By Tony Abbott -
It's no secret that the Minnesota Wild needs to fix their secondary scoring. It's also no secret that despite having more cap space to play with than last year, nearly $15 million in dead cap hit limits their options. With a short-term deal at a wing position looking like the most likely route, potential veteran free agents like Tyler Johnson, Mike Hoffman, David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Wennberg, and Jason Zucker fit the bill.
These moves might put a floor on Minnesota's second-line wing play, but the problem is they may not carry as much upside as you'd like. Each player will be in their 30s, and even higher-scoring options like Tarasenko are defensively flawed and in decline.
Maybe someone from that group is still worth bringing in, but the Wild should also look for an upside play. They may be able to do so with Jakub Vrána, 28, a free agent who needs a comeback. Vrána would not only offer Minnesota a potential high-end scoring option, but it would be an opportunity to make the most of their precious little cap space.
First, you can't talk about Vrána without explaining why he's available in the first place. Vrána was a bright young scorer who started his career with the Washington Capitals, winning a Stanley Cup with them in 2017-18 and scoring a career-high 27 goals and 52 points in 2019-20. Then, in the 2020-21 season, the Capitals sent him to the Detroit Red Wings in the Anthony Mantha trade, and things started going poorly for Vrána.
Injuries struck Vrana in the 2021-22 season, limiting him to 26 games, but the bigger struggles appear to have happened off the ice, as Vrana entered the NHL Player Assistance Program during the 2022-23 season. Since then, the Red Wings waived him and later traded him to the St. Louis Blues. St. Louis waived him in December 2023 before bringing him back to the NHL. In 41 games with the Blues, he only scored 12 goals and 20 points.
Vrána recently commented on his substance abuse issues for the first time in an interview with Zimakpodcast in Czechia. "When you think you have everything under control, you don't," Vrána said of addiction. Fortunately, Vrána is in a place where he can put these struggles behind him. "Seemingly unsolvable problems can be successfully solved."
After the experience of recovery, Vrána emphatically states, "I'm stronger now."
If Vrána is ready to make a successful comeback to the NHL, his skill set fits precisely what the Wild need. He's a volume shooter who scores goals at a higher rate than almost anyone in the NHL. 478 forwards have played 2,000 or more 5-on-5 minutes since Vrána entered the league in 2016-17. Vrana fires off 12.15 unblocked shot attempts per hour, just ahead of Kevin Fiala for 49th in the NHL.
Even better, those shots directly translate into goals. Here are the forwards who have scored at the highest rate at 5-on-5 since Vrána entered the league:
1. Auston Matthews, 1.64 Goals/60
2. David Pastrnak, 1.30 Goals/60
3. Carter Verhaeghe, 1.24 Goals/60
4. Jakub Vrána, 1.21 Goals/60
5. Wyatt Johnston, 1.20 Goals/60
6. Alex Ovechkin, 1.18 Goals/60
7. Daniel Sprong, 1.17 Goals/60
8. Jeff Skinner, 1.16 Goals/60
T-9. Jordan Kyrou, 1.15 Goals/60
T-9. Kirill Kaprizov, 1.15 Goals/60
Is it good to be in the same breath as Matthews, Pastrnak, Ovechkin, and Kaprizov? You can decide.
For a team that wants to get faster, Vrána is an ideal candidate to put on the second line and let him run wild on opponents. A healthy, productive Vrána would offer a sharp-shooting counterpart to Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello to feed, and Vrána's shots should be able to generate more rebounds for Rossi to clean up in the crease. It'd be a much different dynamic than we saw from Marcus Johansson in that spot, who only got 7.97 unblocked shot attempts per hour at 5-on-5 last season, which ranked 11th on the team.
Vrána's career was unfortunately derailed to the point where he likely needs to take a prove-it deal. However, from Minnesota's perspective, it's hard to find the combination of high reward and low risk that Vrána presents. Evolving-Hockey's contract projections predict he'll sign a one-year deal for $796K. Even if that number gets bumped up close to the $1-to-$1.5 million range, it feels like an easy flier to take on a player as skilled as Vrána.
Minnesota can probably afford to sign Vrána while also bringing in a Perron-type player. If Vrána can't find his game, Perron is a safety net. If Vrána works out on the second line, Perron remains an excellent piece on a third line and second power-play unit.
The only risk is that the move doesn't work out. But if that's the case, the Wild have internal and external options to safeguard themselves. There is practically no risk, which makes pursuing Vrána a no-brainer for a team like Minnesota.
All data from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise stated.
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