By Tony Abbott -
You may have heard about this: The Buffalo Sabres are bad. Again.
You also may be aware: The Minnesota Wild need scoring. Again.
And perhaps you've known: The Wild used to have this fella in Buffalo named Alex Tuch.
Are we all caught up? Great. Because you're going to hear a lot about Tuch in the coming months, and frankly, you should. The 6-foot-4, 219-pound forward hasn't put up insane numbers throughout his career -- his career-highs are 36 goals (twice, his only 30-goal seasons) and 79 points (2022-23). But the Boston College product (Hey! That's where Bill Guerin went to school!) fits precisely what the Wild need.
Tuch's size is the obvious draw, as it was when Minnesota drafted him in 2014, but his contributions go far past being a big body. It's how he uses it. Despite a career-high 113 hits last season, he's not a punishing monster like Marcus Foligno. He's not going to throw the body around. Still, his frame absolutely helps him stay on the puck, win board battles, and push play into the offensive zone.
Over the past five seasons, Tuch ranks 36th among NHL forwards in driving Even Strength Offense, with an Evolving-Hockey rating of 39.3 in goals above average during that time. That's more than any member of the Wild except Kirill Kaprizov (49.2 EVO GAR; 15th). His offensive impact at even-strength is comparable to the likes of Elias Pettersson (40.5 EVO GAR), Brady Tkachuk (40.6), and Tage Thompson (41.2), all three being names Wild fans want Guerin to circle like vultures.
It's easy to imagine what Tuch can offer to a Wild team that doesn't have much of what he provides. Boldy is developing into a skilled power forward, but they don't have much in the way of big, imposing forwards. They don't have many right-shot options for their power play -- Ryan Hartman is the only one in Minnesota's top-nine right now. And as for what holes Tuch could fill in the lineup? Use your imagination.
One can easily envision him opposite Kirill Kaprizov on a top line, banging down low and cleaning up rebounds. If Minnesota wants to keep its Kaprizov/Matt Boldy connection together, though, no sweat. How does a forechecking line featuring Joel Eriksson Ek and Tuch sound to opponents? How many defensemen are going to love to see that duo bear down on them in their own zone?
You could even see Tuch contributing on the penalty kill -- he led the NHL with six shorthanded goals last season, after all. All of that sounds great. Sign me up.
Except that, there's always gonna be a catch.
The catch isn't coming this year. Or at least, not fully. Whatever team trades for Tuch is going to have to give a boatful of assets. Tuch's not just great at hockey, he's also insanely affordable. Tuch is in the last year of a contract that pays him $4.75 million per season. The Wild have $4.1 million in cap space right now. They could trade for him today and barely have to move any money around to get it done. And for cap-strapped contenders like the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers, and Colorado Avalanche, that's going to cost a premium.
We're probably talking about something similar to what Colorado paid for Brock Nelson at the last trade deadline: A first-round pick, a top prospect, and a little bit more. That could very easily mean saying goodbye to Danila Yurov or Liam Öhgren, and their cost-controlled years.
Maybe that's worth the injection of "win-now" into the Wild's engine... but that was also the rationale for trading Tuch to preserve Minnesota's roster in 2017.
Few teams are going to cough up that kind of prospect capital without feeling good about the chances of keeping their new player around. The Wild likely wouldn't be an exception with Tuch. Guerin isn't going to make that splash without extending the player, and while Tuch's been more than worth his freight during his career, his upcoming contract is going to push that to the limit.
Remember that sticker shock you got with Kaprizov's contract? You're going to get it again with Tuch. Evolving-Hockey projected a Tuch extension to come in at eight years with a $9.99 million AAV last summer -- though at that point, I'd doubt the player's camp would want to Tuch and roll under the $10 million mark. Minnesota would almost definitely have its second player in the eight-digit AAV club.
That's a lot of money, and that's even accounting for the cap rising. In terms of "flat cap dollars" -- what you're used to seeing players get, $10 million in 2026-27 is the equivalent of an $8.4 million salary last season. Forget making more than Nikita Kucherov ($9.5 million), Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5 million), and Brayden Point ($9.5 million) -- is Tuch more valuable than his inflation-adjusted comparables -- Wyatt Johnston or Roope Hintz or "Featuring" Rob Thomas?
And that's just in the short term. Year 1 of Tuch's deal will come at age-30, and his contract will likely last until he's 36 or 37. Now, players age differently at all body types, including power forwards. Alex Ovechkin is virtually indestructible. Guerin was effective into his late 30s. Meanwhile, Corey Perry has spent much of the last decade barely hanging on to an NHL spot with contending teams, and there's a chance injuries can make a power forward go the way of Dany Heatley or Milan Lucic.
We can't know how Tuch will go. Still, we know that if it goes bad, it can go bad quickly. If it does, Minnesota's not going to want to be on the hook for that $10 million price.
Still, that's going to be a risk Guerin takes with virtually any player he'll want to take a swing on. Unless the next Matt Tkachuk -- an All-Star at the very beginning of their prime -- comes on the trade market, the Wild's next big splash is going to be a veteran who is A) expensive and B) going to fight against the aging curve. While history suggests Tuch's expiration date will come sometime during his next contract, it's tough to say he can't help on a Wild team that sees its window as these next three to four seasons.
If that's the case, Tuch might be able to be a trade deadline treat, even if the trick is lying in wait at some point during the 2030s.
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