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  • How Will Preseason Deployment Affect the Opening-Night Lineup?


    Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn - USA TODAY Sports
    Luke Sims

    It’s hard to perfectly read into anything in the preseason. Teams have young players looking to make a mark and veterans looking for a tune-up. The outcomes and the records of NHL preseason games are more or less irrelevant. Still a team’s deployment of players and the lines.

    Who knows if Dean Evason had all 60 members of training camp come out only to Herb-Brooks-it and decide the lineup after a couple of laps around the rink? I’d be willing to bet that’s not completely the case, but Evason has had some idea of what he wants the lineup to look like. So far this preseason, we’ve seen a lot of off-season speculation turn into on-ice moments.

    There are a few things that we can look at in the preseason and be like, Yeah, that’s probably what it’s going to look like on opening night. The hour grows nigh until the rubber hits the ice and the Wild suit up against the Florida Panthers on October 12th at the X.

    Let’s check out what we’ve seen so far that we can assume Dean is dialing up for Game 1. 

    Forwards - Top-6

    We’ve seen the Kirill Kaprizov line with Mats Zuccarello and center Ryan Hartman against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday. Ryan Hartman, Ol’ reliable, seems to be in line to start once again for the Wild. We saw this play out last season. But after a disappointing start to the season, the Wild demoted Hartman off that line. The revolving door of centers between 97 and 36 eventually ended with Hartman going back between them and staying there to end the season. 

    While it may make sense from an outside perspective to have Marco Rossi play between Kapriozv and Zuccy, Evason and management may think otherwise, and only time will tell if a change is afoot now or in the future. But for Night 1, it seems like Hartman will take his place between 36 and 97 once again.

    The Wild crafted a Matt Boldy-Joel Eriksson Ek-Marcus Johansson line for the Dallas Stars game. As long as Johansson is healthy, he will more than likely suit up as the Wild’s second line this season. This group showed a lot of chemistry at the end of last season. 

    Management really likes Johansson. While chances are slim of him repeating his success with the Wild (0.9 Points/Game) from last year, he’s still a solid player. Boldy has a chance to be the Wild’s leading scorer and enter true superstar territory this year. Eriksson Ek will help Boldy do that. Eriksson Ek is as reliable as ever, and his offensive game has been coming along nicely over the years. This line is ready to deliver in all situations for the Wild. 

    Forwards - Bottom-6 

    We can get some insight into the bottom six in the preseason. Adam Beckman was not skating in the Top-6. Beckman was skating with Jake Lucchini and newcomer Jujhar Khaira. At this point, none of these players look like they will be making the roster. In terms of roster hopefuls, though, the Wild had Rossi paired up with Marcus Foligno and new No. 20, Patrick Maroon. 

    It’s unlikely that those three are skating on the same line on opening night. Rossi was practicing with Foligno and Freddy Gaudreau. If the Wild pair Maroon and Foligno, that means either Rossi or Gaudreau are on the fourth line. I doubt they want that. 

    As for guys who have been rocking fourth-line duties, the Wild had Brandon Duhaime and Connor Dewar paired on the penalty kill and at even strength during the first preseason game in Colorado. That duo looks to be tied at the hip once again this season. Dewar and Duhaime were key to the penalty kill last year and they will have to be once again this season. 

    Defense

    The rumored Jonas Brodin-Brock Faber pair has suited up for multiple games, they’re a lock. Jared Spurgeon and Jake Middleton are almost guaranteed for opening night. The only question is who plays among the three of Calen Addison, Jon Merrill, and Alex Goligoski. They’ve all gotten work throughout the preseason. Addison has worked on the power play unit during practice and in games. 

    Goalies

    Prized prospect Jesper Wallstedt got the start in the opening contest, and Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson split time in the next game. Minnesota’s plan is for Gustavsson and Fleury to also split time in the next games. One can only assume Gus would get the nod to start the opening night but who knows what Dean is plotting? Remember what happened to open the season last year? We don’t want a repeat of Fleury’s early-season shenanigans in the net again.

    The Prediction

    From the intel gathered at practice and in games, the things we are hearing from coaches and management, and the deployment of players so far, this is my best guess for how the Wild’s opening night lineup will look:

    Forwards

    Line 1: Kaprizov - Hartman - Zuccarello

    Line 2: Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Johansson

    Line 3: Foligno - Rossi - Gaudreau 

    Line 4: Duhaime - Dewar - Maroon

    Defense

    Pair 1: Spurgeon - Middleton

    Pair 2: Faber - Brodin

    Pair 3: Addison - Merrill 

    Scratched: Goligoski, Khaira

    Goaltenders

    Tendys: Gustavsson - Fleury

    Khaira has had a good camp, scored some goals, and played well in the preseason. Still, I don’t think he’s done enough to uproot one of the established guys. Same thing with Sammy Walker. The former Gopher has done enough to prove he belongs but not enough to find a spot in the lineup. Walker has three points in just a single tilt, but Tyson Jost also had six points in three games last preseason. So do with that what you will. 

