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  • Is 2024 the Ideal Time For the Wild To Trade Their First-Round Pick?


    Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
    Tony Abbott

    The Minnesota Wild's season is over, and the State of Hockey can finally turn its attention to the summer. We discovered that the Wild will pick 13th in the 2024 Draft, barring a 4.2% chance of winning the lottery. The 13th pick isn't much consolation after missing the playoffs. Still, this is their third-highest draft position since picking Matt Dumba 7th overall in 2012.

    The Wild picked at No. 9 once (Marco Rossi) in 2020, when the Wild dropped into the top 10 after weird circumstances bumped Minnesota into the thick of the Draft Lottery. The other high-ish pick they've had in the last dozen seasons was in 2019, following their only other playoff miss over that span. They snagged franchise building block Matt Boldy.

    It's no secret that the Wild have built up an arsenal of young talent, with Boldy, Rossi, and Brock Faber already dazzling in the NHL and more impact prospects on the way. Their stockpile of young players will be expected to help them compete in the 2025-26 season, right as the worst of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout penalties expire.

    If all goes well, that season should kick off Minnesota's contention window. Will that No. 13 overall draft pick be a factor, then? The Wild need to consider this question as they weigh their options for the draft. 

    Draft picks aren't just potential NHLers. They're the NHL's legal tender, able to be swapped for sweet, sweet, NHL-ready assets. The Wild have almost exclusively been on the "Buyer" side for draft picks, at least their most important ones. Minnesota has made at least three selections in the first two rounds in the last five drafts. The only major pick they've surrendered was one of their three second-rounders in the 2022 Draft via the Marc-Andre Fleury trade.

    Hoarding top picks like toilet paper in March 2020 was a welcome change for Wild fans who'd seen their favorite team draft in the first two rounds just six times in six years (2013 to 2018). There might even be justifiable hesitation going back to the direction of selling draft picks.

    The pendulum will have to swing back there eventually. Why not start this summer? They might have had a dreadful season, and their dead cap woes will continue one more year, but they have compelling reasons not to simply take a knee next season.

    Most importantly, they have to make a pitch to convince Kirill Kaprizov to stay long-term. With 33 goals and 60 points over his final 37 games, Kaprizov showed he's capable of an MVP-caliber performance. They can't lose a player like that, and not trying to compete next year is, at the very least, not making Minnesota's best pitch to their superstar.

    They may also have the horses to get them to the postseason, even with their dead cap hit. Sportlogiq's expected goals data suggests Minnesota could've comfortably finished in a Wild Card spot with neutral goaltending. If the Wild can fix that (and since goaltending is voodoo, that's hard to predict), they have a playoff team, and adding NHL-ready talent can only increase their margin for error.

    What's the likelihood that their first-round pick can do that next year? Or even the year after that?

    Surprisingly, we've seen some prospects get on the fast track from the 13th overall pick to the NHL. Let's look at those picks from the last five drafts and see how long it took for them to make the NHL full-time.

    2023, Zach Benson, Buffalo Sabres: 71 Games Played in (Draft+1 season)
    2022, Frank Nazar, Chicago Blackhawks: Expected to play in Draft+3 season
    2021, Matthew Coronato, Calgary Flames: 33 GP in 2023-24 (Draft+3 season)
    2020, Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes: 68 GP in 2021-22 (Draft+2 season)
    2019, Spencer Knight, Florida Panthers: 32 GP in 2021-22 (Draft+3 season)

    Benson and Jarvis represent the ideal timetable for the Wild to make an impact. If Minnesota gets a player like Benson, whom they determine is ready to go, the wait for contributions doesn't matter. If they have someone with Jarvis' timetable, they only need to wait until the 2025-26 season, which perfectly matches Minnesota's timetable.

    If that player turns out to be on the timetable of Nazar, Coronato, or Knight, though? That complicates matters. We also have to consider more than just games -- did Benson or Jarvis make an immediate impact?

    Jarvis indisputably did, scoring 40 points in 68 games and delivering the Hurricanes 4.2 Standings Points Above Replacement in his rookie season. But Benson scored just 30 points in his 71 games, earning his team just 0.4 SPAR. That's not bad, but it's not a great case that Minnesota will get an immediate impact from their pick next year.

    You can't solely rely on the past for guidance, though. There may be a Benson or Jarvis up for grabs for Minnesota, and there might not be. It depends on the caliber of player that falls into the Wild's range.

