Jump to content
Hockey Wilderness Zone Coverage Property
  • Is Any (Realistic) 2024 Draft Pick Worth Marco Rossi?


    Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
    Tony Abbott

    If you are familiar with "Magic: The Gathering" (or the Pokemon Trading Card Game, or the My Little Pony Collectible Card Game, or anything similar), you know that sometimes the best tool at your disposal is to shuffle your hand into your deck, and draw new cards completely. You're starting from scratch and entering the unknown, but it can save you from an otherwise difficult position.

    Next week, we could see the Minnesota Wild doing their version of shuffling their hand into their deck with Marco Rossi. For whatever reason, the team is constantly rumored to be shopping their first-rounder from 2020, even after scoring 21 goals as a rookie.

    Looking at the teams that reportedly have interest -- which include the Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, and the Utah Hockey Club -- not many of them have the kind of bigger, faster, young player that Minnesota is allegedly seeking in return. Does 6-foot-0 Joel Farabee, who scored a career-high 22 goals in his fifth season, do it for Minnesota? Are NHL players like Montreal's Kirby Dach or Utah's Dylan Guenther even touchable in trades? It's hard to say.

    As for prospects, the field isn't great for the big, strong, fast guys Bill Guerin would be looking for, outside of Utah (which, hey, sounds like a story for another day). So, if a deal needs to get done, the Wild will probably need a draft pick to do it. Fortunately, all of them have picks to give. Montreal (No. 5 overall), Utah (6), Ottawa (7), Calgary (9), and Philly (12) are ahead of Minnesota's No. 13 slot at the draft. There are even more picks to spare with most of these teams in the first two rounds, as follows:

    CGY: Nos. 28, 41, and 62
    MON: Nos. 26, 57
    OTT: Nos. 25, 39
    PHI: No. 51
    UTA: Nos. 38, 49, 64/65 (via the Florida Panthers)

    Maybe a combination of late-firsts and second-round picks could get a Rossi deal done, but let's aim for one of those top-12 picks here. If the Wild could flip Rossi to one of these teams, would it be worth it for them to re-shuffle their hand and draw again? Do the prospects in the No. 5-12 range have so much upside that it's worth sacrificing a 20-goal center?

    First, let's try to figure out who would be available to the Wild. Looking at seven prominent Mock Drafts*, Macklin Celebrini is a slam-dunk first-overall pick, with Artyom Levshunov a near-unanimous No. 2. The mostly-consensus next three players are 6-foot-7 defenseman Anton Silyayev, future KHL star Ivan Demidov, and power center Cayden Lindstrom. Of the seven mocks we looked at, Lindstrom is available at No. 5 overall four times, Demidov three, and Silyayev once.

    Full-stop, it's 100% worth trading someone like Rossi for Demidov. He'll be expected to be with SKA-St. Petersburg next season after recording 60 points (23 goals) in 30 MHL games last year. And while you never, ever know the contract status of these top Russian prospects, Demidov is apparently willing to forgo signing a contract after next season and go to North America. 

    Things get more interesting with Lindstrom and Silayev, should they be available at fifth overall. Both players have high-end tools, but Lindstrom (27 goals, 46 points in 32 games) didn't dominate the WHL in scoring to the degree that, say, Berkly Catton (54 goals, 116 points in 68 games) did. The Wild would surely want Silayev if he's available, and he was a 17-year-old defenseman in the KHL. However, will he have more upside than his 11 points in 63 games shows? It's not a guarantee.

    But, hey, we're picking nits on great prospects. It's a good bet that Guerin would be willing to parlay Rossi into that fifth-overall spot. What happens if they can't and have to settle for the 6-12 range?

    Their top options at Nos. 6, 7, 9, or 12 become some combination of:

    Defenseman Zeev Buium
    Center Berkly Catton
    Defenseman Sam Dickinson
    Center Konsta Helenius
    Center Tij Iginla
    Winger Zayne Parekh
    Winger Beckett Sennecke

    Which ones make sense to target as a pick in a Rossi trade?

