By Tony Abbott -
You can't take October away from the Minnesota Wild. John Hynes emphasized the need for a fast start for his team after coming onto the job mid-season once the Wild stumbled to a 5-10-4 record.
As Banner from "Arrested Development" once infamously read...
Nine games into the season, the Wild have a 6-1-2 record. They have as many points in the standings (14) as they had through 19 games under Dean Evason last year. Those points are in the bank, and if we're using the playoff cutoff from last year (98), Minnesota is already 14% of the way to the playoffs with about 90% of the season to go.
But this is a sports team in Minnesota; it's the land of 10,000 Shoes To Drop. If you're a pessimist, there's no shortage of red flags for this Wild team.
It might surprise you that the Wild's opponents are outshooting them at 5-on-5 this season (200 to 201). In terms of overall shot attempts, Minnesota's also well below 50% (392 to 445) and is only barely on top in terms of expected goals (16.0 to 14.5).
You can get out-shot, out-attempted, and even out-chanced and still make the playoffs. The Washington Capitals did it last year, and their numbers were worse than Minnesota's. But it's tough. You need killer special teams, some mojo that doesn't run out in the regular season, or, preferably, both. And even then, your luck tends to run out come playoff time.
The Wild have both things on their side right now. They've got a top-10 power play, the fifth-highest shooting percentage at 5-on-5 (11.5%), and the fourth-highest save percentage (93.5%). That works out to a PDO (shooting plus save percentages) of 105.0, the third-highest in the NHL. Teams at the extreme ends of the PDO spectrum tend to regress to the league average of 100.
So what happens when things start to break the other way?
The Wild might have the classic red flags of a team that will regress, but there's reason to think it might not be so bad. As always, we're dealing with some small sample sizes that produce weird results in the early part of the season.
In this case, events have conspired to make Minnesota's underlying numbers look worse.
Remember, the Wild went their first six games without trailing. They've trailed for only 45 minutes and 50 seconds this season, the lowest amount in the league. Only the Vegas Golden Knights have spent more time in the lead.
This is where score effects come in. Teams in the lead tend to hang back and settle for defending, while the trailing team pushes to create more offense. Over a full season, when most teams spend about 1000 minutes or more leading and trailing, these effects tend to make only a minor impact. But when we're talking, say... nine games, for example... these score effects can skew things significantly.
We're seeing that with the Wild right now. Let's take a look at what the Wild's 5-on-5 possession numbers are before and after adjusting for score effects, which Evolving-Hockey helpfully does:
Corsi For Percentage:
Unadjusted: 46.8% (25th in NHL)
Adjusted: 50.2% (21st)
Shots For Percentage:
Unadjusted: 49.9% (18th)
Adjusted: 52.6% (9th)
Expected Goals Percentage:
Unadjusted: 50.8% (13th)
Adjusted: 53.1 (9th)
Once those score effects are accounted for, Minnesota looks much more solid. The Wild pop over 50.2% at controlling shot attempts. However, they have built a reputation for dominating shot quality for over a decade. Once we account for score effects, they're doing it again, and that's very good news for the State of Hockey.
Last season, nine of the top-10 teams in (score-adjusted) Expected Goals Percentage at 5-on-5 made the playoffs. Over the last 10 full 82-game seasons, 85 of the 100 teams in the top-10 of Expected Goals Percentage made the playoffs.
Better yet, they've done it while missing six games from Jared Spurgeon, their best 5-on-5 player last year (57.8% xGF%). Having Spurgeon back and healthy raises the ceiling for their season.
These reasons and the points the Wild have already banked are why Evolving-Hockey projects them to have a 79.9% chance of making the playoffs. There will be times when the shooting goes cold, the goaltending gets a bit leaky, and the power play slumps. Still, Minnesota (when healthy) has enough going for it to believe that it will make the playoffs.
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