    Draft boards will change, and opinions will vary from team to team and person to person. But let's check out the draft board The Athletic's Corey Pronman recently released. At the 13th spot in his rankings, there are still three players from his "Top of the lineup player" tier of prospect: defenseman Adam Jiricek, winger Cole Eiserman, and center Tij Iginla.

    Draft time is ready-made for hyperbole. Everyone in Minnesota loves Jonas Brodin. But people compared him to Nicklas Lidstrom when the Wild drafted him, and Brodin didn't become the best defenseman of all time. Pronman's scouting reports are particularly useful because he seeks to avoid hyperbole when comparing prospects to NHLers. 

    The realistic outcomes Pronman envisions for those three prospects are, respectively, Vladislav Gavrikov, Owen Tippett, and John-Jason Peterka. Are those all good players? Sure. Gavrikov gave the Los Angeles Kings 20-plus minutes a night on the blue line, and Tippett and Peterka scored 28 goals and hit the 50-point mark this season.

    But they didn't do it right away. Gavrikov took the long way to the NHL as a sixth-round pick in 2015. He didn't make the NHL until his age-24 season -- although playing in the KHL may have been a factor.

    The Florida Panthers drafted Tippett No. 10 overall in 2017 and didn't make the NHL full-time until 2020-21, his Draft+4 season. Even then, it took two years and a change of scenery for Tippett to unlock his potential. 

    Peterka was faster to becoming an NHL regular than those two. The Buffalo Bills drafted him in 2020 (No. 34 overall) and debuted full-time in the 2022-23 season (Draft+3). He made a minimal impact as a rookie, though, only truly breaking out this season.

    None of this means that these players can't beat their comparisons' timetables. It also doesn't mean higher-rated, more NHL-ready players can't fall to Minnesota. But what's more likely to happen: The No. 13 pick delivering relatively immediate impact or the Wild being able to turn that pick into a player that pushes the needle?

    Minnesota has to be careful to make the money work, targeting a player with at least one cheap year left on their deal before needing a raise. But if they can find such a player, their pick should have value.

    In 2018, the Calgary Flames turned their 12th overall selection into first-pair defenseman Travis Hamonic. The Ottawa Senators acquired Alex DeBrincat by packaging their 7th overall pick to the Chicago Blackhawks in 2021. Six picks later, the Montreal Canadiens acquired Kirby Dach with Minnesota's exact draft position. 

    If Minnesota wants an avenue to fix their secondary scoring or blue line, they don't need to trade a roster player like Rossi. They don't have to sacrifice a top prospect knocking on the NHL's door, like Liam Öhgren or Danila Yurov. They have a good lottery ticket at No. 13 overall, but it's exchangeable for a player who pushes up their contention window and keeps Kaprizov happy. Why not cash it in now?

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    Drafting players is definitely the way to go when building a team.  I'm glad the Wild are no longer giving away their picks.  Now we need to go to IA and make sure the prospects are becoming the best possible players IA can develop them into.  I'm not convinced that they are doing the best job down there to give these young players the best chance of success.  Without that the draft strategy will never get us a SC.

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    Tony… You’ve got questions? We’ve got answers. The 25-26 season isn’t the year to swing for the fences. A more realistic scenario would be starting in 27-28. If you see the stars aligning and younger players hitting their development goals… sure, trade a pick, prospect and maybe even a puck to add a key missing piece. 

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    The Wild need to trade up and draft Zeev Buium.  We have a severe lack of depth on the back end in our prospect pool.  Could you imagine a #1 pair of Faber and Buium in 2 years?  Let's git r done Billy G.  

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    I criticize the heck out of Billy but I must say his end of season presser was good. He seems a little humble and willing to take some blame for lack of depth. This year I agree with everything he was saying. IMO this year he was honest in his assessment of the team. The fact he wasn’t happy with compete level this year is good. He wants to get bigger , stronger , faster. He wants to upgrade forwards through free agency or trade . He wants to upgrade the team. He’s thinking about kappy and proving the wild are serious about winning. 
       Ive also been impressed with Hynes s honesty lately an in presser. He’s talked about guys not showing up for games or disappearing during games. He said in exit interviews players talked about being mentally weak with a whoa  is me mentality.  Something we watched all year long. Both he a Billy talked about addressing this mentality and compete level. I think that’s great an a big part of there problem. 
         This years presser was definitely better than last. They said all the right things . Now it’s what does Billy do? I’m definitely curious now going into the offseason and draft. What is Billy’s idea of upgrading the forwards and adding depth in Iowa  going to be? 
         It seems to me , Billy has grown as a gm from this past year.  Hopefully his ideas work and he’s got something up his sleeve 