    While this preseason may have just reinforced what fans and pundits theorized all offseason, at least we have concrete evidence to back up these claims. While the stats and events don’t really matter, the sneak peek at the line combination and defensive pairs gives us a nice look at what we could see on opening night. 

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    Luke it's hard to argue with what you have on paper. I always think back to last year as set too and then Kulikov got sent packing. I have BG's words echoing in my head, "If we can make the team better and we can make the move, we're gonna try to do it".

    I enter this year with mixed feelings, but don't ever want to deny KK his opportunity to make an impact and change the direction. You watch the intensity of his game and will to win, he just needs a few pieces to fall into place.

    On the flip side, I'm looking to establish the future of our team, so talk of  resigning players, status quo with the line up has me thinking were in the same boat as last year, good, but not good enough, so I temper any excitement or feelings at this point. I hate to say well, let's wait until next year, but we need a lottery moment to change things.

    I do know one thing, I'm going to enjoy the chit out of the IA Wild season in addition to watching Faber and hopefully Rossi this year either way!

    Edited by vonlonster67
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    25 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    I do know one thing, I'm going to enjoy the chit out of the IA Wild season in addition to watching Faber and hopefully Rossi this year either way!

    It would be fairly surprising if the Iowa Wild don't have a great season. The Des Moines area fans should be able to enjoy some really good hockey!

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    Just now, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It would be fairly surprising if the Iowa Wild don't have a great season. The Des Moines area fans should be able to enjoy some really good hockey!

    I plan on taking in one game live, but may do more....its not going to be just this year, but next year too!

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    1 minute ago, vonlonster67 said:

    its not going to be just this year, but next year too!

    They'll have even more talent next year in the skaters, I imagine, but likely to lose a major talent from their goalie stable. Yes, still should be fun to watch.

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    49 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    They'll have even more talent next year in the skaters, I imagine, but likely to lose a major talent from their goalie stable. Yes, still should be fun to watch.

    Perhaps Jones will have figured it out?

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    58 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It would be fairly surprising if the Iowa Wild don't have a great season. The Des Moines area fans should be able to enjoy some really good hockey!

    Super stoked for this season! I live in NW MO but Des Moines isn't too far. Plan on going to 5-6 games this season, only went to 2 last year because we had a newborn. The Wallstedt bobblehead giveaway is circled on my calendar, going to have to get in line EARLY for that one.

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    This is pretty much what we all thought would happen. It didn't take a genius to figure it out. 

    It seemed like these lineups were penned in before any competition began. If I were a prospect, this would be disheartening since there really was no room for me regardless of what I showed. 

    Then, on top of it, Zuccarello gets resigned which is another road block. Yurov and Khus%^&* are coming next year and probably taking slots. I'd be thinking "what do I need to do?" How does Walker take this? He had a fantastic showcase and has had a real good preseason. I'd say he's earned a look but nobody but the coaches know what he's done in practice. 

    Does this make them hungrier, or hope for a trade? 

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    Here are the few things. 1. With the signing Wild did today and with strong desire to sign Hartman for the next 2-3 years Wild will have 8 players who are suited to play on the first three lines. 2. We have to admit that the only chance to win Stanley Cup is with Kaprisov on the team. 3. By end of the 2-3 years Kaprisov will 29. And now here is the question: with these 8 players taken the first 3 lines does Wild have any chance to be real contender. These are the same 3 lines that played last playoff and we know the result. To me the answer is: no way. So to me this is the continuation “Billy G” strategy- let’s have veterans and very average team and find the excuses of not getting better. And this lead to me with the last question: if Kaprisov see this the same way would he want to stay with Wild after couple of seasons. If not we are done 

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    7 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

    Here are the few things. 1. With the signing Wild did today and with strong desire to sign Hartman for the next 2-3 years Wild will have 8 players who are suited to play on the first three lines. 2. We have to admit that the only chance to win Stanley Cup is with Kaprisov on the team. 3. By end of the 2-3 years Kaprisov will 29. And now here is the question: with these 8 players taken the first 3 lines does Wild have any chance to be real contender. These are the same 3 lines that played last playoff and we know the result. To me the answer is: no way. So to me this is the continuation “Billy G” strategy- let’s have veterans and very average team and find the excuses of not getting better. And this lead to me with the last question: if Kaprisov see this the same way would he want to stay with Wild after couple of seasons. If not we are done 

    Good points, valid concerns from an outside perspective. I would mostly agree. The thing I think we miss about the big picture is the personal side, the chemistry in the organization, the inner culture, and the potential for trades.

