By Tony Abbott -
The Minnesota Wild are finally getting flexibility this offseason. Most of this will come from the bulk of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter's buyout charges disappearing, which helps Minnesota to get to nearly $22 million in cap space, according to the NHL's estimates.
That number sounds like a lot, and relative to the cap room the Wild have had the last four years, it's a windfall. It's also a number that might disappear faster than we'd think. After taking care of Marco Rossi's RFA status, acquiring a top-six player, potentially retaining other RFAs like Declan Chisholm, and maybe dipping into the goalie market after Marc-André Fleury's retirement... their flexibility might not last long.
So, it makes sense that Wild fans would like to see the team trim more salary. More flexibility can't be a bad thing, right? And a fairly obvious target for the would-be The Bobs in the fanbase to downsize is Jared Spurgeon.
It's not a hard argument to make. Spurgeon is 35 years old, which is generally not an age you want to be paying $7.575 million to a player. The Wild have his successors in place, with Brock Faber (22) already established as a top-pairing defenseman and David Jiricek (21) still considered a great defensive prospect.
Spurgeon has also missed 15 or more games in three of his last four seasons, including playing just 16 games in 2023-24. And, fair or not, Spurgeon does have the distinction of being the constant in a 13-year stretch where Minnesota has only advanced past the first round once.
You can see all that listed out, and understand why someone might think Spurgeon is a viable trade candidate. But you can also watch Spurgeon playing for the Wild this year, and if you are, it's hard to argue that Minnesota is better off without him.
The Wild got blown out on Saturday afternoon 5-2, but Spurgeon showed the kind of plays he's still capable of making at 35. In the final seconds of the period, Nico Hischier (who scored his 31st, 32nd, and 33rd goals of the season), Jesper Bratt (20 goals), and Timo Meier (22 goals) caught Minnesota for a 3-on-1. Jared Spurgeon was the only thing standing between three top-line forwards and certain paydirt.
And then...
You can dish out the blame to Meier for actually deflecting the shot harmlessly away, but Spurgeon's stickwork calmly guided Meier into that spot, creating maximum chaos with zero help. It was vintage Spurgeon: relying on his feet, poise, and experience to snuff out threats.
It'd be one thing if this were but one flash of his former glory, but Spurgeon is every bit as ageless as he looks. Frankly, we're past the point where someone needs to investigate his attic for a portrait of a graying Spurgeon getting turnstiled by some young forward. The man spits in the face of aging curves.
Spurgeon's workload may be decreasing. His 20 minutes, 31 seconds per game is the first time he's averaged fewer than 21 minutes a night since his rookie season. However, his play during that time has hardly missed a beat. Look at the bottom graph to see his xStandings Points Above Replacement (an all-in-one metric from Evolving-Hockey) over time:
You practically have to take out a straight edge to confirm that his 2024-25 season is a half-step below the incredibly consistent level of his prime. It's still enough for him to have entered Saturday with 3.3 xSPAR, which ties him with Jake Sanderson and others for 25th in the NHL. As for those three points in the standings, those absolutely matter, given that Minnesota is currently tied with the St. Louis Blues for the last Wild Card spot and just six points ahead of the playoff bubble.
Why let those points go to another team?
Given Spurgeon's age, it's hard to see him playing at that high level for much longer, but there are always outliers. It's fair to say Spurgeon has been one of those outliers and is as good a bet as anyone to continue to do so.
Here are the top 10 players in total xSPAR between ages 30-to-34 seasons during the Analytics Era:
- Zdeno Chara, 28.1
- Lubomir Visnovsky, 28.0
- Mark Giordano, 27.9
- Shea Weber, 25.0
- Brent Burns, 24.3
- Dan Boyle, 24.0
- Brian Campbell, 23.8
- Roman Josi, 22.8
- Kris Letang, 22.1
- JARED SPURGEON, 21.1
Josi is the only player in Spurgeon's age range, so we have data on the next two seasons for each player. That should give us a pretty good look at possibilities for Spurgeon in the final two seasons of his deal with the Wild. With that in mind, here are their xSPAR totals for their age 36 and 37 seasons, followed by their rank among all defensemen in that range:
Chara, 9.3 (first)
Campbell, 8.2 (fourth)
Boyle, 7.0 (seventh)
Letang, 5.7 (10th)
Giordano, 4.8 (11th)
Burns, 3.3 (T-14th)
Visnovsky, 3.2 (T-16th)
Weber, 1.5 (T-32nd)
Of course, there are no guarantees, but besides Weber (limited to 48 games due to injury), every defenseman joining Spurgeon was more than usable, with three (and arguably five) elite players in that group.
You can't ignore the absurd longevity some of these players had, either. Brent Burns is 39 and only now seeing Father Time catch up with him a bit. Giordano had a similar path in his late-30s. Boyle retired after his age-39 season and was an elite puck-moving defenseman until the end. And, of course, Chara was a first-pairing caliber defenseman until age-41 and still had three more seasons to give the Boston Bruins.
As long as Spurgeon's body holds up, it's hard to see an imminent decline. He's the definition of a dude with Old Man Skills. Spurgeon's a great skater, but not in a straight-line speed sense. He relies on craftiness and positioning to manipulate attacking forwards.
Spurgeon's always been a puck-mover, but his offensive toolkit is more about making smart plays than dancing through traffic and dazzling with his puck skills. The hands and feet may go eventually -- that moment comes for all players -- but someone who relies on their brain to excel is a better bet to age gracefully.
Having an extra $7.575 million to play with this summer might be tempting for Minnesota, but investing that money in Spurgeon, who's bankable for three points in the standings, is a strong use of that cap space. Even if Jiricek is ready next year, we've seen the insane workload Faber has had to take on, and how it's grinded him down in each of the last two seasons. Keeping both Spurgeon and Jiricek in-house to hedge against Faber having to take on 25-plus minutes a night feels like a wise plan.
Someday, we'll wake up and witness a version of Spurgeon that can no longer help the Wild. It's inevitable. However, that moment isn't here and will not likely arrive soon. Spurgeon still has much more to give, and it'd be a shame to see him helping another team make the playoffs next season.
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