Jump to content
Hockey Wilderness Zone Coverage Property
  • Kaprizov Reportedly Turns Down 8-Year Extension. Now What For the Wild?


    Image courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The Minnesota Wild's plan for re-signing Kirill Kaprizov was simple: Wait until he got back to the United States and knock him over with a massive deal. Rumors circled that the Wild were willing to give Kaprizov eight years at a $16 million Average Annual Value, a contract that would make the franchise's first mega star the highest-paid in the NHL.

    It sounds like they did just that, and struck out.

    A fan base that has been nervously awaiting the news that the Wild locked up their guy is not going to receive this news well. Kaprizov hits unrestricted free agency next July 1, which kicks up the urgency to make a decision with Kaprizov. Can the Wild find a way to sign him, or do they have to start going another way?

    No one in the State of Hockey is looking for optimism at this time, but it is worth mentioning that rejecting this mega offer isn't confirmation that Kaprizov's days in Minnesota are numbered at 300 or fewer. Turning down a deal that makes you the highest paid in the NHL is admittedly a pretty big red flag, but even from a purely financial standpoint, there are reasons to reject an eight-year offer.

    Kaprizov spent his last four years (and will spend this one) as underpaid on his contract from essentially Day 1. He signed a five-year, $45 million deal ($9 million AAV), averaging 48 goals and 99 points per 82 games ever since. That could very well be a motivating factor in these negotiations.

    While most NHL players tend to opt for the security of a long-term contract -- and often, for a lot less money than $128 million -- seven- and eight-year deals tend to be extremely team-friendly for anyone in or around their prime. The cap goes up, new records get broken, and a $9 million deal in 2020 goes from being market-setting at the time to a bargain in 2025.

    Sixteen million dollars is a ton of money, and it's going to be a lot of money in the future. There's no disputing that. It'd be about 15.4% of the salary cap in 2026-27, which would be Year 1 of the deal. In Year 2, when the cap rises from $104 million to $113.5 million in 2027-28, that percentage dips to 14.1%. Let's assume the cap rises to $120 million in 2028-29. $16 million is now "just" 13.3% of the cap, the equivalent of someone making $12.7 million this season.

    Again, that's a lot of money. But assuming that Kaprizov is a player worth 15.4% of the cap today, by the time we get to Year 3, he could be an $18.5 million player on the open market.

    And that's just by Year 3, while making a pretty modest guess as to how the cap will rise. You have to bet on the cap continuing to rise, leaving Kaprizov a total bargain over the following five years.

    Putting $16 million dollars in front of Kaprizov suggests the Wild believe money is a motivating factor. Why wouldn't it be? But if money is a motivator, $16 million is going to start looking underwhelming as we creep toward 2030 and beyond, at least for a player of his stature.

    The best-case scenario for the Wild here is that Kaprizov isn't willing to go eight years, but he is willing to stay in Minnesota for three-to-five years. That's exactly what happened last time, if you'll recall. But even on a shorter deal, we shouldn't expect Kaprizov to come cheap.

    Auston Matthews did this exact thing in Toronto, inking a four-year deal with the Maple Leafs that kicked in last year at $13.25 million AAV, or 15.06% of the cap. If that's the framework for a shorter-term deal for Kaprizov, that would land at around $15.6 million of a $104 million salary cap.

    That's a great illustration of why eight years might not be appealing to Kaprizov. Why lock yourself in for eight years at $16 million if you can get $14 million over four? Or even $15 million?

    We can see potential for a contract standoff to happen over this. Bill Guerin and the Wild might think, why pay top-dollar for Kaprizov for a short-term deal? It's a fair question, but if that's what it takes to keep Kaprizov in Minnesota... they kind of have to suck it up and do it.

    There's no way Kaprizov doesn't know the leverage he has over Minnesota. They've been a superstar-starved team for two decades, and their whole plan for contention revolves around keeping him in St. Paul. Kaprizov has the ability to max out his earnings for the next three, four, or five years, while still getting to cash in again in his early 30s. 

    If he wants to.

    That's going to be the question now. Is he amenable to stay in Minnesota, or not? If Kaprizov does, it's clear that it's going to be entirely on his terms, and the Wild front office and ownership will have to smile and thank him for doing so. If not... well, let's hope that's not the case.