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    2 hours ago, Dean said:

    I criticize the heck out of Billy but I must say his end of season presser was good. He seems a little humble and willing to take some blame for lack of depth. This year I agree with everything he was saying. IMO this year he was honest in his assessment of the team. The fact he wasn’t happy with compete level this year is good. He wants to get bigger , stronger , faster. He wants to upgrade forwards through free agency or trade . He wants to upgrade the team. He’s thinking about kappy and proving the wild are serious about winning. 
       Ive also been impressed with Hynes s honesty lately an in presser. He’s talked about guys not showing up for games or disappearing during games. He said in exit interviews players talked about being mentally weak with a whoa  is me mentality.  Something we watched all year long. Both he a Billy talked about addressing this mentality and compete level. I think that’s great an a big part of there problem. 
         This years presser was definitely better than last. They said all the right things . Now it’s what does Billy do? I’m definitely curious now going into the offseason and draft. What is Billy’s idea of upgrading the forwards and adding depth in Iowa  going to be? 
         It seems to me , Billy has grown as a gm from this past year.  Hopefully his ideas work and he’s got something up his sleeve 

    If Guerin can admit Johansson was a fail and begin by replacing him, Minnesota could be a better team simply by not having #90. NoJo DID find consistency this year. The lazy, uninspiring kind. The final game costing the team the lead on his tripping penalty and posting zero points was a microcosm for his season. Everyone wondering, what do you do?

    He got on the scoresheet 25 times in 78 games. With a minus 15 rating he was a plus player just 17 times. I know he's on an affordable contract but I really hope GMBG will find another way to cultivate 30pts from a player who shows up and doesn't drag the team down from an attitude and morale standpoint. NoJo is the ultimate example of a player that lacked passion or desire on a regular basis. The Wild paid for a 30pt Swedish drift-sock that got wrapped up in the prop and Guerin has gotta try to untangle it while all the other boats cruise by grinning...

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    The Wild paid for a 30pt Swedish drift-sock that got wrapped up in the prop and Guerin has gotta try to untangle it while all the other boats cruise by grinning...

    As Minnesota an analogy as I've heard in a while...

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    I would be fine if the Wild make a play via trade for a big top 4 dman in their prime. I’m not a size queen but do realize we could use some weighty players on our backend

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    44 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

    I would be fine if the Wild make a play via trade for a big top 4 dman in their prime. I’m not a size queen but do realize we could use some weighty players on our backend

    I am trying to picture what "a size queen" is and looks like. The old sailor in me is really curious.

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    I think everything should be on the table. This particular draft seems to have some very good players through pick #14. Players that we could really use.

    I think Tony only wrote half the article. Perhaps, this is just part 1? What we don't have are suggestions of what the Wild would be looking to swap #13 for. 

    Could David Jiricek be one of those players? Instead of Rossi going over, #13 goes. Jiricek would be much closer to helping the team and carries the physical attributes we would be looking for in a top pairing Dman. 

    If we were going for a forward, my hope would be a RHS guy with a lethal shot from Ovechkin's office. For me, a Patrik Laine at $4.375m/yr. for the next 2 years looks like it would work. I'd have to say that a change for him could resurrect his career. Looking at Laine's stat line in Columbus, I'd say just taking him off their roster might be a benefit to them. 

    But, what did Tony have in mind? 

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    I want to say NO because we have a chance to add a legit top-4 blueliner with size if Yakemchuck falls and I think he'd be a great shoe-in as a bigger Calen Addison kind of prospect. 

    There's also a good chance he's gone by #13 though.

    I wouldn't mind if they use the #13 to acquire a veteran. A guy in his mid-20s would definitely fit in with the window of the team around Kaprizov. My only question is... who and how? The cap situation is still tight next year. 

    Also, if things work out the way the GM likely hopes, this will be the highest the team is drafting for the next several years. Do we want to pass up a chance to add some young, cheap talent to a future Stanley Cup hopeful over cashing it out to try and win-now when we're already up against the cap ceiling? 

