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  • Jon Merrill Has Quietly Had A Resurgence


    Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
    Luke Sims

    Most people consider Jonas Brodin the Minnesota Wild’s best defensive defenseman since they bought Ryan Suter out. Rookie Brock Faber has done an excellent job trying to wrestle that title away from Brodin. However, since the start of February, Minnesota’s best shutdown defender has been…

    Jon Merrill

    Before you angrily click off this site and call me a buffoon, hear me out on Johnny Hockey. Throughout his three years in Minnesota, Merrill has taken plenty of flak from fans. Most of that has been entirely valid criticism. Lately, however, the Jon Merrill haters may be wrong. 

    Since the start of February, Merrill has been one of Minnesota’s better defenders. While the Wild have Merrill in a sheltered role, his change in deployment has benefitted the team. 

    The veteran defender recently skated in his 600th game on March 20. That’s a meaningful feat for a guy who never played a full 82-game season. Merrill has only skated in 55 games with the Wild this season. 

    Merrill has spent his fair share of time in the press box as a healthy scratch. But all of the injuries Minnesota’s defensive core has sustained have forced Merrill to draw into the lineup. 

    Jared Spurgeon and Brodin’s injuries have forced the Wild to reevaluate how they deploy their defenders. While this includes Faber logging almost 30 minutes a night like an absolute mad lad, Minnesota also acquired Zach Bogosian, and then extended him, and claimed Declan Chisholm off of waivers from the Winnipeg Jets. 

    Merrill spent a lot of time with Dakota Mermis throughout the year. The pair haated over 300 minutes together this season and were ineffective. But Merrill has been skating with Chisholm recently, and the deployment of that pair has produced better results for Merrill. 

    Since February 1, Merrill has been first among Wild defenders in goals against per 60 (GA/60) at 0.67, a massive disparity from where he was before February 1. Merrill was near the bottom of the team in allowing goals per hour at 2.67. Now, Merrill ranks ahead of Brodin and Faber. 

    Even in xGA/60, which is expected GA/60, Merrill is tops on the team at just 1.69. The veteran is not just getting lucky or bailed out by elite goaltending; he’s actually playing well. 

    Merrill leads the team in GF%, which is goals-for-percentage, which means he’s out there for many more goals than he allows. His possession statistics are positive for once, as his Corsi For percentage is 52.5%. I never thought I’d see such numbers from No. 4 in green and red, but here we are. 

    Merrill did not just magically discover a new level in his game. He’s being put in more favorable situations, and he's playing very sheltered minutes, which boosts his game. 

    Merrill’s defensive zone start percentage is 5.1%, which is incredibly low. The Wild rarely have Merrill defending in his own end to start a shift. No other Wild defender starts in the defensive zone less than Merrill except Mermis. 

    Now, the Wild will have to survive by having Merrill do any of the heavy lifting on the defensive side of the puck and leaving that to the Brodins and Fabers of the world. 

    Merrill also has the second most OTF% starts which means on the fly or when the Wild are in transition from defense to offense. Having Merrill in that position where he does not have to try and stop a rush or clear the puck out of his own end has been good for his game. Don’t think, just flow. 

    On the offensive side of the puck, Merrill has only nine points through 55 games this year. The Oklahoma native has never been a creator with the puck, though. He’s a career 0.18 points per game guy. This season, though, he is tied for his career high in goals with four so far. Let’s see if he can set a new career high. 

    The Wild have Merrill under contract for one more year after this one, with a cap hit of $1.2 million. While fans are often irked by the fact that Merrill has another year, the deal is not terrible in and of itself. 

    The principle of signing depth defensemen to contracts before they need to is the real problem people should be focusing on. The Zach Bogosian deal is a case in point. For an aging defenseman, that’s just a deal you don’t need to make, but I digress. 

    Usually, fans' criticism of Merrill is warranted. But recently, the Wild put him in a position to succeed, and Merrill is proving the doubters wrong. Therefore, they are reaping the rewards of his play. 

    All stats and data via HockeyDB and Evolving Hockey, CapFriendly, and Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.

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    Maybe the Bogo deal wasn't one they "had" to make, but Addison was and remains a defensive liability.  LaPanta and Carter were talking about how he's a -34 with the Sharks...I mean there's a point that "he's on a bad team" only goes so far.  The Wild also got Chisholm later on.  It works itself out.

    As for Merrill, he's ok in a pinch, but you have to hope Hunt and others make progress this summer.  Merrill's not going to be on the team much longer.

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Maybe the Bogo deal wasn't one they "had" to make, but Addison was and remains a defensive liability.  LaPanta and Carter were talking about how he's a -34 with the Sharks...I mean there's a point that "he's on a bad team" only goes so far.  The Wild also got Chisholm later on.  It works itself out.

    As for Merrill, he's ok in a pinch, but you have to hope Hunt and others make progress this summer.  Merrill's not going to be on the team much longer.