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    17 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    I din't have rose colored glasses.  I just think anyone happy to trash a team everyday or winning internet arguments by doing so could have better things to do 

    Um, you called me out by name. You don't have to reply to what I write and if you want to ignore the facts or truth, that's also your choice. Please don't drag me into your misery.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I'm still cautiously optimistic that he'll re-sign, however, since the cap is increasing another $8.5M next season that means a lot of teams have plenty of cap space if money is not the main driver and he truly wants to sign with a SC contender.  Right now, I'd be worried about him wanting to go to LA, NYR, even UTH, but I'd think the front runner would be TBL that'll have almost $28M in cap space and their core stars already locked up.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    32 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    Um, you called me out by name. You don't have to reply to what I write and if you want to ignore the facts or truth, that's also your choice. Please don't drag me into your misery.

    What misery?  Being wrong about something on a board with 30-50 people in it?  Pretty strong word to use. Me being right or wrong isn't some great life changing event or something.  ODC's entire Persona was WHAT IF KAP LEAVES every single, fucking day.

    I don't post everyday is if the Wild suck, always suck, will never get better, and (in some cases) trash the owner and GM like they are scum.

    But go ahead and whine about people thinking your (and some other posters) woe is the team and the suck forever act isn't confusing and tiresome.

    If anything, I only get annoyed at people when they act at extremes.  The team isn't the worst, and the team isn't the best either.  My "misery" as you call it is realistic optimism.  I actually..."like" being a fan of the team.  I actually "like" being here, and post like it most of the time.

    No one's forcing naysayers to post like jerks.  That's their own choice.

     

     

     

     

    Edited by Citizen Strife
    • Thanks 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Believe me, watching ODC post, Protec being endlessly annoyed that Rossi or Johansson were on the roster, and Dean doing whatever he does sounds like misery to me.  Being negative is one thing, but they take it to extremes that seem unhealthy.

    It's not just Scalp, trust me.

     

    Edited by Citizen Strife
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    19 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Being negative is one thing, but they take it to extremes that seem unhealthy.

    I had to pull out the block feature on this website and use it judiciously.  Sometimes I wonder if they all are the same guy.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    22 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    What misery?  Being wrong about something on a board with 30-50 people in it?  Pretty strong word to use. Me being right or wrong isn't some great life changing event or something.  ODC's entire Persona was WHAT IF KAP LEAVES every single, fucking day.

    I don't post everyday is if the Wild suck, always suck, will never get better, and (in some cases) trash the owner and GM like they are scum.

    But go ahead and whine about people thinking your (and some other posters) woe is the team and the suck forever act isn't confusing and tiresome.

    If anything, I only get annoyed at people when they act at extremes.  The team isn't the worst, and the team isn't the best either.  My "misery" as you call it is realistic optimism.  I actually..."like" being a fan of the team.  I actually "like" being here, and post like it most of the time.

    No one's forcing naysayers to post like jerks.  That's their own choice.

     

     

     

     

    Obviously you're looking for a fight. Or maybe just sympathy, not sure. I am, by every definition of the word, a realist. I see what the Wild are, and always have been, a mediocre team that never changes. Hockey is my favorite sport and I am a fan of the Wild. I want the team to get BETTER, not just live on the fringes for their entire existence. Leipold is obviously more interested in steady revenue then seeking a championship. Am I wrong about that? If so, prove it. Billy was hired to make the playoffs every year, he's done that. But is that ALL you want from your team? Don't you want something better? What is the definition of insanity again? Again, I am a realist, I see what's going on (and so does Kaprizov), and I want something better. Is that awful?

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Fine.  Fine.  You think I want to fight or something.

    We ALL want the Wild to be better.  My point is posting every day as if the team is a poisonous, filthy waste of space that has no redeeming value and the owner and GM are incompetent is not my way of doing things.  Why even choose to be a fan of something just to be a dick about it or come off that way to members of its fan base? 

     

    Moreso, does that mentality end of the team wins in the second round, third round,, SCF, winning it?  Does it end if the team chooses to tank?  It is still very possible someone will just say, "Who cares if they tank now, they'll pick the wrong guy anyway.  "Cause that's how they always are.". That's the extreme I loathe.  The thing is, that sort of thing can very well happen.

    Instead of acting that way, I think about the positive.  I don't go looking for fights, cause it doesn't do me any good.  I just think, ok.  Bad game, Guy didn't sign a contract.  Oh well.  Off to work I guess.

    My mantra the older I get is "rather than think about angry stuff, I think about something else that will make me happy instead.". That's how I choose to act on and off this site with the team and fan base.

    If that comes off as weird or rude to you, or I misjudged you as one of those people then I apologize.  

