It's Fine For the Wild To Play Jon Merrill Over Zeev Buium

Coming into the Minnesota Wild's series against the Vegas Golden Knights, Zeev Buium was a great choice to slot into the Wild defense. He'd never played a minute of NHL hockey, but the former Denver Pioneer offered the team badly-needed upside to keep up with Vegas' talent. John Hynes clearly agreed, as Buium started the series' first four games.

However, the Wild have left Buium out of the lineup for Game 5, with veteran Jon Merrill drawing in. The timing is a bit unfortunate because it can read like a reaction to Buium's high-sticking double-minor on Mark Stone, which arguably cost Minnesota Game 4. Still, other than that, Buium's showing in Game 4 felt like his best performance of the series, and he seemed to be gaining confidence. So why eschew his upside and sit him now?

Maybe you're scratching your head over the decision, but putting in Merrill makes sense for tonight's game. Here's why.

It's pretty rare for a 33-year-old third-pairing defenseman to be a popular player, especially when they have just six points in 70 games. It's not Merrill's fault. He's been in Minnesota for four years and has been a reliable defensive option for most of that time. However, fans get bored with low-upside veterans. They want to see the shiny new thing. Prospect heads are waiting for the likes of David Jiricek, Carson Lambos, and now Buium, to take those spots.

Sometimes, that urge is more than justified. Coaches love to lean on veteran options, even when they're not strictly helping the team win. But Merrill isn't going in the lineup just for his perceived reliability. He's been a solid defenseman all season.

He's a limited player, but limited doesn't always equal bad. It just means there are things they can and can't do. You don't want Merrill carrying the puck and leading the rush regularly. There's a simple solution for that problem: Don't ask him to do that. The Wild don't, and instead ask Merrill to play to his strengths, which is keeping opponents away from the net.

Among Wild defensemen, Merrill was fourth (behind Declan Chisholm, Jonas Brodin, and Jared Spurgeon) in Goals Above Replacement's measurement of even-strength defense. Among the 214 defensemen who've logged 500-plus 5-on-5 minutes this season, Merrill ranks 24th in expected goals allowed per hour (2.24). He can (and does) thrive in Minnesota's structure, keeping attackers to the outside. 

There are two things that (rightfully) gave Merrill the inside track with the series going back to Vegas. In Games 1 and 2, Buium was something of an unknown quantity to Bruce Cassidy and the Golden Knights. As such, Cassidy didn't seem to have a plan of attack against Buium for those first two games, and Hynes capitalized on that by ensuring that all but two of his shifts started on the fly.

Now, there are 54 minutes of tape on Buium, and Cassidy has a feel for Hynes' tendencies. With the ability to set matchups at home, Cassidy can find ways to try to punish the Wild for putting a rookie on the ice. Merrill offers much more of a safety net against unfavorable matchups, without the need for Hynes to be as careful in rotating his defensive pairs.

The second thing is the flow of the series. There were indeed more penalties called in Minnesota than there were in Vegas, but even so, the Wild have drawn just two power plays per game. If Minnesota was going on the power play four or five times per evening, maybe it's a big advantage to have Buium in the lineup.

Still, if they can only count on four minutes of time with the man advantage, how big is the drop-off from Buium to Spurgeon? That's also got to be part of the calculation.

None of this is a critique of Buium. He's a 19-year-old holding his own in a situation that would be impossible for 99% of defensemen. It's just that different times in the series will call for different things. If the Wild were at home and able to set their matchups the way they wanted, Buium might easily stick in the lineup. If the team anticipates a bump in power plays, he might return for Game 6.

But the needs are different for tonight's game, which is a must-win in a hostile environment against a Vegas team with new life. Merrill is probably less exploitable for Cassidy. Hynes is likelier to count on the veteran in all situations, leaving more time for Jonas Brodin and Jake Middleton to take a breather. It's not as fun, for sure, but there's a very reasonable case that Merrill gives the Wild the best chance to win Game 5.