    Hunt seems a long shot at this point.  If he had real promise to play next year, they wouldn't have picked up Chisolm.  The Wild have a huge problem with having NHL ready defenseman in Iowa when what was supposed to be a strength.  There is no one even close to becoming a full time NHL'er down there right now.  Just imagine where we'd be without Faber on this roster.

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    You said it yourself Luke!  Highly sheltered minutes and no D zone face offs make it look like he's doing something good.  Hynes has figured out how to make him somewhat serviceable.  Merrill is what he is, he's a 7th defenseman playing full time.  Most nights he should be in the press box.  

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    Merrill hasn't made the horrible mistakes lately.  He has played a conservative game and hasn't taken penalties.  He doesn't seem to play overly physical, probably because he doesn't want to take a penalty.

    He still is very slow and unskilled, lacks any sort of shot, and the best thing he can do is dump the puck in.  

    In comparison, Bogo pretty much has the same contract next year as Merrill.  Bogo is RHD.  Bogo is a much better physical defender with a good disrupting stick.  Bogo actually has a shot from the blue line.  Bogo is only one year older than Merrill.  

    Bogo's deal is the one that has value next year.  Merrill should be waived.

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    2 hours ago, Outskated said:

    Hunt seems a long shot at this point.  If he had real promise to play next year, they wouldn't have picked up Chisolm.  The Wild have a huge problem with having NHL ready defenseman in Iowa when what was supposed to be a strength.  There is no one even close to becoming a full time NHL'er down there right now.  Just imagine where we'd be without Faber on this roster.

    I have to disagree with this point. Chisholm was a good pickup off of waivers and makes the team better, but this is not an indictment on the kids. I think the hope was that they'd fair better in their first season in the A, but it is very apparent that they will need another full year. That doesn't mean they won't be full-time NHLers, that just means we have to wait a little longer.

    This should be no surprise as the Covid developmental 1.5 years kicks in. You don't know how the players will react, each one differently. No one can expect the kids to be a Brock Faber and seamlessly come in like he's been there for 10 years. Each player struggled. But, are they getting better? I really don't know. I've been disappointed with the coaching and play in Iowa this season, and I think they need to get bigger.

    As for Hunt, this is what must happen: Hunt's promotion must justify sending $1.2m down to the A. Hunt makes around $70k while he's there. So, he's got to be dramatically better than Merrill, and at this point, he is not. He's still got work to do, and he has had a better season in the A than last year. Chisholm just gives the team another young defender buying the kids time to develop. He may or may not still be around when we make our push, and if he can gain 10 lbs. of muscle or more, he may stay. 

    The Bogosian signing indicated that Spacek and Masters are behind where we thought they'd be (the RHS replacements). It would appear as if the light bulb hasn't clicked on yet. This was a huge jump for all of them, and they need a little more time, but it doesn't disqualify them from being good defenders. They're 20, not 23, this should have been expected.

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    They're 20, not 23, this should have been expected.

    You made my point, they are all a long ways off from being NHL defenders.  Whether its age, or skill, or both there is no one ready to jump in and play every day in the NHL.  Hunt needs another year or two and he needs to show big gains in performance on the ice to make it even as a bottom 6 player.  Now that the Wild have seemingly somewhat solved their Center problem, they need to look to a stud defender in the 1st round this year.  I think everyone had high hopes for Lambos, but he seems to lack the most important skill a defender needs....which is defending.  Hopefully he can turn it around.  But it's hard to get excited about anything with that dumpster fire down in Des Moines.  

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    18 minutes ago, Outskated said:

    You made my point, they are all a long ways off from being NHL defenders.  Whether its age, or skill, or both there is no one ready to jump in and play every day in the NHL. 

    Ok, I must have misunderstood you, I thought your point was there were no true NHLers in Iowa. 

    I think when the defenders got there, they did not realize how big and strong some of these players are. They were used to jr. players where their bodies were plenty big and strong to handle them. Here they need to come into camp having spent a lot of noticeable time in the gym this summer. Just that will go a long ways in helping them improve their performance.

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    The Wild need to ice a better 3rd pair next year. They got absolutely lit up by any decent team. It’s just too easy for other coaches/ players to exploit that weakness. That necessitates a change in personnel. Keep JM/DM for depth and find a way to bring in a couple more players. It’s encouraging to see JM putting up some nice numbers but my gut says it’s not sustainable. 

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    7 hours ago, Outskated said:

    Hunt seems a long shot at this point.  If he had real promise to play next year, they wouldn't have picked up Chisolm.  The Wild have a huge problem with having NHL ready defenseman in Iowa when what was supposed to be a strength.  There is no one even close to becoming a full time NHL'er down there right now.  Just imagine where we'd be without Faber on this roster.

    At some point they need to open their eyes and realize development has bee an ongoing issue for far to long. They need to figure it out pronto.

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    5 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    That doesn't mean they won't be full-time NHLers, that just means we have to wait a little longer.

