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  • How Does Ryan Hartman Fit In Next Year?


    Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    Pop quiz, hotshot: What position did the Minnesota Wild's two best 5-on-5 point producers play?

    Taking out the small sample sizes of trade deadline acquisitions in Marcus Johansson and Oskar Sundqvist, the answer is: Center. Yes, really. Center. The only full-season players to get more than 2.00 points per hour at 5-on-5 were Joel Eriksson Ek (2.08) and Ryan Hartman (2.04). 

    Granted, being the best scorers on a Wild team that would make even Jacques Lemaire and Mike Yeo say, Guys, we need more offense, isn't that impressive. But it's not nothing. Among 382 forwards with 500-plus 5-on-5 minutes, it's enough to sneak Eriksson Ek and Hartman into the top 100. You can find other big-time centers in that range, like John Tavares (2.09), Logan Couture (2.07), Nazem Kadri (2.05), and Robert Thomas (2.05).

    We all know how good Eriksson Ek is, and his point totals this season finally are starting to reflect that. It's not surprising that he's one of the most productive players on the team. But Hartman's spot near the top should highlight that he was once again a capable pivot for Minnesota despite a step back from his 34 goals and 65 points in 2021-22.

    The converted winger missed 22 games to injury, and another one to a benching after taking too many penalties, which drives down his counting stats. 15 goals and 37 points look like a massive step backward. That's true, but stretching that production from 59 games to an 82-game pace would look quite a bit better. We'd be talking about a 21-goal, 51-point stat line, which would rank fifth in Minnesota and only represent a 22% drop in points.

    All this kind of makes you wonder: Is the fanbase too down on Hartman? Isn't he part of the solution next year?

    It was easy to be skeptical of Hartman last year, when the third-line winger caught on with Kirill Kaprizov and instantly transformed into a 30-goal scorer. Hartman brought good things to the table, but it looked like he was a product of Kaprizov's superstardom spreading the wealth.

    That's going to be true to an extent with any player alongside a superstar. After all, great players make everyone better. But it's a lot harder to suggest that Hartman was a product of Kaprizov this past season.

    In 2021-22, Hartman spent 71.2% of his 5-on-5 minutes with Kaprizov, and those minutes saw 59 of the 76 (77.6%) on-ice goals Hartman had that year. Furthermore, Kaprizov registered a point on 33 of Hartman's 55 regular-season points, or just over 50%.

    But Hartman spent significantly less time with Kaprizov last year, just 35.1% of his 5-on-5 minutes. Kaprizov was only on the ice for 13 of Hartman's 35 5-on-5 goals (37.1%) and registered a point on only six of Hartman's 37 points (16.2%). 

    It's true that Hartman struggled in the first half and didn't take off until Dean Evason put him back on the top line on February 19. In the 26 games after that, he scored nine goals and 21 points, but it's significant to note that just 10 of those games came before Kaprizov's injury. In fact, Hartman's production slightly increased after the superstar went down.

    Despite that, Hartman enters the summer with an uncertain future with Minnesota. His $1.7 million salary is a bargain for the Wild, given his role as the team's de facto No. 1 Center. But he's one of few trade chips Minnesota can freely expend this summer, and it's possible his cap hit could help Bill Guerin nab a strong return.

    If Minnesota keeps Hartman until next season, they'd almost certainly lose him for nothing. In signing his three-year deal right before a career year, he also left quite a bit of money on the table and will likely price himself out of the cap-strapped Wild's range next year.

    So what do you do here if you're the Wild? It's a weird spot for them to be in, because Hartman's clearly not just a placeholder in that spot like Victor Rask was. Rask could never clear half a point per game, even with Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Hartman's not just done that, but quite a bit more. He's produced at a 60-point 82-game pace at center over the past two years, and he was only really along for the ride with Kaprizov for about half of those minutes.

    At the same time, it kind of feels as if Hartman's centering Kaprizov for most of next season, that's a failure on Minnesota's part. It might be unfair to Hartman, and it probably is, but we all just kind of know that Kaprizov could use a "real" top six-caliber center alongside him. With Eriksson Ek showing chemistry with Matt Boldy, that center spot between Kaprizov is the only place for Marco Rossi to snag a real scoring role. If that doesn't happen, and Hartman is still in that spot, it's a big step back for the organization.

