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By Tony Abbott -
Brock Faber might be finding out that early narratives make breaking into the Calder Trophy discussion difficult. Entering the season, people anointed Connor Bedard as the NHL's next great player. By scoring 21 goals and 54 points on a truly dreadful Chicago Blackhawks team, he's maintained his status as a favorite for the NHL's top rookie honors.
That's despite Faber's strong push. He immediately had strong defensive play and slowly gained offense to his repertoire as the season wore on. He's second among rookies with 40 points in 71 games and has been a positive for Minnesota at 5-on-5 goal-scoring despite a 25-minute-per-night workload.
Faber's strong start forced a Calder Trophy race showdown with Bedard. That early, loud push elevated Faber to the national Calder discussion. But now another deserving Wild rookie is boxed out of the Calder discussion. In fact, you might say...
Tired: Brock Faber vs. Connor Bedard
Wired: Brock Faber vs. Marco Rossi
If Faber can mount a serious challenge to Bedard, why not Marco Rossi? The 2020 first-round pick realized his NHL potential this season, scoring his 19th and 20th goals on Saturday. Those two crucial goals helped the Wild get to overtime in a must-win game against the St. Louis Blues.
Those two goals put him within one of Bedard for the rookie lead. His 149 shots on goal and 20.04 expected goals are also second to only Bedard among rookies. After starting the season as a decided underdog in a loaded rookie class that included star prospects Bedard, Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, and more, he's got a case for being the second-best rookie forward.
Are either rookie's season enough to displace Bedard on top of the heap? Probably not. But it's worth asking which Wild rookie is more deserving of dethroning the preseason favorite.
The Case For Brock Faber
Faber's place in the national conversation makes him the de facto favorite, with good reason. With 40 points already under his belt, Faber is on pace to score 46 as a rookie. That'd already be tied for seventh-most by a rookie defenseman in the salary cap era.
That's already rarified air, and it can get better. A hot streak could push him to 50 points, putting him in the same category as Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Moritz Seider.
There is more to Faber's game than mere points, though. Faber has had an impact on goal-scoring on both ends of the ice at even-strength. Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement model rates his offensive impact as 26th in the NHL and his defense as 34th. It's no surprise that Faber's overall SPAR is 24th among defensemen.
Not rookie defensemen; he's first by a mile there. All defensemen. Expanding that to the rookie field, only Tyson Foerster has the edge on Faber's 3.4 SPAR.
Faber's defensive numbers have stagnated a touch as the season has gone on. Still, he's held up well, considering the insane workload he's taken on after extended injuries to Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. Only Rasmus Dahlin, Drew Doughty, John Carlson, and Mark Matheson have logged more minutes than Faber this season. Minnesota has asked so much from the rookie, and he's been everything they needed.
The Case For Marco Rossi
Given that Rossi is a forward and Faber is a defenseman, you might think that Rossi's 37 points to Faber's 40 should seal the deal for Faber as the winner. But a deeper look into Rossi's numbers reveals that it isn't so straightforward.
If you value the 5-on-5 part of the game, Rossi stands with or above any other rookie. Rossi's 17 goals at 5-on-5 lead all rookies, and his 31 points are exactly tied with Bedard. It gets even more impressive when you realize his 17 goals are tied for 24th in the NHL. He has as many 5-on-5 goals as Kirill Kaprizov, J.T. Miller, and Carter Verhaeghe. That isn't a fluke, either. Rossi comes by his goals honestly, getting to the net with regularity. His 13.73 expected goals at 5-on-5 are only behind Bedard in this year's rookie class.
And if the case for Faber over Bedard hinges on Faber's superior two-way play, Rossi might have an even better case than Faber. When Rossi is on the ice at 5-on-5, Minnesota scores 55.8% of the goals and controls 54.2% of the expected goals share. Those marks certainly best Bedard, who is underwater in both categories, albeit for a historically awful team, and even Faber (51.3% of the goal share, 52.8% of the expected goal share).
While he doesn't have the kind of workload a top defenseman like Faber is getting, the Wild are hardly sheltering Rossi. Only Kaprizov has logged more 5-on-5 ice time among Wild forwards, and Rossi's time on ice at 5-on-5 (968 minutes) is 42nd among all forwards. That's nearly 1000 minutes of Minnesota scoring 56% of their goals.
His SPAR takes a knock from both his poor power play performance (relegated mostly to the second unit) and his linemates' dreadful shooting. Rossi has scored 17 of the 40 5-on-5 goals that have happened on the ice. The rest of his 5-on-5 teammates have scored 23 goals on 355 shots, shooting just 6.5% on the season.
Looking at xStandings Points Above Replacement, which de-emphasizes that shooting percentage luck, Rossi fares significantly better. Rossi's on top of the rookie heap with 3.8 xSPAR on the season, almost a full standings point's worth over second-place Connor Zary (3.1). Curiously, that also puts him far ahead of Bedard and Faber, who rate much better in SPAR than xSPAR.
As with Faber's SPAR, Rossi's xSPAR is not just great for a rookie but is great in general, tied with Bo Horvat at 51st among NHL forwards. Rossi's impact on the standings is slightly greater than top centers like Anze Kopitar (3.7 xSPAR), Nico Hischier (3.3), and Mathew Barzal (3.2). Any time you're at eye level or looking down at guys like that, you're doing something right.
Of course, no matter who gets the most votes in the national voting, the Wild will be the big winners of the Calder Trophy series. When you have two legitimate contenders, that's always a good sign. As for which one deserves the honor more? It's a cop-out, but it depends on what you find more valuable. Is your preference the minute-munching power play quarterback of a defenseman or a center who logs heavy, tough minutes and regularly puts the puck in the net? The voters have to choose, but Minnesota doesn't.
But while Faber is getting the most oxygen at the national level concerning Minnesota Wild rookies, it's clear that Rossi deserves a seat at the table every bit as much as his defense counterpart. Fans in the State of Hockey who are decrying the hockey world potentially overlooking Faber come awards season should be careful not to do the same to their other stud rookie.
All stats via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
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