    But at some point you have to realize they're likely not going to reach the potential we had when we drafted them. Many thought Lambos was a sure fire Suter replacement and it wasn't going to be long before he was with the Wild, O'Rourke was gonna be a top 4 tough guy. Neither look likely to meet those expectations. 

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    Boy, those Russians sure aren't intimidated with the puck on their stick are they. They can finagle their way out of some tough tough situations. Liking how Dino has looked so far and just missed his first goal.

     

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    Right idea, wrong time on that goalie pull.  Even Vegas fans at the arena were like, "why the fuck pull him now?"

    Maybe the Wild had no momentum at the end of the 3rd, but this pretty much ends the season.

    Foligno is done and having surgery, so maybe other players will follow suit.

     

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    2 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    But at some point you have to realize they're likely not going to reach the potential we had when we drafted them.

    Yes, but not at 20. Granted, O'Rourke is getting to that age, but he has to get to 210 to be successful with his game. This is where I believe the strength and conditioning staff have failed pretty much all the prospects. They simply should be larger and they're not. They fired everyone last season, and this season they're still not. All of the player development guys were grinders with beef. How does this escape them?

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Right idea, wrong time on that goalie pull.  Even Vegas fans at the arena were like, "why the fuck pull him now?"

    The ESPN announcer liked the idea. To me, it didn't seem to have the same element that it did against Nashville, like Vegas was prepared for it. After the 1st time, I thought the element of surprise was the main reason for its success.

    However, we needed to win that game in regulation. We didn't. I don't mind losing the loser point, that might be 2 draft positions gained taking it away.

    I think what makes matters worse was once again, an important game with a 3rd period lead gets away from us. I love Middleton as a player, but he took the bait and shouldn't have pinched. Vegas knew exactly what to do if he pinched and set it up well. I'm not real happy with the goal either, I thought Goose should have had it. But, he had shut them out up to that point on quite a few saves. 

    When the calendar turns to April, we've got quite a hard schedule again. We had a good March, but couldn't get it done when it counted. That is disappointing. Now, it'd be nice to see some of the players playing hurt exit and allow for some more kids to have a shot.

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    6 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    At some point they need to open their eyes and realize development has been an ongoing issue for far to long. They need to figure it out pronto.

    I assume that's why they changed coaching. They sent a lot of youth to Iowa, then lost a lot of the veterans they had to injury early on, or to the MN Wild the first half of the season. The Iowa Wild were quite bad through Ground Hog Day.

    They had a horrible January, losing 9 of 11 and losing by 3+ goals in 7 of them. They got smoked on Febuary 2nd by 7 goals... Since that time, they've been more mediocre than bad. They've been only slightly under .500 the last 22 games, allowing just 4 more goals against than goals for in that span.

    It's not amazing news, but they are no longer the worst team in the AHL. Well, at least not when Wallstedt is in goal. The backup goalies are terrible. In games without Wallstedt, they are 3-16-3. With "the Wall", they're 21-18-3.

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    This article is not a testament to Merrill but rather a testament to the coaching staff that they can scrape a few useful minutes out of a low talent, low IQ mouth breather like Jon Merrill.  Sheltered minutes is the most significant aspect of the article. 

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    On 3/30/2024 at 8:22 AM, Citizen Strife said:

    he's a -34 with the Sharks...I mean there's a point that "he's on a bad team" only goes so far.

    CoughConorBedardCough

    😁

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    Good article.  Yet I think the take away is that some players require shelter to be at their best.  Brodin, Spurge and Faber do not require shelter.  They are the shelter.  Middleton and Bogo can play pretty darned good hockey when paired with someone that can provide a little stability next to them.  Hunt, Merrill, Goligoski, Mermis and Chisholm are situational defenders.  We need 1 or 2 more defenders that can be productive in every situation.... ignore that and we will always be an injury or 2 away from being a bad team... and we are a bad team without Spurge and Brodin.

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    The Wild were ready this year to do well on paper. It was the same team swapping Faber for Dumba. It obviously doesn’t work out.

    Guerin has some work to do this off season. Rossi perhaps could get a top-4 defenseman being he is a center. Would that be worth it if MN expects Yurov to make the team and if they like Knudi or Heidt playing center. Could Heidt make the team out of camp if he takes the mnfaninnc prescription, 35-45lbs of muscle? Will the Wild pick an elite Swede at the draft with their 1st? Probably.

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    I get it, you can only write about Faber so much, but praising Merrill’s game is questionable at best. I was at a game in February against Anaheim, and when Merrill got the puck he looked afraid and not sure what to do. Mermis had the same appearance. The you look at Faber and it’s like watching a Deer cut through a thick Forrest. He is unbelievable to watch. I actually felt sorry for Merrill and Mermis, and hey look out if their element. 
     

    The Wild used them as much as the kid that plays right-field for twi  innings in little league baseball.

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