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    12 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Fine.  Fine.  You think I want to fight or something.

    We ALL want the Wild to be better.  My point is posting every day as if the team is a poisonous, filthy waste of space that has no redeeming value and the owner and GM are incompetent is not my way of doing things.  Why even choose to be a fan of something just to be a dick about it or come off that way to members of its fan base? 

     

    Moreso, does that mentality end of the team wins in the second round, third round,, SCF, winning it?  Does it end if the team chooses to tank?  It is still very possible someone will just say, "Who cares if they tank now, they'll pick the wrong guy anyway.  "Cause that's how they always are.". That's the extreme I loathe.  The thing is, that sort of thing can very well happen.

    Instead of acting that way, I think about the positive.  I don't go looking for fights, cause it doesn't do me any good.  I just think, ok.  Bad game, Guy didn't sign a contract.  Oh well.  Off to work I guess.

    My mantra the older I get is "rather than think about angry stuff, I think about something else that will make me happy instead.". That's how I choose to act on and off this site with the team and fan base.

    If that comes off as weird or rude to you, or I misjudged you as one of those people then I apologize.  

     

     

    And you're still calling me names, wow! I get it, you're an eternal optimist that likes to believe in fantasies. Please don't target me and call me names because you don't like my opinion of the truth. It's really ok if people aren't like you or share the same opinion, didn't anyone ever teach you that?

    Edited by Scalptrash
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Something that seems to have been missed and is very important, in my opinion, is that the report says that Kaprizov and his agent met with Billy.  If he was dead set on not re-signing, there would be no reason for him to meet with Billy.  Other players in similar situations who want out, just let their agent do the “dirty” work.

    My best guess is that the 16M x 8 offer reduced or eliminated the NMC in the last year or two or that maybe he wants a shorter deal in case the Wild still can’t contend after a couple more years.  
     

    If he actually met with Billy to say he wants out, I don’t think Billy would be so calm and I don’t think Kaprizov and his agent would remain silent when Billy said he isn’t worried.  There would be no reason to try to hide anything as Kaprizov holds all the leverage with a full NMC.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    The owner certainly shouldn't have stated anything like, we're pretty much there.

    That always seemed like something you shouldn't say until they actually have agreed to terms and you are simply waiting for them to have the contract in front of them with the pen in hand.

    The speculation is tiresome, like people speculating that Rossi might just play in the Swiss league because the Wild hurt his feelings...

    We'll see where it ends up when the decision is made(sign or trade). Definitely want to see Kaprizov with the Wild, but if the price would drive above $16M, one has to wonder if you couldn't deliver better results from two $8.5M players.

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    13 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

    Russo confirmed it

    Russo also likes to stir the pot.

    There's been many instances where what he reported didn't match reality.  Recent example:  Rossi and Wild further apart than ever.  Then almost immediately after that, Rossi signs.

    Edited by raithis
    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    7 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Kap And Fiala's best seasons at the same time didn't move the playoff needle.  I will readily admit not knowing the answer if that didn't even work.

    I think the lack of size in our D core was a problem that year during the playoffs. I’m not sure exactly what the analytics are but successful playoff teams seem to dominate the net front. That’s one reason I was glad they picked up Jiri. I’m hoping as he gets older he can add bulk and help in this regard. Charlie S also has potential to add size and strength upfront. So add a high skill scorer or develop an ELC guy to replace Fiala while addressing the team’s overall lack of size. Everyone is tired of waiting but I think some moves in this direction have begun. The whole league is going to try to copycat Florida because they are having a lot of playoff success with dominating the net front. People say they play Dump&Chase but it looks more like Dump&Crush to me. 

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, WildNotMild said:

    Something that seems to have been missed and is very important, in my opinion, is that the report says that Kaprizov and his agent met with Billy.  If he was dead set on not re-signing, there would be no reason for him to meet with Billy.  Other players in similar situations who want out, just let their agent do the “dirty” work.

    My best guess is that the 16M x 8 offer reduced or eliminated the NMC in the last year or two or that maybe he wants a shorter deal in case the Wild still can’t contend after a couple more years.  
     

    If he actually met with Billy to say he wants out, I don’t think Billy would be so calm and I don’t think Kaprizov and his agent would remain silent when Billy said he isn’t worried.  There would be no reason to try to hide anything as Kaprizov holds all the leverage with a full NMC.

    Bingo.

    There's a lot of speculation about what a contract rejection means and most of it just people interpreting that he doesn't want to play here or that he is greedy or something. 

