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  • How Much Should We Read Into Minnesota's Fast Start?


    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgarn-Imagn Images
    Aaron Heckmann

    The Minnesota Wild are off to one of their best starts in franchise history with an 8-2-2 record and .750 points percentage through the first 12 games of the season.

    Entering Tuesday night’s 5-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings, the Wild had collected 18 of a possible 22 points in their first 11 games. That matched the best start in franchise history; they had 18 points in its first 11 games in 2002 and 2006. However, Minnesota also set a franchise record with 41 goals in its first 11 contests.

    The Wild caught the league’s attention and put themselves in the headlines throughout the first couple weeks of the season by not facing their first deficit until October 24. 

    In case you missed it, the Wild didn’t trail in their first 391 minutes and 31 seconds of regulation time this season. It was the second-longest streak to open a season in NHL history behind the Boston Bruins’ 457:21 in 1969-70. It wasn’t until Nikita Kucherov gave the Tampa Bay Lightning a 2-1 lead in the second period in the Wild’s seventh game.

    That's an incredible feat, and the Wild hope it will indicate their growth since last season and their depth this season. They hope to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason in 2023-24 for only the second time since 2011-12.

    Minnesota is in second place in what will be a highly competitive Central Division and fifth league-wide. While the season is still young, the Wild look like they have the pieces to make a run — yes, past the first round — this season.

    The Wild look like a team ready to reach new heights in their first full season under John Hynes. Let’s be honest: They haven't had a perfect start, and the team has plenty to work on. Still, this year’s squad has a different complexion. That's evident as they look more structured and in sync this season.

    Minnesota looks better built and appears poised to make some things happen. The pressure is on, as it can’t be overstated how important this season is, namely because the Wild are eligible to extend their superstar winger Kirill Kaprizov to an extension as soon as July.

    Through 12 games, the Wild have faced a deficit for a league-low 79 minutes and 5 seconds. That's 26 minutes and 34 seconds fewer than the Carolina Hurricanes, with the second-fewest trailing minutes at 105:39. 

    That indicates how well the Wild have performed this season. The most promising part of their quick start is how they have gotten to this point.

    Minnesota's impeccable defensive play is the highlight of its season. The Wild lead the NHL in fewest goals against (1.61) and high-danger chances against (8.63). They are second in expected goals against (2.07), fifth in shots against (26.09), and sixth in scoring chances against (24.08) at five-on-five on a per 60-minute basis.

    Brock Faber, Jonas Brodin, and Jake Middleton have given the Wild superior play on the back end. Their captain, Jared Spurgeon, has also been back in the lineup the past four games after a four-game absence.

    Kirill Kaprizov has unsurprisingly taken the spotlight up front with an incredible start. He has scored seven goals and 21 points through 12 games — a 143-point pace over a full 82-game season. Meanwhile, his top-line counterparts, Mats Zuccarello (5-6-11) and Marco Rossi (3-7-10), have been strong in their own right.

    Matt Boldy got off to a slow start last fall. However, he has six goals and 13 points, which included a slick overtime winner against the Toronto Maple Leafs last Sunday. Joel Eriksson Ek (5-2-7 in 10 games), Freddy Gaudreau (2-4-6 in 12 games), and Ryan Hartman (3-1-4 in 7 games) are also off to good starts.

    The Wild look like a deeper squad, and that’s especially true with the offseason trade addition of hard-nosed forward Jakub Lauko and then free agent acquisition Yakov Trenin.

    Moreover, the goaltending situation no longer looks worrisome. Filip Gustavsson has been a quality starter, going 6-2-1 with a .917 save percentage and 3.2 goals saved above expected through his first nine starts. Backup Marc-Andre Fleury looks just fine.

    Top players performing. More depth. Superior defense. Good goaltending.

    A lot is clicking for the Wild right now. Still, they have a lot of room for improvement as their penalty kill ranks 31st in the league at 62.5 percent, and their power play is 1-for-18 over the past five games. There’s no question their special teams have to improve if they are going to compete with the other heavyweights in the Central.

    But unlike the 2023-24 campaign when adversity got the best of them, the Wild appear better equipped to handle the challenges that come their direction this season.

    The season is still young, but the early results and indications look favorable for the Wild. They look like a team ready to take the next step and prove to Kaprizov that they can build a Stanley Cup-caliber team in the state of hockey.

    All stats via Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.

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    Not everything is rosy with the club. There are still mistakes being made. But, I would say the biggest difference has been the structure and Hynes implementing his system. 

    One reason for optimism, though would be strength of competition. It isn't always who you played, but when you played them. At the time, CBJ was doing quite well, but have since fallen off the wagon. Taking 8 points from the top 3 teams in the Atlantic is pretty good. Winning against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh has been a hard thing to do recently, and Philly is always tough for us.

    Why do I mention those things? Because the Wild showed up against teams that were mainly = or > than the Wild on paper. Banking those points was important! Our next 3 games are against bottom dwelling teams in the West. This needs to be where we take care of business and come away with a nice little winning streak. Really, under the Shooter era, this team has been pretty good in getting Ws against the teams they should beat. 