    At worst we should be able to land somebody like Konsta Helenius at #13, and he'd be an ideal piece in our middle-6 a few years down the line who should come with a pretty high floor. 

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    My mind is churning a bit on this. Granted, we have to wait until the ping pong balls settle, but if we are still drafting 13th, I'd like to figure out a way to package this pick and some other assets to go hard after Brady Tkachuk 50% salary retained (at least next season). 

    Tkachuk (either one) is exactly what this team needs, a big, mean scorer who is really hard to play against. Tkachuk makes everyone better, and anyone can tell if someone is not working up to Tkachuk's standards. 

    Tkachuk is designation free this next season and then has an NMC. Rumors are he is not exactly enamored with Ottawa right now. Ottawa has had a change in ownership, coach and GM since he was signed. 

    Plus, Tkachuk is a winner, so this losing has got to be killing him. He would fit in perfect with this locker room, and probably challenge everyone to up their game. Also, at 24, his age fits in perfectly with our window. 

    To get, you have to give. It will cost far more than #13 to get Tkachuk. Rossi will likely be in the deal. Probably some $ will go out, and a quantity of prospects. If money is a thing, I'd be willing to part with Spurgeon in a deal. 

    Tkachuk doesn't solve all of our problems, but he would be a main pillar in solving the effort issue. One more thing, Tkachuk amassed 134 PIMs last season. I suspect it was a really frustrating year. But this is a guy who plays in the gray.

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    7 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    My mind is churning a bit on this. Granted, we have to wait until the ping pong balls settle, but if we are still drafting 13th, I'd like to figure out a way to package this pick and some other assets to go hard after Brady Tkachuk 50% salary retained (at least next season). 

    Tkachuk (either one) is exactly what this team needs, a big, mean scorer who is really hard to play against. Tkachuk makes everyone better, and anyone can tell if someone is not working up to Tkachuk's standards. 

    Tkachuk is designation free this next season and then has an NMC. Rumors are he is not exactly enamored with Ottawa right now. Ottawa has had a change in ownership, coach and GM since he was signed. 

    Plus, Tkachuk is a winner, so this losing has got to be killing him. He would fit in perfect with this locker room, and probably challenge everyone to up their game. Also, at 24, his age fits in perfectly with our window. 

    To get, you have to give. It will cost far more than #13 to get Tkachuk. Rossi will likely be in the deal. Probably some $ will go out, and a quantity of prospects. If money is a thing, I'd be willing to part with Spurgeon in a deal. 

    Tkachuk doesn't solve all of our problems, but he would be a main pillar in solving the effort issue. One more thing, Tkachuk amassed 134 PIMs last season. I suspect it was a really frustrating year. But this is a guy who plays in the gray.

    Sometimes you have to push all the chips into the pot.

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    In no certain order, here are some players we should target or draft.
    A Center with skill and size or a RHD/LHD with skill and size would be fantastic and top of the priority.
    There has been talk about catton dropping because he’s short. I think he’s closer to 5’10. We need big players but Catton is exceptionally talented.
    Hage would be one of my favorite picks. He’s Extremely talented, skilled and fast and he’s rocketed up the rankings recently.
    Yakemchuk would be fantastic but I have a feeling him, Iginla, Catton and probably Eiserman will probably all be taken before it’s our turn.

    Tij Iginla C 6ft 185 lbs
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Tij-Iginla


    Cole eiserman Wing 6ft 196 lbs
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Cole-Eiserman


    Carter Yakemchuk RHD 6’3 190lbs
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Carter-Yakemchuk


    Berkley Catton C
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Berkly-Catton


    Michael Hage 6’1-6’2 C 190lbs
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Michael-Hage


    Adam Jiricek. 6’2 RHD 175lbs
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Adam-Jiricek


    Consta Helenius C/RW 5’11 180lbs
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Konsta-Helenius


    Liam Greentree Rw 6’2 188lbs
    https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/577205/liam-greentree
     

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    On 4/19/2024 at 6:55 PM, Dean said:

    It seems to me , Billy has grown as a gm from this past year.  Hopefully his ideas work and he’s got something up his sleeve 

    Billy has been trying to squeeze this lemon as hard as he can in order to get enough lemonade but there never was or going to be enough. This team does not have what it takes to go far. It’s all smoke and mirrors to try and convince ppl that this is a legitimately competitive team. It just comes off as lying and trying to hide the truth of what this team actually is. That’s how I take it anyways.

    sure we were hampered by injuries but even with everyone health and playing at 100% I just do not see them able to hang with the Aves, Jets, Dallas or any other high caliber team.