    The way it's being reported on is also click-bait bs, and people who have negative opinions about the team and people who worry about the bottom falling out of any progress that might be made are jumping to extremes.

    If a contract was rejected, so what, it just means that Kirill has something else in mind.  As WildNotMild points out, he wouldn't be here talking things out if he wasn't interested in coming to an agreement.

    To the naysayer's credit, it may well be that he wants to know he is signing on with a team he can believe in and Guerin might have to do a little convincing.  

    In the end, I think Kaprizov and Guerin will find common ground.  Kaprizov's involvement seems to indicate he is willing to do that and it's kind of a repeat of the last time he signed.  The Wild wanted one thing, and it took both of them being at the same table and something got worked out in a few days.  This seems the same to me.  And the ridiculous speculation seems about the same as well unfortunately.

    We may not all agree on this, but it really doesn't make sense for him to take the time to get involved if he just wants out and is that negative about the team or it's direction.  He may need some reassurance, but it sure seems like he's still interested in being there. 

    One thing I think we can all wholeheartedly agree on though is that Leipold needs some quiet time in the corner.  If anyone is making this worse and less likely that Kaprizov re-signs, it's probably him.  Bring him in when Kaprizov signs, but not until then.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    22 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    If his camp is asking for a substantial AAV increase beyond the $16M I think the Wild should move on and find a different path towards contention

    I agree.  There is a point where the contract becomes Greedy.  Anything over $16M is Greedy.   You can sign 2 pretty dammed good players at $8M for that kind of money.  I have to believe that it is term... and yes, I would be okay with a 3 year deal.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    19 hours ago, AKwildkraken said:

    Unless he gets a career ending or limiting injury.  

    Yep, he’d have to bet on himself. Not saying it’s the best thing to do, but it is one thing to do.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    19 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    If it wasn’t the agent or the Wild who else knew besides 97.  Is bill going full “find the leaker” mode while Rome burns?

    Good read on things, Pew-Pew!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    5 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

    Obviously you're looking for a fight. Or maybe just sympathy, not sure. I am, by every definition of the word, a realist. I see what the Wild are, and always have been, a mediocre team that never changes. Hockey is my favorite sport and I am a fan of the Wild. I want the team to get BETTER, not just live on the fringes for their entire existence. Leipold is obviously more interested in steady revenue then seeking a championship. Am I wrong about that? If so, prove it. Billy was hired to make the playoffs every year, he's done that. But is that ALL you want from your team? Don't you want something better? What is the definition of insanity again? Again, I am a realist, I see what's going on (and so does Kaprizov), and I want something better. Is that awful?

    I real Realist doesn’t insist they are a Realist.

     

    • Haha 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Trade him to whatever east/west coast team gives you the best offer. Hes not worthy of being the highest paid player in the league. I get it, he’s the next “star” up contract wise. But you’re only paying for 60 games a year. He’s constantly hurt. I could see if he was 6 foot 3 and 200 plus pounds and played both ways. But he’s not. I hope a couple of the teams on his wish list get into a bidding war and offer us more than we are expecting. I don’t want to see a Parise/Suter repeat where we throw too much money at players in their prime. Kirill has 3 or 4 prime years left. At best. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Honestly I think this has more to do with Billy's blind confidence more than Leopold's quotes. Just idle speculation, but I think Billy did his regular hot headed inflation to the owner and the owner spoke based on the information he was given. 

    Billy based his comments on Kap's end of year comments instead of talking to the guy and just assumed he was all but signed without actually talking to Kap. CL making comments like we will pay him more than anyone else also put all the leverage in Kap's hands and now he is using it. I've never liked Billy, his interviews make him look like an overconfident hot head with a ham fist. He has made some good moves for this team, I just don't think a manager that rules with an iron fist is even going to get the cup. None of the more successful GM's are like this. 

    Not panicking yet, he still may sign a reduced term. I really hope they don't go a dime over 16M per year. Anything more is crippling us from bringing in anyone else and we will not be anywhere near SC quality. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    Honestly I think this has more to do with Billy's blind confidence more than Leopold's quotes. Just idle speculation, but I think Billy did his regular hot headed inflation to the owner and the owner spoke based on the information he was given.

    If this speculation turns out to be true AND 97 doesn't re-sign then Guerin's seat is piping hot.

    1) embarass the owner

    2) fail to re-sign the org's best player ever

    3) straight to jail

        a) not even firing Brackett's fat ass can save bill in this scenario

     

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...