    Immediately, it feels like Catton or Helenius straight-up for Rossi is a waste of time for Minnesota. A Rossi trade should, at minimum, add a skill set lacking in the Wild organization or a meaningful chance to get a better player than Rossi. To be a good trade, it has to have both. Whatever bumps Rossi had in the road, he entered the season with a 69% chance of becoming a star, according to Hockey Prospecting, with a level of defensive value that these models can't measure.

    image.png

    Catton and Helenius arguably fail the first test. Both centers have smaller frames (5-foot-10 and 5-foot-11, respectively) with strong offense. Catton separates himself somewhat with elite speed, but Helenius' two-way skill set mirrors Rossi almost one-to-one. As for their ultimate upside? Neither appears more likely to become a star player than Rossi did entering this season.

    image.png

    Iginla hits the 6-foot mark on the height chart, which is hockey's unofficial Not Small Line. He has electric offensive talent and is one of the youngest players in the draft, making him worth a flier. But is he a slam-dunk to be better than Rossi? Hockey Prospecting is somewhat down on his stardom odds (seemingly thanks to a six-goal WHL season last year). However, he's probably not an instant contributor nor a bet to stick down the middle.

    A strong playoff had Sennecke as a late riser in the draft, with a 6-foot-2 frame and loads of skill. The big question is whether you believe in his postseason numbers (10 goals, 22 points in 16 games) or his good-not-great regular season (27 goals, 68 points in 63 games). Judging by the bigger sample, it seems like a longer shot for Sennecke to have a more valuable career than Rossi.

    So, what of the defensemen? Buium, Dickinson, and Parekh are all great prospects, but do they bring an element to Minnesota that they don't have?

    Faber is sort of the model for Wild defensemen. They're not the biggest, strongest, or most skilled. However, they can skate very well and defend with their feet and brains. Buium and Parekh are highly skilled defense prospects whose numbers jump off the page at Hockey Prospecting (73% and 84% Star Probability, respectively). That would help Minnesota, but they don't bring the size the Wild might target.

    Dickinson has that frame at 6-foot-3, but Minnesota might be able to get a high-upside, big-bodied defenseman at Pick 13 while keeping Rossi. Carter Yakemchuk is sort of everything Minnesota's young defensemen aren't: Insanely dynamic and hard-hitting. There's also the possibility that Buium, Dickinson, or Parekh fall to the Wild, anyway. Why give up Rossi if there's a good chance you're coming away with one of those guys anyway?

    image.png

    Hey, maybe two lottery tickets are better than one. But Minnesota already has one of those lottery tickets and a good shot at picking at least one player on this list, and it has a likely shot at Yakemchuk or sniper Cole Eiserman. They have Rossi, who is in the NHL, scoring 20-plus goals, playing center, and still on an Entry-Level Contract. If the Wild can't land a Top-5 player, they're best off keeping Rossi and whichever player from the next tier falls to them at 13. 

    * Mock Drafts Used: McKeen's Draft Guide, The Athletic (Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Staff), TSN's Craig Button, NHL.com (Adam Kimmelman, Mike Morreale)

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    • Like 3

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    55 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

    I think you misunderstand me. I like Rossi and think he has a solid future ahead of him. But I believe the old saying "everything is for sale, depending on the return" applies. If the wild can acquire a better player, heck yes, make the deal. My fear is that they would settle for a player like Jenner who best years are behind him. He has had to carry a lot of the load in his career and there is wear and tear.

    Yeah, not another Vanek or Heatly thing with a guy who has just one year left at 3.75M. Just a player type and qualities different from Rossi but a center from a team who may be looking to make changes. I agree the Wild should not get stuck with more aging vets.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    4 hours ago, BillieGismylover said:

    Let’s see what Billy can do with a full deck of cards next offseason.

