Jake Middleton Has Been Minnesota's Unsung Hero This Season

Jake Middleton is easy to love. His 2024-25 season is making it even easier. 

That offensive output comes despite fatigue from more ice time and coming off of knee surgery. Middleton’s five-on-five ice share is in the 67th percentile or right on the borderline of first- and second-pair minutes. 

There’s a lot more to it than the scoring, though. 

Middleton is thriving in a new role under John Hynes. Take a look at his most common five-on-five teammates this season. Notice that most of Middleton’s minutes come with Minnesota’s top scoring line rather than the checking line:

Courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com

That could have been a challenging role for Middleton. His physical identity is defense-first, but with these teammates, he’s forced to facilitate the breakout or risk wasting Kaprizov’s shifts stuck in his own zone. He must also be an effective safety valve at the offensive blue line. If he drops a pass or misses one of the Wild’s superstars on a pass of his own, he would drag down his teammates’ production. 

That’s not an option for a team with few secondary scoring threats. Notice Middleton’s awareness and confidence to turn defense to offense in one touch on Zuccarello’s goal against Seattle. 

Instead of becoming an offensive black hole, Middleton has thrived. His ability to take back possession in his defensive zone or keep opponents out of his zone entirely has led to a play-driving masterclass when Minnesota’s best finishers are on the ice. 

Of 192 qualifying defensemen (six defensemen per 32 NHL teams), Middleton ranks 55th in five-on-five xG share per MoneyPuck.com. That statistic measures the shot quality of Middleton’s team versus his opponent. 55th out of 192 qualifiers implies high-end second-pair value. 

Of course, this new role involves some sheltering. Playing alongside Faber and the top line gives Middleton plenty of open passes on the breakout and an excellent defensive partner to back him up. He also starts a large share of his shifts in the offensive zone rather than the defensive zone. 

On the other hand, it’s extremely valuable that Middleton hasn’t slowed down that fearsome foursome and adds a defensive safety net on top of it. The top line can go to work and make risky high-danger passes, and Faber is free to attack low in the offensive zone with Middleton backing him up. 

Faber’s goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning is an excellent example of Middleton’s facilitation. 

Many defensive defensemen can’t make this play so quickly. It’s a very fast pass that Middleton catches smoothly, then immediately moves into space. 

Middleton ranks 69th among NHL defensemen in xGoals Against per 60 minutes, which is exceptionally good when his teammates are hunting for goals. Consider that Hynes has often tasked him with defending leads during Minnesota’s hot start, and that number is even more valuable. 

As much as he’s been sheltered by his teammates and offensive zone starts, Middleton has performed admirably in his new role. 

It’s nice that Middleton has demonstrated the flexibility to play higher in the lineup, but here’s the kicker: He’s done all this while facing his opponents’ best players. Dom Luszczyszyn published research last year in The Athletic that indicates that quality of opposition has a far greater impact on individual performance than quality of teammates. 

Examine Middleton’s most common opponents during home games per NaturalStatTrick.com. In these situations, Minnesota has the advantage of last change. If Middleton plays heavy minutes against an opponent at home, there’s a good chance Hynes wants that matchup. 

There’s a lot going on here, so focus on those opponents that Middleton played at least 8 minutes against (the top 7% of his most common matchups). Among that group are Vancouver Canucks stars Elias Petersson and Brock Boeser. Expand that to 7 or more minutes (13.5% most common matchups), and the list includes Toronto’s top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies and Seattle’s top scoring threat Matty Beniers. 

When Hynes wants to attack another team’s best players with his best, he can count on Middleton and Faber to keep the other team’s superstars out of Minnesota’s zone. Petersson had one point at five-on-five. Beniers, Matthews, and Marner had none. 

Middleton sees even more nasty matchups on the road, possibly because teams want to attack Minnesota’s top line. That could be because opposing coaches want to keep their best forwards away from the Foligno-Trenin line or the fourth line, which has been a revolving door of defense-first players. 

Whatever the reason, Middleton’s most common opponents on the road are even more impressive than at home. 

Middleton has matched up heavily with the Pittsburgh Penguins’ aging skill group of Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby -- all of whom are still elite on their best days. Buffalo’s stable offensive defensemen are also common, and Middleton saw more of San Jose’s standout rookie Macklin Celebrini than any of their other players. 

Adjusting the sample only to include opponents that Middleton has faced two or more times makes the picture even clearer. Known goal-scorer Kevin Fiala and Columbus’s best player Zach Werenski make that list, as well as a bevy of scorers from Tampa: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman. 

Of the 53 opponents Middleton has faced for at least 7 minutes, 21 have made this list of notable threats. In other words, Middleton spends most of his minutes with two of the other team’s best players making up their five on-ice threats. He’s largely shut them down in those minutes and turned the puck north for his superstar teammates. 

Not only has he driven play, but he’s contributing goals of his own this year. 

That’s how Hynes prefers to deploy his best defensemen. They have to take on tough matchups at home and on the road. Still, they’re rewarded by playing with Minnesota’s superstars rather than being relegated to shutdown duty alongside Foligno and Trenin. 

That was exceedingly clear in Luszczyszyn’s analysis last year: 

Perhaps Hynes should hunt more favorable matchups for Kaprizov and Boldy, but he’d likely need to play them with the third pair more often so that Minnesota’s best defensemen could cover the other team’s best players. Instead, he puts his best players out against the opponent’s best. 

That makes intuitive sense. Your best players should be able to take on the toughest assignments. And, if his best players can’t beat the other team, then maybe the Wild don’t have the right players to win anyways. 

Unfortunately, the rest of Minnesota’s defense corps is crumbling around Middleton just as he returns from his hand injury. Without Faber and Spurgeon to maximize Middleton’s unique combination of hands and defense, and Kirill Kaprizov still sidelined, the Wild will likely push Middleton back into a defensive role, highlighting his physicality. 

With any luck, though, the Wild should return to better help before the playoffs. If given the opportunity, Middleton’s physical brand of two-way hockey could be uniquely suited for a playoff atmosphere.