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    On 4/23/2024 at 10:09 AM, mnfaninnc said:

    My mind is churning a bit on this. Granted, we have to wait until the ping pong balls settle, but if we are still drafting 13th, I'd like to figure out a way to package this pick and some other assets to go hard after Brady Tkachuk 50% salary retained (at least next season). 

    Tkachuk (either one) is exactly what this team needs, a big, mean scorer who is really hard to play against. Tkachuk makes everyone better, and anyone can tell if someone is not working up to Tkachuk's standards. 

    Tkachuk is designation free this next season and then has an NMC. Rumors are he is not exactly enamored with Ottawa right now. Ottawa has had a change in ownership, coach and GM since he was signed. 

    Plus, Tkachuk is a winner, so this losing has got to be killing him. He would fit in perfect with this locker room, and probably challenge everyone to up their game. Also, at 24, his age fits in perfectly with our window. 

    To get, you have to give. It will cost far more than #13 to get Tkachuk. Rossi will likely be in the deal. Probably some $ will go out, and a quantity of prospects. If money is a thing, I'd be willing to part with Spurgeon in a deal. 

    Tkachuk doesn't solve all of our problems, but he would be a main pillar in solving the effort issue. One more thing, Tkachuk amassed 134 PIMs last season. I suspect it was a really frustrating year. But this is a guy who plays in the gray.

    That rumor about BT was just that, a rumor. I’m pretty sure it started on a small podcast with ppl who claimed to have insider knowledge. There’s just no chance we get him. I would absolutely love it but he’s a really good player and one you absolutely NEED to win in the playoffs. He isn’t going anywhere.

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    1 hour ago, Mateo3xm said:

    That rumor about BT was just that, a rumor. I’m pretty sure it started on a small podcast with ppl who claimed to have insider knowledge. There’s just no chance we get him. I would absolutely love it but he’s a really good player and one you absolutely NEED to win in the playoffs. He isn’t going anywhere.

    Brady Tkachuk made some public comments about losing. People have been reading into it. 

    He got things going at the end of the last Wild game with Ottawa. MN definitely don't have guys like that. They're asking guys to have more effyoo in their game, but it's half little Euros and elite Swedes. No offense cause they're some good hockey players but it ain't Chris Pronger, Claude Lemieux, Tom Wilson, Owen Nolan, Big Buff kind of guys. Therefore, it's not looking good for the Wild's overall construction. Nobody worries to face NoJo or Rossi, I hate to say. The Wild have Foligno but otherwise Greenway is gone, there's no Marchment, Tkachuk, or a player that gets under the skin by stirring the pot physically or mentally but also chips in some scoring. The guys I mentioned are all ones who didn't just pot a goal here and there like Moose. The Wild need some real grit more than telling players like Merrill or Rossi or NoJo to go blast Jamie Benn or give JT Miller a chop on the back of the legs. 

    The Wild don't have the makeup of a playoff winning team at the moment. 

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    On 4/24/2024 at 2:29 PM, Mateo3xm said:

    That rumor about BT was just that, a rumor. I’m pretty sure it started on a small podcast with ppl who claimed to have insider knowledge. There’s just no chance we get him. I would absolutely love it but he’s a really good player and one you absolutely NEED to win in the playoffs. He isn’t going anywhere.

    His brother became disgruntled with Calgary and it was rumored that he wasn't resigning long term. I could see the same thing happening with Brady, especially getting out of Canada. Florida had to give up a lot for Matthew, but look at them now, he has transformed their team.

    I think even if it is a sliver of hope, you just keep banging on the door. Maybe you find their GM woke up on the wrong side of the bed and is just fed up with the player? 

    Also, as I said in another thread, Cayden Lindstrom has been compared to these brothers in intensity. That might be the one to target moving up in the draft. Even if you don't get there, perhaps after the draft you trade for him.

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    The free agent pool is good. Don't trade anything unless it's bringing back an important player that fits long term. 

    Anybody notice Dumba getting burned left and right in the playoffs? Ouch. MN needs to be thankful that's in the past. 

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