Jesper Wallstedt's Future Was Now -- Until It Wasn't

Hockey Wilderness is counting down the Minnesota Wild’s Top-10 Prospects, as voted by our staff. Today, we give you everything you need to know about our No. 1 prospect, Jesper Wallstedt.

The Minnesota Wild's goalie succession plan looked so clear. Marc-Andre Fleury's two-year deal with the Wild expired this summer, opening up a backup spot. Filip Gustavsson's two final years on his deal provided a perfect window for prospect Jesper Wallstedt to take starts from the Gus Bus, then take over by the starting gig end of the deal. 

Until it wasn't. Fleury and the Wild decided he'd get one more year in Minnesota before shipping out to Margaritaville. Um, OK? So does that mean Wallstedt would apprentice as the backup to the Future Hall-of-Famer? Maybe! But if the Wild wanted to trade Gustavsson, they picked the wrong offseason. Jacob Markstrom, Darcy Kuemper, Logan Thompson, and super-prospect Yaroslav Askarov landed in new homes this summer, leaving no parking spots in the garage for the Bus.

That clear line of succession has become the disorienting red lines that dance around the "PEPE SILVIA" board. This doesn't look like a plan, per se. Instead, this almost feels like a reactionary process where every bit of straying from the plan creates a new problem.

Oh, no, Gustavsson has a down year ----> Don't worry, we can sign Fleury for another season to stabilize things ----> Oh, no, wasn't Wallstedt supposed to start getting games? ----> No worries, we can trade Gustavsson ----> Oh, no, nobody's biting ----> Uhhhhhh, let's just roll with three goalies, maybe? 

That's not a generous read of the situation, and we're a generous site. Wallstedt is the team's No. 1 prospect, after all, as voted by our staff. Wallstedt is the Minnesota Wild's Goalie of the Future. There has to be a rhyme and reason to potentially carry three goalies. But what is it?

Thinking about it, the plan seems to be to have no set plan. Usually, that's a bad thing. However, Minnesota has provided maximum flexibility for themselves to play Wallstedt as many or as few games as the situation demands. And that is, arguably, the best scenario to be in if you're trying to break in your Goalie of the Future.

Do we believe in Wallstedt? Of course. He doesn't land at No. 1 on our list if we don't. But do we believe in him for this season, specifically? That's a trickier question. There were things about the future Great Wall of St. Paul's game that shone last season. We'll leave that to Sean Shapiro, a writer and scout for EP Rinkside, to lay that out:

"He's always calm and composed in the net, and his control of the net and his depth -- even when dealing with heavy traffic -- is remarkably good for any goalie, not just a prospect learning the ropes...in the AHL.

"It's hard to find an example of him getting beaten on a clean shot."

He's also strong statistically. Wallstedt was only tied for 27th in the AHL among goalies with more than 10 games played last year, but he was an absolute workhorse. He was tied for fourth in the AHL with 45 games. Of the three players who logged more games, only Matt Villalta had a higher save percentage (.911 in 51 games to Wallstedt's .910).

Statistically, Wallstedt also went toe-to-toe with some of the top young goalies in the AHL. Here's how he stacks up alongside other top Under-24 goalies:

Devon Levi, BUF: 26 GP, .927 Sv%
Dustin Wolf, CGY: 36 GP, .922 Sv%
Joel Blomqvist, PIT: 45 GP, .920 Sv%
Sebastian Cossa, DET: 44 GP, .913 Sv%
Yaroslav Askarov, NSH (now SJ): 44 GP, .911 Sv%
JESPER WALLSTEDT, MIN: 45 GP, .910 Sv%
Spencer Knight, FLA: 45 GP, .905 Sv%

That looks underwhelming, but the Iowa Wild's defense, um, let their youth and inexperience show, to put it kindly. You'll notice that Daemon Hunt and Carson Lambos were the only representatives on the Iowa defense on our list, and they came in near the bottom. It didn't translate into Wallstedt facing a ton of shots, per se. However, it translated into breakdowns that often put him in tough spots.

Yet, Wallstedt was able to rise above it... at least for spurts. Wallstedt took a Mitch Hedbergian philosophy to goaltending in 2022-23. He started the season strong and ended it strong, and repeated that pattern last season.

You can divide his season into three almost equal chunks.

Games 1 through 16: .935 Sv%
Games 17 through 32: .871 Sv%
Games 33 through 45: .925 Sv%

Now we're looking at two years in a row where Wallstedt has had a large slump in the middle of his season. He also seems especially prone to an awful start. Last season, he had four games where he surrendered six goals or more. Sure, he's a young goalie, but look at Askarov. He had zero games where he surrendered six or more, with a similar workload and results. Sebastian Cossa only had one. 

According to Shapiro, that's a bit of a red flag, especially when looking at his weaknesses. "Talking to those in the goalie universe," he wrote, "the questions about Wallstedt center on his quickness and work ethic, which seem to be connected."

Now, we finally have the reason why it actually makes sense to carry three goalies, at least for stretches of the season.

If you're the Wild and Wallstedt, you want to see some progression toward the NHL. Is it necessary for Wallsted to spend three full seasons in Des Moines? Probably not. However, Bill Guerin's philosophy of not simply giving someone a spot comes in handy here. Unlike someone like Marco Rossi, who has a single-minded work ethic, Wallstedt might need that carrot in front of him this summer.

It also explains why Minnesota needs Fleury and Gustavsson in the fold. Fleury is the ideal mentor for Wallstedt. He not only came into the NHL with incredible expectations. He started for the Pittsburgh Penguins at age-18, and they expected him to be their savior before they got Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in back-to-back drafts. However, Wallstedt has a top-tier work ethic. He famously keeps himself in fantastic shape, which is how you still stick in the NHL until you're almost 40.

Fleury is simply too valuable a resource for Wallstedt to let out the door. However, for the rookie to take proper advantage, he must study under him in the NHL, at least for long stretches.

But Gustavsson is also necessary for this puzzle. If Minnesota traded Gustavsson, Wallstedt would be one Fleury injury away from having to start every game for the Wild. He's pulled out of big slumps in Iowa, but what happens when a six-week slump happens with all eyes on him? Can he work his way through that? For a soon-to-be 22-year-old, it's better not to have to find out. 

The Wild may be making this plan as they go along. Still, they have the tools to play Wallstedt 45 games or 15, with minimal risk and maximum flexibility. Maybe the time is now for our No. 1 prospect, and maybe that comes in mid-season, and perhaps it comes next season. All that will matter is that whenever Wallstedt's moment arrives, Minnesota can make it the right time.