    I'll explain. We don't get to see the inner-workings or meetings. We don't hear the calls between GMs. We don't know the players and their relationships too well. We're not tuned into the team synergy. Overall, the Wild on paper haven't added a Patrick Kane for 1M/year, we get Khaira. The Wild don't have Bedard joining the team, we're hoping Rossi can make it.(I'm thinking Walker could be just as well.)

    My point is, the Wild are getting better by making small gains and maintaining flexibility while at the same time keeping a solid playoff roster intact. Look at what GMBG has shown us. He appreciates veteran experience. He gives out fair/good contracts that are not huge risks to guys who've earned it.(mostly tradable contracts.) He also makes moves before the deadline to improve the roster before the playoffs in his own way. Unlike XGMCF, Guerin's additions have worked well.

    Take all this as a whole and I come to the conclusion Guerin and his group does their due diligence and are on a path that makes small gains and improve through the sum of parts. This is out of necessity until the penalties drop off.(Guerin's plan all along.) In that time, it's possible the Wild's prospects arrive. Kaprizov is the top guy with Grizzle and a Norwegian Hobbit in his company but that isn't gonna be enough by itself, especially in the playoffs. In the end of my argument here, I agree with the points you're making on paper from our view. Guerin must feel safe though, with the potential and options as they see it. The Wild out-performed expectations the last two years with players like Goligoski, or Greenway on the team despite our gripes. Guerin and the Wild haven't had the best playoffs but they've made it and had a chance each time to win a series, against Vegas being nearest to a round one win. My money is on this year being the same. Solid season, tweaks, playoffs, and hopefully a healthy team can get over the first round hump. After seeing Florida go the distance last year, I don't think the Wild can be ruled out before any games have been played. Sure, getting another big-time guy on the roster would be great but I think they're looking within til the cap penalties are done and the prospect cream rises to the top. Guerin is doing a good job and certainly hasn't screwed up the overall picture by keeping Moose and Zuccarello.

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    19 hours ago, Protec said:

    Guerin is doing a good job and certainly hasn't screwed up the overall picture by keeping Moose and Zuccarello.

    I think the Foligno signing was a pretty bad signing but the Zuccarello signing wasn’t bad.

    Florida has far more talent, we don’t have a Barkov, Tkachuk, Montour, Ekblad, Verhaeghe etc.

    They got these players by having some really bad years, but look at them now.

    This team is beginning to creep up in age and the gap between the veterans and the prospects/new players seems to be a few years or more till then really hit their peak.

    Statistically most Nhl players hit their highest points total between 24-26 years old.

    “On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp.”

    Zuccarello 36

    Spurgeon 33

    Folingo 32

    Johansson 32

    Gaudreau 30

    I think it’s fair to say that most of our up and coming prospects are at least 3-4 years away before they really start producing. Now add 3-4 years on to the players age I listed above.

    Its a little concerning 

    Yes we will have more cap but if they keep extending player like Foligno, our prospects are never going to get the experience they need. 

    I just don’t see Kap wanting to play with a bunch of geriatrics or a bunch of new players who haven’t quite ironed out their game.

     

     

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    That's fair but it's safe to say the Wild will have some balance. Not all old guys. A couple players who are exceptional. Solid defense and goaltending despite cap penalties.

    I think the Florida example was meant to be more of a "just make the playoffs" point. Sure Ekblad and Barkov are top class guys but teams like Boston or Toronto had the big names and dominant seasons without going deep last season. It will be interesting to see how the next two years go because if Foligno really slows down, he'll become a Reaves or Lucic type guy who isn't counted on for goal scoring. At 4M you'd be right to say that's too much on paper but the organization values the guy so the cost VS. return in a couple years when the penalties are over with won't be a huge problem. Just a couple million off the total available money that will be offset to a degree by entry-level guys.

    At least that's what it looks like the GM and Owner are thinking when they make the Foligno offer. So it's a nice contract for Foligno and a way to set a precedent within the organization. Play well, be gritty, commit to the organization and do what they ask, you will be rewarded. More of a family vibe than mercenary group as Vegas has been described at times. I think a lot of us had the same inital reaction to 4x4M but I'm alright with both deals and players sticking around.

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