    What is coming? And we have to put Ohgren on that list: Ohgren, Yurov, The Wall, Buium, and Lambos. Lambos isn't putting up the points yet, but his defense looks better from the +/- sheet. Speaking of Lambos, he got in his 1st fight of the season. 

    I mentioned that Ohgren is a slow starter and we needed to be prepared for that. He sure looked like he started slow this season too. Perhaps waking up Des Moines will shake him up a little to start playing. It is good to know that he finishes strong, and maybe a callup around February will help.

    I think Kaprizov sees these guys coming and is a bit excited about it. He knows they won't be stars right away, but this is an attractive pipeline starting to bring players out. 

    We still need that Johansson replacement. While my eye test sees Johansson putting in much more effort, finishing some checks, shooting more frequently and getting into shooting position more frequently, we still need a sniper on that line to load up Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov. I've liked the way Rossi has played on that line, but the above line has the potential to be so dominant. Could an Ek-Zuccarello duo anchor a 2nd line? It would need a sniper if we went Boldy-Rossi-Kaprizov. Using a Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov line also keeps a PP unit pretty much together. It helps to not get lines jumbled up the next couple of shifts.

    So, how much should we read into the fast start? I think more than just a fast start, the quality of the wins has been very good. Upcoming are Sharks/Ducks/Blackhawks/Canadiens. One would have to think that this 4 game spot should help us bank 8 points. At this point in the schedule, it's still about finishing up November banking points. It would be nice to start December in 2nd place in the Norris, I mean Central division. 

    Just like in a game, in a season it is much better to be the chased than the chaser. Last season we ran out of gas deep into games (3rd period) chasing teams and shortening benches because we needed the points. You can go through stretches of rolling all 4 lines because of a standings cushion because it's better longterm. I think we should read quite a lot into the fast start, it's not just the results, but the process appears to be far better. Now, let's work on getting the '78s into more games!

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    27 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    The main thing for me is not letting losses become losing streaks or win one/lose one splits.

    Young teams have a tendency to fluctuate like this, but all teams go through .500 streaks, especially during flu season. This is probably the main reason why Shooter won't flood the team with rookies. 

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Not everything is rosy with the club. There are still mistakes being made. But, I would say the biggest difference has been the structure and Hynes implementing his system. 

    One reason for optimism, though would be strength of competition. It isn't always who you played, but when you played them. At the time, CBJ was doing quite well, but have since fallen off the wagon. Taking 8 points from the top 3 teams in the Atlantic is pretty good. Winning against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh has been a hard thing to do recently, and Philly is always tough for us.

    Why do I mention those things? Because the Wild showed up against teams that were mainly = or > than the Wild on paper. Banking those points was important! Our next 3 games are against bottom dwelling teams in the West. This needs to be where we take care of business and come away with a nice little winning streak. Really, under the Shooter era, this team has been pretty good in getting Ws against the teams they should beat. 

    What is coming? And we have to put Ohgren on that list: Ohgren, Yurov, The Wall, Buium, and Lambos. Lambos isn't putting up the points yet, but his defense looks better from the +/- sheet. Speaking of Lambos, he got in his 1st fight of the season. 

    I mentioned that Ohgren is a slow starter and we needed to be prepared for that. He sure looked like he started slow this season too. Perhaps waking up Des Moines will shake him up a little to start playing. It is good to know that he finishes strong, and maybe a callup around February will help.

    I think Kaprizov sees these guys coming and is a bit excited about it. He knows they won't be stars right away, but this is an attractive pipeline starting to bring players out. 

    We still need that Johansson replacement. While my eye test sees Johansson putting in much more effort, finishing some checks, shooting more frequently and getting into shooting position more frequently, we still need a sniper on that line to load up Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov. I've liked the way Rossi has played on that line, but the above line has the potential to be so dominant. Could an Ek-Zuccarello duo anchor a 2nd line? It would need a sniper if we went Boldy-Rossi-Kaprizov. Using a Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov line also keeps a PP unit pretty much together. It helps to not get lines jumbled up the next couple of shifts.

    So, how much should we read into the fast start? I think more than just a fast start, the quality of the wins has been very good. Upcoming are Sharks/Ducks/Blackhawks/Canadiens. One would have to think that this 4 game spot should help us bank 8 points. At this point in the schedule, it's still about finishing up November banking points. It would be nice to start December in 2nd place in the Norris, I mean Central division. 

    Just like in a game, in a season it is much better to be the chased than the chaser. Last season we ran out of gas deep into games (3rd period) chasing teams and shortening benches because we needed the points. You can go through stretches of rolling all 4 lines because of a standings cushion because it's better longterm. I think we should read quite a lot into the fast start, it's not just the results, but the process appears to be far better. Now, let's work on getting the '78s into more games!

    Right now the schedule is fairly even to light as far as number of games in short order. Banking points now will be of great value when the team gets into March and has to pay the piper for the league's stupid scheduling.

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