    We saw it last fall with Foligno/Zucc/Hartman, and are gonna get another dose of it in July with Middleton. After Faber/Kaprizov, what's gonna be left?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    15 hours ago, Dean said:

    So trade the one guy who can play on a mcdavid level

    Kaprizov is nowhere near McDavid. Have you ever seen Kaprizov skate through three or more dmen and score? I think Kaprizov has grown into a bit of a mythical figure around here. Yes he's good but not even close to a McDavid level player nor will he ever be.  

    If he wants to leave for whatever reason than you have to face the reality. Trade him sooner than later. 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Kaprizov is a bigger than life guy and since he's quiet and consistently good at scoring, it's impossible not to like and appreciate having him on the team. 

    But you're right it can't last forever and the team can't be completely reliant on one guy. McDavid or Draisaitl have off nights or get shut down. Injuries can derail dominance by Ek. The Wild need to begin assembly of the post-penalties group at an increased pace. Maybe Kaprizov will want to stay but if not, the timing will be great to get a nice return as Spurgeon and Foligno become the Goligoski if they're still around. 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

    gonna get another dose of it in July with Middleton.

    While I agree that Guerin deserves second guessing on his unforced errors, I’m waffling on midzy.  He’s a solid locker room guy (good for team culture which builds slowly over years), he’s big,  and he’s above average defensively.  But could the 4.25M w/NMC be spent more wisely?

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

    Kaprizov is nowhere near McDavid. Have you ever seen Kaprizov skate through three or more dmen and score? I think Kaprizov has grown into a bit of a mythical figure around here. Yes he's good but not even close to a McDavid level player nor will he ever be.  

    If he wants to leave for whatever reason than you have to face the reality. Trade him sooner than later. 

    Mcdavid is arguably the best player in the league so no 97 is not in his league but I’d argue 97 is in leagues top 15-20 forwards in the league in all around hockey play making ability (isn’t there a corsi stat that would prove this).  He’s the best player the Wild org has ever had (gabby a DISTANT second), so to fumble and let 97 go so we can wait another 25 years for similar talent would suck.  25 yrs of a revolving door of mikko koivus, antti miettenen, James Shepard and Chuck kobasew’s…no thank you.  

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

    If he wants to leave for whatever reason than you have to face the reality.

    Yes if 97 doesn’t intend to re-sign (and this is the GM’s job to know one way or the other) Guerin cannot allow another Gaborik situation where he walks for nothing

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 6/21/2024 at 8:35 AM, Citizen Strife said:

    The last I'd heard, Russo said something like, "temper expectations" on Rossi going.  It's obviously if there's an amazing deal out there, do it.  But, like the Gus situation, you have time.  Maybe a trade deadline situation?  Aren't teams more desperate and likely to sell more than they want for stuff then?

    Pretty sure that he said that and that Russo insinuated that BG was walked back a bit from the pro scouts. I have no problem with BG seeing what he can get for Rossi, and I expect that is what he is doing. But, unless it's a homerun then he shouldn't pull the trigger. Seems like BG realized that the team needed more size and Rossi was the piece that he could trade that would get the most back. He checked to see what others might be willing and calmed down a bit when he saw what was available. If that is the case, then he was doing his job. 

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 6/21/2024 at 10:43 AM, Protec said:

    At a surface level, yes I would agree with you. When you stop and think about a 31yo character-guy with experience and history of greasy playoff performances who can score nearly as much as current day Rossi, there's no reason to automatically assume he couldn't help the Wild achieve balance. Plus he's on a decent deal that isn't too long. Been a captain on that struggling team. If he wanted to make the tail-end of his career count, could MN be a good place to do it? If he had a good year or not, you could extend him or move on. My point is that the "different look" for MN with Laine could be potent offensively but a more responsible, more complete, versatile guy would be less flashy, but better for the Wild's balance. That's why I believe they're testing the waters for Rossi. The Wild have a style and presence with Rossi that might be less big & fast than what's needed to defeat Dallas, Vegas, or Edmonton in the playoffs. 