    Can Hartman thrive as an overqualified third-line center? The interesting thing is that we have precedent for this working. It's sort of what got Hartman the promotion last year, when he succeeded alongside depth players like Marcus Foligno, Brandon Duhaime, and Rem Pitlick. With players like Adam Beckman and Sammy Walker on the way, too, there might be some talent near the bottom of the lineup to play off of.

    Minnesota might not have a headliner of a center in their lineup, even if Rossi takes a big step next season. But if Rossi can play well enough to displace Hartman to a third-line role, and Hartman can duplicate his success from two years ago? That'd be a perfect bridge to the Marat Khusnutdinov Era, and the Wild would be a lot closer to solving their center problem that we think.

    All data via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.

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    Is the pic supposed to be of the Norwegian Hobbit? Just sayin, since it’s a Hartman themed article. 

    I think Hartman fits. He’s got the grit, no injection needed. Proved he can get hot and finish. For <2M, I think it’s a no-brainer.

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    But Hartman spent significantly less time with Kaprizov last year, just 35.1% of his 5-on-5 minutes. Kaprizov was only on the ice for 13 of Hartman's 35 5-on-5 goals (37.1%) and registered a point on only six of Hartman's 37 points (16.2%). 

    I think you mean 15 5v5 goals. 
     

    Hartman possibly being displaced by Rossi is laughable. Smaller, less grizzlier, younger player with no NHL scoring history other than pre-season doesn’t sound plausible to me at least. In ~500 NHL games Hartman is nearly 0.5 points per game. The Wild need to try to get him extended and find out if he’s willing to stay in MN on a sweetheart deal. If not, trade him at the deadline or keep him as your own rental.

    Problem is the Wild have Jack-squat for NHL centers who are ready to go other than all the eggs in the one Rossi-basket. Therefore, moving Hartman at the deadline is only possible if Rossi makes it. Otherwise keep Hartman through the playoffs and hope to get him signed before free agency. A one-year deal or similar thing to Goligoski could allow GMBG to retain Hartman until the cap penalties fall off.

    He’s not the most valuable trade piece IMO because he’s too valuable to the Wild for the price. Losing him for nothing but having him with the team through the end of next season is better than getting a future pick or player around 2M AAV. He’s easily one of the best <2M guys out there.

    Go get Nosek or Haula to get deeper at center for the time being. Playoff experience and neither would be crazy expensive. If Dumba moves on the money could be there especially if Zuccarello or another player is moved out.

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    I'd have to say that Hartman has priced himself out of an extension here. Shooter and he should talk, but I still see Hartman as a placeholder. What to do with him?

    Well, for starters, I like the sounds of a Duhaime-Hartman-Foligno line. I'm not saying "give" Rossi the #1 center role, but I am suggesting that would be a good switch. I like a good line identity, and that would be a hard line to play against. 

    When starting to construct lines, it is kind of hard to see where everyone fits.  For instance, the line mentioned above + Zuccarello-Rossi-Kaprizov, and Boldy-Ek-Johansson. Where does Freddy fit? 

    Also, I think we need to point out that while Hartman had a crashing back to earth type of year, much of it can be attributed to injury. I'm not talking the missing 22 games, it was obvious when he came back that he was not 100% or close to it. This hampered his play, but he was better than the next best option. 

    This is a business. Hartman has been a serious team first guy. He's said before he feels like he found a home. Money isn't his biggest priority, but with 1 big payday possibly left, you'd have to think he would take it. 

    To me, Beckman and Walker looked much closer to the N than the A. Even if the Wild are in a playoff scenario, I could see both Hartman and Foligno subtracted at the TDL to make room for guys they're holding places for. 

    Change is coming, so we cannot become so attached to players on the team that it holds back the transition to the kids. There will be necessary promotions coming next season, and I don't think Duhaime, Dewar, Shaw should be the players jettisoned. 

