By Luke Sims -
The Minnesota Wild’s top line has been dynamite this season. Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Kirill Kaprizov have carried Minnesota’s offense. But what happens when that line is not scoring or can’t score enough?
Minnesota often falls flat and drops in the standings.
The Wild will narrowly miss the playoffs this season after making it with a similar roster last year.
According to MoneyPuck.com, Minnesota’s top line has the ninth-most goals scored in the league. The Wild have no other line without one of the big three in the top 100 in league scoring. Almost all of the team’s production has come from these three guys.
Kaprizov always drives winning, no matter who’s on his line. He also excelled when skating with rookie Marco Rossi and his old buddy Mats Zuccarello.
Boldy and Eriksson Ek have set career highs in points, with Eriksson Ek netting 30 goals for the first time in his career. Kaprizov is on pace for another 100-point season. Minnesota’s big three are delivering, but the team struggles to get great production from the bottom of the lineup.
The Wild still need to produce more even-strength scoring. Last year, the team was 25th in the league in goals per game at 2.46. That’s not a knock on Minnesota’s second-line players like Rossi, Zuccarello, and Ryan Hartman. These guys have largely done what was expected of them, if not more.
Zuccarello spent time away from Kaprizov and still produced. Over half of his production came with Kaprizov on the power play. Still, teams will never say no to a 62-point season from a 36-year-old winger.
Rossi has finally found playing time and thrived in a second and third-line scoring role. He was seventh on the team in points and scored 20 goals at age 22.
Hartman has bounced around the lineup but put together another solid season as a 200-foot middle-six forward. The former first-round pick scored 20 goals and 40 points, even though he didn’t always have talented linemates and missed eight games due to injury and suspension. There’s not much more the Wild could ask from Hartman.
The Wild also got scoring from their sensational rookie defenseman Brock Faber, who scored 50 points as a rookie. His offensive numbers are a jolt to a defensive core that is otherwise more defensively inclined.
No other defenseman on the team scored more than 30 points. Jonas Brodin came closest with 27. However, Jared Spurgeon would have easily scored more than 30 points if he had played an 82-game season. Losing Spurgeon on the back end hurts Minnesota on both ends of the ice.
Injuries up and down the lineup were also a huge inhibitor of those low-depth scoring numbers. Only Rossi and Faber suited up for all 82 games.
The Wild shut Marcus Foligno down due to injury, and he only played in 55 games. Foligno is not necessarily known for his offense, but he was only on pace for 32 points. Minnesota needs more out of its boisterous leader.
However, many of Minnesota’s healthy veterans didn’t show up. The Wild got frustratingly little from Freddy Gaudreau and Marcus Johansson. Still, they gave Gaudreau and Johansson scoring roles, with Johansson being in the top six almost all year.
Jojo only recorded 30 points while looking like he’s taking most nights off. Gaudreau has been injured but also largely ineffective. He scored 44 and 38 points in back-to-back seasons and suddenly dropped to a 15-point season. That’s unacceptable production for a guy the Wild relied on to be a secondary scorer.
Successful teams like the Dallas Stars have eight forwards who scored over 40 points and two defensemen who recorded over 45 points. That’s 10 players with over 40 points on the team.
Conversely, the Wild have six forwards over 40 points and only one defenseman over 40. The Stars have another line of capable scorers who provide Dallas with 33% more offense than the Wild. The Stars tuck 2.9 goals per game, good for fifth in the league. That’s roughly 30% more than the 2.46 goals per game output that the Wild produce.
Minnesota’s fourth line doesn’t necessarily need to be a point-producing machine, but the Wild get nearly nothing compared to other successful teams. The Stars get 20-point Craig Smith and 24-point Sam Steel as solid contributors on the fourth line. The Wild had a carousel on the fourth line. However, two staples for the Wild’s fourth line, Connor Dewar and Brandon Duhaime, had a combined 20 points.
Getting young players like Liam Ohgren and Marat Khusnutdinov consistent playing time next season could drastically improve the Wild’s lack of goal-scoring. Rossi projects only to improve and drive up his point totals as he grows. If the Wild give Johansson’s playing time to Ohgren and Gaudreau’s playing time to Khusnutdinov, they can bank on the young player's trajectory.
A Wild lineup that would look like:
- Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Kaprizov
- Zuccarello - Rossi - Ohgren
- Foligno - Khusnutdinov - Riley Heidt?
- Mason Shaw - Ryan Hartman - Gaudreau
The sooner the Wild can move Johansson, the better. In all reality, Johansson probably takes that third-line spot that the rookie Hedit would take if Johansson was gone. But this lineup gives the Wild two legit scoring lines with the potential of an effective 200-foot third line that, if Heidt gets to be a part of it, could score some goals.
Hartman is probably not a fourth-line forward, either. That fourth line will not blow anybody away, but Mason Shaw has been effective. If Gaudreau can find his scoring touch again, they’d form a pair that could easily hit 20 points with Hartman centering them.
The Wild need to start holding their veterans accountable, get healthy, and lean on their young players’ offensive potential. Johansson and Gaudreau’s play is unacceptable. If the Wild are serious about scoring more, let the kids with scoring potential play. That includes leaving Rossi and Ohgren in top-six roles with more opportunities to put their names on the scoresheet.
The Wild can no longer rely on the top line to carry all of the team's offense. Kaprizov and Boldy are great, but contending teams get goals from more than their top players. If the Wild want to be where teams like Dallas are now, they must let their secondary scoring develop.
All stats and data via Evolving Hockey, HockeyDB, MoneyPuck.com, and Capfridnly unless otherwise noted.
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