    I just don't think the Wild can expect all the stars to align perfectly where all the players we have or select become the Cup winning team. Kaprizov is here now and the Wild are a team that can make the playoffs. They're a team that can do what Winnipeg or Nashville did last year to turnaround their crummy Central finish. They could follow Edmonton's example and make adjustments to a Round 1 loser team and get deep into the playoffs.

    A lot of love for Rossi here and that's great. He's overcome a lot and become productive. I just wonder how anyone can contrast him to a Barkov, Zibenejad, O'Rielly, Miller, Draisaitl, Byfield, or Benn, or any of the guys you'd have to beat to reach a Cup Final? We can't pretend Rossi is going to become better than or equal to those guys in ALL aspects because those guys are much bigger, stronger, or more experienced. MN likes Rossi too much. Nothing personal but saying Guerin is stupid to trade him is very narrow-minded. 

    Personally, I'd prefer Trent Frederic, but Boston trading him for Rossi is way less likely. Jenner is an easy target to be critical of sure. I'm just not with you guys who think keeping Rossi as a core-guy is critical. I would like to see the Wild make a stronger push in the last two Kaprizov years to win and prove they're a team who can win more. It's an important part of keeping Kirill around, but if it doesn't happen, the Wild are still deficient at center with Ek, and Rossi as your top guys or expecting Hartman, Yurov, or potentially Knudi, Heidt, Stramel to be top NHL centers. That takes time and experience which MN has almost none. Rossi has yet to play a single playoff game. I don't know him, but does he crank it up for playoffs or is he like other Euros who struggle under pressure and physicality? We've kinda seen that already. Not in the playoffs and yeah he's still young so I'm not trying to rip Rossi, but I'd like to see the Wild find balance in more ways than just stat-lines or future potential. 

    Where have you been watching hockey? Boone for rossi, I'm sorry you should lose your job at the mere suggestion. He's mediocre and only getting worse. He's benefited from being the "only guy" for now.

    Why are we talking about trading a guy with huge upside for more prospects or aging vets that may never be CLOSE to his upside... especially one who may hit the HIGHEST Of that upside in a year or 2. This is why mn can never have anything nice.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 6/22/2024 at 8:35 AM, Pewterschmidt said:

    While I agree that Guerin deserves second guessing on his unforced errors, I’m waffling on midzy.  He’s a solid locker room guy (good for team culture which builds slowly over years), he’s big,  and he’s above average defensively.  But could the 4.25M w/NMC be spent more wisely?

    You overspend by atleast 1.25 or more, probably 2 mil. Dont get me wrong, love muddy, just NO ONE would have spent that... if they would have hunt was atleast bringing up along with like peart or lambos... yea yea, hear they aren't worth it. 

    OK, why pay more for a guy who's ceiling wasNT ever as high(not to knock mid AT ALL). being a gm seems to get the way of Billy's ego...

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    The Rossi-lovers need to remember he's barely inside the top 20 from his draft. He's had heart damage and is one of the smallest guys without dynamic speed or agility. High hockey IQ, and great work ethic but stumping that he'll carry the Wild one day or that he's totally indispensable is silly. NYR isn't gonna automatically extend Lafreniere who was good for the playoffs but MN should make Rossi a core guy cause he scored 40pts and played a full season. 

    MN needs to get better, bigger, faster, now, not in a couple years when Brodin is old, Faber is on a defensive island, and Kaprizov moves to FL. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 6/21/2024 at 9:03 PM, Tony Abbott said:

    We saw it last fall with Foligno/Zucc/Hartman, and are gonna get another dose of it in July with Middleton. After Faber/Kaprizov, what's gonna be left?

    The Wild aren’t going anywhere until the Parise and Suter contracts are off the books. They overachieved two years ago and got stomped by a bigger, faster team. Same old story. If one of the big Defensemen falls to us tomorrow and we can eventually find a way to unload Spurgeon it would be a great start to the offseason.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...