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By Robert Brent -
The Minnesota Wild recently received excellent news when Russian reporters indicated Danila Yurov intended to sign with the team after the KHL campaign.
Yurov is one of the team’s top prospects and could be a potential core piece. Hype for Yurov reached a fever pitch last year when he broke the KHL record for points by a 20-year-old. The young forward topped off his excellent individual season with postseason success, playing a crucial role in Metallurg Magnitogorsk’s Gagarin Cup win.
Then, in the offseason, Yurov received optimistic projections from several prospect pundits. Scott Wheeler ranked him as the 30th-best drafted prospect in the NHL. That tier-four ranking (a tier classed as players expected to develop into the top half of the lineup players but not guaranteed all-stars) puts him alongside names like Rutger McGroarty, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Lane Hutson. With a historic season in the rearview mirror, it seemed like Yurov was ready to develop even further.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t gone exactly to plan. Yurov missed the first few games of the season with an injury, which seems to have contributed to a less explosive season offensively. Yurov finished last season with 49 points in 62 games but has only produced 22 points in 40 games this year. That’s a reduction from .79 points per game to .55 ppg.
Part of his decline in scoring results from a decrease in shooting percentage. Last year, Yurov scored 13.1% of his shots, while this year, he’s only netting a goal on 8.3% of his shots. That could be bad luck or his shoulder injury still nagging him.
Those numbers are still good, especially for a player of his age, but it’s difficult not to be a little disappointed, given the expectations coming into this year. Yurov’s injury could be a contributing factor, but something else may hold the prospect back. The KHL doesn’t have a strong history with players primed to leave for North America.
While Yurov’s intent to sign with the Wild has only been formally reported, his desire to play in North America has always been clear. He stated those intentions in a Q&A with The Athletic last offseason.
“It’s my childhood dream to play in the NHL!” Yurov said, “For me, the most important thing is to come to the NHL when I feel I’m ready and be able to make an impact.”
Yurov’s intention to make the jump to North America could impact his standing in the KHL; it seems like it already has in some ways. Yurov plays a bit of center but is a winger by trade. He’s shown success in the center of the ice, but Magnitogorsk is using him as a pivot far more often this year. Yurov took a total of 441 faceoffs in 62 games last season. He’s already nearly equaled that effort this year, with 437 faceoffs in 40 games.
While Yurov’s total time on ice has stayed fairly consistent, his deployment has become less favorable. He’s playing primarily as a third-line player and is also getting less time on the powerplay. The Russian forward played 2:20 TOI a game on the powerplay last year while logging just 1:53 TOI this season. When you factor in Yurov’s injury and line assignment and the fact that he’s getting less opportunity on the powerplay, it’s easy to see why he may be having a worse season.
Yurov is getting fewer opportunities, which is cause for concern and leads to questions about his team’s motivations in how they treat him. The best-faith interpretation is they're potentially mishandling a vaunted prospect. At worst, Magnitogorsk could actively be punishing him. That may seem far-fetched if you’re unfamiliar with the KHL’s history with NHL prospects. However, it isn’t the first time they’ve held back a North America-bound player.
Matvei Michkov struggled to find ice time with SKA St. Petersburg despite being one of the most promising prospects in the world. After they loaned him to HC Sochi, he showed just how good a player he was.
Michkov was a top NHL prospect, but SKA didn’t develop him because the team didn't see how it was in their best interest to develop a player who wouldn't stay with them. That's fair, but it’s often detrimental to a young player’s development. Looking at how he played in Sochi, it's challenging to say Michkov wasn't ready to contribute. SKA’s refusal to play him looks like spite for a player who will depart for North America.
Ivan Demidov is another top prospect going through a similar situation. Like Michkov, Demidov plays for SKA St. Petersburg and got off to a disappointing start to the season, and that lack of production correlates with a lack of opportunity.
Demidov is only averaging 12:15 a game this year, but that number has increased recently. When Demidov gets more ice time, he shows why he was worthy of being a top-five pick in last year's draft. After seeing his minutes increase, Demidov went on a tear, scoring 17 points in 11 games. The prospect is fortunate to have gotten his opportunity, but it's another case where questions surround his usage.
Both of those cases may seem a bit superfluous. After all, why should a KHL club develop a prospect who ultimately won't play for them? The KHL isn't a developmental league like the CHL or college. Their goal should be winning games. It's unfortunate but somewhat fair.
However, things can get much worse for Russian prospects hoping to jump to the NHL.
Ivan Fedotov, a Finnish-born Russian goaltender, was arrested in July 2022 for evading compulsory military service. That arrest occurred just a month after Fedotov signed an entry-level contract with the Philadelphia Flyers. The Washington Post’s Russia correspondent Mary Ilyushina later told ESPN this arrest likely was in retaliation to Fedetov signing with the Flyers.
"This type of snatching and sending young men to arctic bases has been used as retaliation against opposition figures in Russia," Mary Ilyushina said. "In this case, it may not have to do with opposition but rather abandoning a Russian club for an American one."
Fedotov's case is extreme, and he eventually made it to America after his club, CSKA Moscow, and the Russian hockey federation had a lengthy dispute with the IIHF. It's improbable that anything like this will happen to Danila Yurov, but that illustrates how the KHL can treat players set to leave as Yurov intends.
While an international incident looks unlikely, it is essential to note that Yurov may face backlash for his decision and is already doing so. It's easy to look at his numbers and worry that he may not be the player the Wild thought they had.
However, it's crucial to recognize that a significant factor in declining production may be more of a political response than related to his shortcomings. Yurov may become a star for the Wild, or he may not. But the team won't know what they have until he enters their system.
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