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    1 hour ago, Protec said:

    Is the pic supposed to be of the Norwegian Hobbit? Just sayin, since it’s a Hartman themed article. 

    I think Hartman fits. He’s got the grit, no injection needed. Proved he can get hot and finish. For <2M, I think it’s a no-brainer.

    That's Lizard to you. 🙂 

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    After the last two playoff performances, and the fact that they are in cap hell for 2 more years, I feel like whatever tinkering there is to be done is like tuning up a Kia for the Daytona 500.

     

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    Rossi’s heart injury and Shaw’s knees are a concern. Plus Duhaime has some durability issues. Not big obvious ones, but he seems to be hurt more regularly than Dewar at least. 
     

    I’ve compiled a short list of affordable UFA forward options if trades are made. Some weighting was applied for a few players who are known to the Wild or GMBG. Some players probably will expect a raise but I included their age and current AAV for consideration.

    JT Compher(COL) Age: 28. Pos. C/W. - 3.5M [NA]
    Pius Suter(DET) Age: 26. Pos: C. - 3.3M [CH]
    Erik Haula(NJ) Age: 32. Pos: C. - 2.4M [NA/FIN]
    Tyler Bertuzzi(BOS) Age: 28. Pos: W. - 2.4M [NA]
    Ivan Barbashev(VGK) Age: 27. Pos: C/W. - 2.3M [RUS]
    Pierre Engvall(NYI) Age: 26. Pos: W. - 2.3M [SWE]
    Evan Rodrigues(COL) Age: 29. Pos. C/W. - 2M. [NA]
    Tomas Nosek(BOS) Age: 30. Pos: C/W. - 1.8M [CZE]
    David Kamph(TOR) Age: 28. Pos: C. - 1.5M [CZE]
    Danton Heinen(PIT) Age: 27. Pos. W. - 1M [NA]
    Zach Aston-Reese(TOR) Age: 28. Pos: W. - 1M [NA]
    Noel Acciari(TOR) Age: 31. Pos: W. - 1.3M [NA]
    Connor Sheary(WSH) Age: 30. Pos: W. - 1.5M [NA]
    Tyler Motte(NYR) Age: 28. Pos: W. - 1.4M [NA]
    Derek Grant(ANA) Age: 33. Pos. C. - 1.5 [NA]
    Chris Tierny(MTL) Age: 28. Pos. C. - 1M [NA]
     

    Not terrible options. Some of these players will get more money. All have proven some NHL quality. I think there are at least a few that could be a good fit for MN’s needs. 
     

    On defense I liked a few options, depending on what happens with Dumba. Two guys are Russian not that #97 needs a guy from there but I factored that into this short-list. Not a huge need for the Wild unless Dumba goes. Soucy was a great player here while it lasted and was why Seattle selected him. I’d like to see him back with the Wild.

    Carson Soucy(SEA) Age: 28. Pos. LD. - 2.8M [NA]
    Vladislav Gavrikov(LA) Age: 27. Pos. LD. - 2.8M [RUS]
    Radko Gudas(FL) Age: 32. Pos. RD. - 2.5M [CZE]
    Dmitry Orlov(BOS) Age: 31. Pos. LD. - 1.3M [RUS]

    Food for thought while the Wild go into the draft looking to relieve cap pressure, shuffle the roster, and determine who’s part of the future, without taking a step backwards. 




     

     

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    20 hours ago, Protec said:

    Not terrible options. Some of these players will get more money. All have proven some NHL quality. I think there are at least a few that could be a good fit for MN’s needs. 
     

    I wonder if instead of looking at UFAs, we should be looking at trades for guys where another team can swallow 50% cap? 

    Also, I read a rumor of Smaltz maybe getting out of AZ. He's not too big, but he did produce some points. Also, on a tough AZ season, both of the past 2 he's been a + player. That's got to be worth like a +20 with our structure! The reason I bring him up is that his contract has heavy lifting the next couple of seasons, but his cap number is lower. I would think that would be a situation that could benefit us. OCL will spend the money, it's the cap thing that hinders him.

    I think we've gotten good reviews of being a place that people like to play in/at. Most players like the area. Maybe that could convince some Cs to come this way?

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