Is Marcus Johansson A Wild Card Or A Sunk Cost?

Marcus Johansson's 2023-24 season with the Minnesota Wild was a tale of two halves. While his arrival sparked a late-season surge last year, he hosted a nightly tour aboard the Frustration Express this year! 

Sure, he showed some flashes of brilliance late in the season, but that doesn't erase the invisible ghost of “MoJo,” who haunted the ice most nights! Wild fans deserve better than this inconsistent mess but don’t forget that Minnesota had nine starters out of the lineup at one point in the season. Even Wayne Gretzky may have struggled if he had missed that many teammates. Well, maybe not. But a guy who is minus-65 for his career isn’t going to become a superstar overnight just because the Wild needed that.  

Unfortunately, Bill Guerin went with Johansson over Gustav Nyquist after Johansson went on a heater with Matt Boldy when Kirill Kaprizov was out*. Geurin treated Johansson’s performance last season as redemption from his first stint with the Wild in 2020-21 and re-signed him. The fanbase saw the front office staring desperately at a desert mirage, parched for secondary scoring.   

Johansson struggled to find his footing early on this season. Injuries hampered his consistency, and his offensive production dipped. His defensive lapses and turnovers proved costly, raising questions about his overall impact on the ice.

The bottom line is that Johansson's $2 million cap hit is a hefty price tag for a player who delivered flashes of brilliance but lacked overall consistency while playing in a top-six role!

His defensive woes and reliance on linemates raise questions about his true value to the Wild. Minnesota needs reliable performers, and Johansson's Jekyll and Hyde act might not be the solution they need for a Stanley Cup run.

Let's face it: MoJo has a cap hit of only $2 million for the 2024-25 season with a full “no-trade clause” (NTC). He is a 33-year-old left wing who the Washington Capitals drafted 24th overall almost 15 years ago. He's made nearly $40 million from eight contracts with six teams, and Minnesota and Washington scooped him up for a second tour at the trade deadline.

Johansson has played 911 games over 14 seasons, accumulating 174 goals and 309 assists for a total of 483 points and minus 65 for his career.

He has value and can still be a contributing teammate in the right environment. But last season's 78-game calisthenics in-game training left most fans wishing Guerin would have kept Nyquist instead.

I see four options Billy can explore.  Which one would you choose?   

One Last Hurrah? Why Sticking with Johansson Might Be a Gamble Worth Taking

Johansson's inconsistency makes any Wild fan want to scream or throw things at the television. But here's a crazy thought: What if we just... ride it out? His contract year magic is undeniable. Maybe, just maybe, this could be his “one last hurrah” season. 

Sure, it's a gamble. But the Wild front office has far more egregious contracts, trades, and draft selections to be embarrassed about than letting a $2 million player work on his cardio in a bottom-six role during game night.   

However, the downside is limited because his contract is expiring. It could be a valuable boost for Minnesota’s playoff push if he catches fire. They can always reevaluate in the offseason with a clearer picture. Plus, with some younger players hungry for ice time, Johansson's presence could push them to elevate their game. It's a risky bet, but it could pay off with a deep playoff run. 

The Trade Route: Overcoming the No-Trade Clause

Removing MoJo from the roster will require a well-crafted strategy and multiple levels of creativity from the Minnesota Wild. Billy will have his work cut out because his performance might not justify his cost and full no-trade clause.  

The ideal scenario involves convincing Johansson to waive his no-trade clause. The only play I see to move this needle is a strategic financial and/or ego attack by taking this approach to the negotiations.  

The Wild could start by informing MoJo that they’re exploring the option of a buyout for his contract or assigning him to the AHL. However, if he was willing to waive his NTC, Minnesota could make an effort to find him a home with a team that is a true championship contender. Hey Dallas, Las Vegas, Edmonton – This is Bill Guerin; when you get a second, give me a call back.

To sweeten the deal, Guerin could package a late-round draft pick or a prospect behind the log jam like Dakota Mermis and/or retain a portion of his salary.  

The key to unlocking this trade resides solely with Johansson's willingness to cooperate. However, unloading two players who are not part of the Wild’s future and getting a million bucks back on the books in Minnesota’s cash-strapped final season would probably give Guerin a new nickname: “Miracle Maker!”

The Buyout Option: Weighing the Risks and Rewards

If trade negotiations fail, the Wild can consider a buyout. That approach offers immediate cap relief but has drawbacks because it wouldn’t free up enough cash for a league minimum contract.

According to CapFriendly, NHL buyouts typically spread out the cap hit over double the remaining contract years. Since Johansson has one year left on his deal, the Wild would be responsible for a cap hit spread over two seasons of $1.333 million. That would save the Wild only $666,000. If they send him to the AHL, his minor league salary is still $2 million.

If the Wild choose a buyout, timing is critical. Do they do it before or after the draft?

Buyouts can send a message to the locker room and fanbase that the team is serious about improvement and willing to make challenging decisions. Moving forward with a MoJo buyout will open up roster spots for young players to step up and become a core piece of the future.   

A buyout can also be a tactical motivation for the remaining players. By lighting a fire under the remaining players, letting them know that their performance matters and their jobs aren't guaranteed. No matter what, they signed the year before. 

Waiting until after the draft allows the Wild to leverage freed-up cap space to sign draft picks or extend contracts for key players.

The Wild Card Option: Could Johansson Find His Game in the AHL?

Let's face it, Wild fans are chomping at the bit for a change with Marcus Johansson. But before we banish him to the minors, consider this: Jon Merrill has been a healthy scratch for almost as many games as Mojo has dressed for, and he’s not on a bus to Des Moines.

Maybe playing in the less demanding AHL could allow Johansson to rediscover his confidence and work on his game. That would lead to a strong performance, potentially attracting a mid-season trade suitor in need of veteran depth.

Johansson's experience could be a goldmine for the young players in the Iowa Wild. I’m not saying he’ll turn one of them into the next Gretzky. Still, a different voice or perspective can go a long way when someone is trying to learn the finer details of the game. 

By fulfilling his contract in the AHL, Johansson frees up a roster spot on the Wild for a young player hungry for NHL ice time. This win-win allows Minnesota to focus on development while honoring its commitment to Johansson.

It's not an ideal scenario. Still, the AHL stint could catalyze a surprising turnaround for Johansson and the Wild's future. It's a gamble, but one with some intriguing possible benefits.

Removing Marcus Johansson from the roster requires a well-crafted strategic maneuver. While a trade with salary retention is ideal, the Wild must prepare to explore buyout options if negotiations stall. Ultimately, the best approach involves a combination of tactics that minimize the negative impacts while maximizing the potential return on investment.

The Wild can effectively navigate the Johansson situation by focusing on internal development alongside strategic trade or buyout maneuvers. That could lead to a more competitive roster in the long run, allowing them to pursue their championship aspirations.

*An earlier version of this article misstated Boldy's injury status. We regret the error.