By Tony Abbott -
If you are familiar with "Magic: The Gathering" (or the Pokemon Trading Card Game, or the My Little Pony Collectible Card Game, or anything similar), you know that sometimes the best tool at your disposal is to shuffle your hand into your deck, and draw new cards completely. You're starting from scratch and entering the unknown, but it can save you from an otherwise difficult position.
Next week, we could see the Minnesota Wild doing their version of shuffling their hand into their deck with Marco Rossi. For whatever reason, the team is constantly rumored to be shopping their first-rounder from 2020, even after scoring 21 goals as a rookie.
Looking at the teams that reportedly have interest -- which include the Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, and the Utah Hockey Club -- not many of them have the kind of bigger, faster, young player that Minnesota is allegedly seeking in return. Does 6-foot-0 Joel Farabee, who scored a career-high 22 goals in his fifth season, do it for Minnesota? Are NHL players like Montreal's Kirby Dach or Utah's Dylan Guenther even touchable in trades? It's hard to say.
As for prospects, the field isn't great for the big, strong, fast guys Bill Guerin would be looking for, outside of Utah (which, hey, sounds like a story for another day). So, if a deal needs to get done, the Wild will probably need a draft pick to do it. Fortunately, all of them have picks to give. Montreal (No. 5 overall), Utah (6), Ottawa (7), Calgary (9), and Philly (12) are ahead of Minnesota's No. 13 slot at the draft. There are even more picks to spare with most of these teams in the first two rounds, as follows:
CGY: Nos. 28, 41, and 62
MON: Nos. 26, 57
OTT: Nos. 25, 39
PHI: No. 51
UTA: Nos. 38, 49, 64/65 (via the Florida Panthers)
Maybe a combination of late-firsts and second-round picks could get a Rossi deal done, but let's aim for one of those top-12 picks here. If the Wild could flip Rossi to one of these teams, would it be worth it for them to re-shuffle their hand and draw again? Do the prospects in the No. 5-12 range have so much upside that it's worth sacrificing a 20-goal center?
First, let's try to figure out who would be available to the Wild. Looking at seven prominent Mock Drafts*, Macklin Celebrini is a slam-dunk first-overall pick, with Artyom Levshunov a near-unanimous No. 2. The mostly-consensus next three players are 6-foot-7 defenseman Anton Silyayev, future KHL star Ivan Demidov, and power center Cayden Lindstrom. Of the seven mocks we looked at, Lindstrom is available at No. 5 overall four times, Demidov three, and Silyayev once.
Full-stop, it's 100% worth trading someone like Rossi for Demidov. He'll be expected to be with SKA-St. Petersburg next season after recording 60 points (23 goals) in 30 MHL games last year. And while you never, ever know the contract status of these top Russian prospects, Demidov is apparently willing to forgo signing a contract after next season and go to North America.
Things get more interesting with Lindstrom and Silayev, should they be available at fifth overall. Both players have high-end tools, but Lindstrom (27 goals, 46 points in 32 games) didn't dominate the WHL in scoring to the degree that, say, Berkly Catton (54 goals, 116 points in 68 games) did. The Wild would surely want Silayev if he's available, and he was a 17-year-old defenseman in the KHL. However, will he have more upside than his 11 points in 63 games shows? It's not a guarantee.
But, hey, we're picking nits on great prospects. It's a good bet that Guerin would be willing to parlay Rossi into that fifth-overall spot. What happens if they can't and have to settle for the 6-12 range?
Their top options at Nos. 6, 7, 9, or 12 become some combination of:
Defenseman Zeev Buium
Center Berkly Catton
Defenseman Sam Dickinson
Center Konsta Helenius
Center Tij Iginla
Winger Zayne Parekh
Winger Beckett Sennecke
Which ones make sense to target as a pick in a Rossi trade?
Immediately, it feels like Catton or Helenius straight-up for Rossi is a waste of time for Minnesota. A Rossi trade should, at minimum, add a skill set lacking in the Wild organization or a meaningful chance to get a better player than Rossi. To be a good trade, it has to have both. Whatever bumps Rossi had in the road, he entered the season with a 69% chance of becoming a star, according to Hockey Prospecting, with a level of defensive value that these models can't measure.
Catton and Helenius arguably fail the first test. Both centers have smaller frames (5-foot-10 and 5-foot-11, respectively) with strong offense. Catton separates himself somewhat with elite speed, but Helenius' two-way skill set mirrors Rossi almost one-to-one. As for their ultimate upside? Neither appears more likely to become a star player than Rossi did entering this season.
Iginla hits the 6-foot mark on the height chart, which is hockey's unofficial Not Small Line. He has electric offensive talent and is one of the youngest players in the draft, making him worth a flier. But is he a slam-dunk to be better than Rossi? Hockey Prospecting is somewhat down on his stardom odds (seemingly thanks to a six-goal WHL season last year). However, he's probably not an instant contributor nor a bet to stick down the middle.
A strong playoff had Sennecke as a late riser in the draft, with a 6-foot-2 frame and loads of skill. The big question is whether you believe in his postseason numbers (10 goals, 22 points in 16 games) or his good-not-great regular season (27 goals, 68 points in 63 games). Judging by the bigger sample, it seems like a longer shot for Sennecke to have a more valuable career than Rossi.
So, what of the defensemen? Buium, Dickinson, and Parekh are all great prospects, but do they bring an element to Minnesota that they don't have?
Faber is sort of the model for Wild defensemen. They're not the biggest, strongest, or most skilled. However, they can skate very well and defend with their feet and brains. Buium and Parekh are highly skilled defense prospects whose numbers jump off the page at Hockey Prospecting (73% and 84% Star Probability, respectively). That would help Minnesota, but they don't bring the size the Wild might target.
Dickinson has that frame at 6-foot-3, but Minnesota might be able to get a high-upside, big-bodied defenseman at Pick 13 while keeping Rossi. Carter Yakemchuk is sort of everything Minnesota's young defensemen aren't: Insanely dynamic and hard-hitting. There's also the possibility that Buium, Dickinson, or Parekh fall to the Wild, anyway. Why give up Rossi if there's a good chance you're coming away with one of those guys anyway?
Hey, maybe two lottery tickets are better than one. But Minnesota already has one of those lottery tickets and a good shot at picking at least one player on this list, and it has a likely shot at Yakemchuk or sniper Cole Eiserman. They have Rossi, who is in the NHL, scoring 20-plus goals, playing center, and still on an Entry-Level Contract. If the Wild can't land a Top-5 player, they're best off keeping Rossi and whichever player from the next tier falls to them at 13.
* Mock Drafts Used: McKeen's Draft Guide, The Athletic (Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Staff), TSN's Craig Button, NHL.com (Adam Kimmelman, Mike Morreale)
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
-
3
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.