Is the Zach Bogosian Bubble Bursting?

When the Minnesota Wild acquired Zach Bogosian early last season, it felt like they'd cast a player with the right look into the wrong role. If you were a director looking for an actor to fill the part of "Big Shutdown Defenseman" and Bogosian walked in, you'd hire him on the spot.

Sure, his burly 6-foot-3 frame is a big part of the look, but also: That beard. The Bogo Beard is visual shorthand for "Veteran Hockey Guy." 

The thing is, "Big Shutdown Defenseman" was never really what you got from Bogosian. At his best, he's a smooth-skating defenseman who can be an asset in the offensive zone. As for his defense? Avert your eyes. Even when cherry-picking the best three-year stretch of his career, his defensive game was in the bottom-third of the NHL.

So how would that work in Minnesota, given that the Wild targeted him to fill that Big Shutdown Defenseman role?

Pretty well, it turned out. Shockingly well. Evolving-Hockey's Goals Above Replacement metric rated Bogosian's defense as the 14th-best among all defensemen last season. He went from a replacement-level player to one worth 3.5 Standings Points Above Replacement last season -- as much as Jonas Brodin and slightly more than Brock Faber (3.4 SPAR).

The Wild extended him for two years at a $1.25 million AAV, which if Bogosian kept playing his role that well, would be an incredible bargain.

Given Bogosian's history, that's a big caveat. What happens if the bubble bursts, and he reverts to being the version of Bogosian that stood out as a rare weak point on a Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning squad?

Unfortunately, we might find out early in the 2024-25 season. Tuesday night's game represented Bogosian's career better than we saw last year. He came through offensively, potting a goal to open the scoring, but he struggled in his own end.

On Warren Foegele's goal to tie the game at 1-1, Bogosian failed to break up the zone entry. Then he lost Foegele behind him, which left him just starting to react when Foegele got a rebound with a wide-open net.

It was a leaky defensive showing for Bogosian, and he's racking up quite a few of those early. Evolving-Hockey tagged Bogosian with giving up 1.31 expected goals at 5-on-5 on Tuesday, the fourth time in 12 games where he surrendered over 1.00 xG in a game. Last year with the Wild, he only had five outings in 61 tries.

These defensive clunkers are a big reason Bogosian is, once again, looking like one of the worst defensemen in the league. Of the 187 defensemen who have played 100-plus 5-on-5 minutes, Bogosian's 3.18 expected goals against per hour ranks 162nd in the NHL. And while we can still say, "It's early..." it's also not that early. We're already working with about 20% of Bogosian's sample with Minnesota last season. 

It hasn't mattered who he's played with, either. In 93 minutes on the second pair with defensive stalwart Brodin, Bogosian conceded 3.09 xG per hour. During his 53 minutes with Jon Merrill, the pair have given up xG at a rate of 3.31 per hour. Whenever Bogosian has hit the ice, opponents rack up the scoring chances.

That's bad. Worse yet, Bogosian is doing this on an otherwise extremely structured Wild team. As a whole, Minnesota only concedes 1.93 expected goals per hour. Without Bogosian, that number drops to 1.39 per hour. Incredibly, the Wild have given up more expected goals in the 30.6% of the 5-on-5 time where Bogosian was on the ice (9.69 xGA) than in the nearly 70% of the time where he sits.

That hasn't quite caught up to the Wild yet -- Bogosian is still above water at 5-on-5 with an 8-to-7 edge in actual goals. But unless the defenseman can recapture last season's form, the day where he cements himself as a liability in Minnesota is coming very soon.

All data via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.