn points.

    Sorry if I'm not sold on the "he's not good enough and must be traded" assertion.

     

    Understand but the eye test says otherwise and he isn’t going to help us in April and May.  Billy knows this as well.  Same thing happens with spurgeon.  He is terrible in the playoffs

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    6 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    ship him out for an upgrade.

    I’ve got a feeling you might be right on this take. If a trade like that is made I hope it is for a young player (28) or younger. It would be best for a player that will still be making an impact in 2027. The year the Wild should be a top contender. 

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    3 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Just looked this up again to be sure, but Rossi is tied for 28th in "Centers" (NHL stats site with said filter) with 13 points.  Wanna know who is 20?  Crosby at 16 points.  Top 10 guys are around 17-20...so the margin between bonafide top tier guys on $7-10m contracts and a vilified total trade bait passenger on an ELC is three goddamn points.

    Sorry if I'm not sold on the "he's not good enough and must be traded" assertion.

     

    he is not good enough and must be traded. that goes for both Rossi and Crosby.

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    4 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    I prioritize a team winning enough regular season games to make the playoffs first...let's climb that fucking hurdle first.

    Typical MN sports fan.  Why don’t we for once actually build a team that has a chance in the playoffs and not just to get there.  We want to win the cup and sorry Rossi, Nojo, Spurgeon and a few others are not getting us there.  Don’t settle for mediocrity demand excellence.  

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    5 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    MJ is the only one that you can count on to actually bring the puck into the zone consistently.

    Sure, Johansson is good at skating the puck across the blue line and immediately turning it over to the other team. I'm not sure that brings a lot of value to the Wild, but it truly is a skill he possesses.

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    If you look at the Wilds record each year against the East and against the West they fair much better against the East because they are way less physical.  The West teams are bigger and stronger and come playoff time when the whistles go away that who we have to beat so we have to create a team that can win in those situations and having 4-5 guys on our team under 5’10 and 180 are not going to get it done.  We need 3 things in addition to Yurov coming over and Bium. We need a big top 6 RH forward to play ovechkins office on the PP.  Also need a top 1C to play with lap (Rossi is not that guy) and large RHD to play top 4 mins to take spurgeon’s spot

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    Typical my ass.  

    The Wild have to actually make the playoffs to do anything.  Building for the playoffs was what Nashville tried to do by making a huge splash in free agency: tell me how that's worked for them so far?  Keep losing like they have, then fuck the "big bad playoff" plan.

    Rossi is winning the team games, so forgive me for taking games as they come and not tripping over myself talking about games that haven't and may not happen yet.

    Tell me again what team is 2nd in the division playing Rossi on the first line?  Oh yeah, the Wild.  It's working, and I'm pleased.  Call me typical or a doomer all you want: at least I know a winning team in the moment and can appreciate it.

     

     

     

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