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  • How Do the Wild Balance Paying Kaprizov Superstar Money and Building A Contending Team?


    Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images
    Kalisha Turnipseed

    When it comes to Kirill Kaprizov, the Minnesota Wild are entering a tougher financial situation than with Marco Rossi. General manager Bill Guerin can’t afford to lose Kaprizov to free agency. Kaprizov is the franchise’s centerpiece, the player who makes Minnesota relevant on the national stage, and the single biggest reason fans believe a Stanley Cup is possible in the next five years. 

    His next contract will define the Wild’s contention window. It will also determine which stars Guerin can add to the roster and shape the franchise’s identity well into the 2030s. This is the most important decision of Guerin’s tenure as general manager.

    Below is Minnesota’s 2025-26 projected lineup, which highlights the Wild's current position in terms of their Cup window. Can Boldy take another step in production? Will Rossi build off of his sophomore season? Can Vladimir Tarasenko prove that he's still got it? Can Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno stay healthy? Will Ryan Hartman stay out of trouble? Will Danila Yurov prove that he's worth the hype? 

    All of these factors impact Kaprizov’s next contract.  

    2025-26 projected opening night lineup 

    2026-27 projected lineup  

    • Boldy - Rossi - Kaprizov 
    • UFA - Yurov - Ohgren 
    • Hartman - Eriksson Ek - Hunter Haight 
    • Foligno - Sturm - Trenin 

    UFA Targets: Artemi Panarin, Alex Ovechkin, and Andrei Kuzmenko

    Haight is the most interesting name on this roster, who has shown he’s an above-average producer in the AHL. Despite Iowa finishing with a 45-30-7 record, Haight was one of Iowa's bright spots. He finished 5th in scoring with 34 points in 67 games. Does he have the potential to be a top-five scorer for the Wild?

    Haight just needs to continue adding more muscle and getting faster. He has top-six skills that can fill a depth scoring role. Can he become the Wild’s version of Casey Mittlestadt, but a better two-way player? That would help Kaprizov because the Wild can use more help from within. Haight fits the description of a prolific scorer to support Kaprizov. 

    Panarin will likely be traded before the March 2026 trade deadline, but what if he chooses to test free agency? Can the Wild afford to sign Panarin, even if it's short-term? 

    Ovechkin will likely retire with the Washington Capitals, but what if Kaprizov can convince him to play with him even if it's for a year? Kuzmenko is an interesting name, but he’s polarizing because he’s so streaky. The Wild will be in Year 4 of the five-year plan. 

    2027-28 projected lineup 

    • Boldy - Rossi - Kaprizov 
    • UFA - Yurov - Ohgren 
    • Riley Heidt - Eriksson Ek - Haight 
    • Foligno - Charlie Stramel - Trenin 

    UFA Targets: Sidney Crosby, Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Seguin, Alex DeBrincat, and Jared McCann

    The Wild can choose to skip the 2026 free agent class. The 2027 class is slightly better in depth and talent. Could Guerin lure Crosby for a perfect coda to his career, much like Marc-Andre Fleury? Crosby will be 40, which means he's pushing retirement. However, is Crosby really slowing down? 

    In the last three seasons, Crosby has scored more than 90 points! A true definition of a generational talent. Crosby will be coming off a $8.7 million cap hit of his 2-year, $17.4 million contract. Guerin could create a situation where he can pay Crosby, while staying cap compliant due to his age. 

    Can Kaprizov convince Kucherov to play with him? It's unlikely because the Tampa Bay Lightning have a history of winning, and they're improving their bottom-six scoring. However, what if the Lightning fade out of contention? Will Kucherov want a fresh start? Kucherov won't demand a higher salary than his $9.5 million cap hit. If anything, he takes a cap hit of around $8 million. 

    Will Heidt be ready to play full-time with the Wild? If so, will he be here for the short-term or long-term? The Wild have more offensive wingers in its system, such as Ryder Ritchie and Adam Benak. Either of them could be Heidt's replacement if he doesn't translate to the NHL. The same goes for Haight. It'd be great if Haight and Heidt are a hit! The Wild will be in its fifth year of a five-year plan. 

    Elliotte Friedman reported that Kaprizov could receive an eight-year contract worth $128 million ($16 million AAV). Kaprizov’s likely waiting for Connor McDavid to sign his extension with the Edmonton Oilers. The question is, does McDavid truly want to stay in Edmonton? The same goes for Kaprizov in Minnesota. 

    The Athletic’s Joe Smith reported that Kaprizov could also sign for three to four years since the Wild haven't established themselves as legitimate Cup contenders. That will put more pressure on Guerin to maximize Kaprizov’s superstardom. Wild owner Craig Leipold mentioned that they were in Year 2 of his five-year plan last year. Now, the Wild are in their third year heading into the 2025-26 season. Is this where the Wild finally takes a turn for the better? 

    Can the Wild afford Kaprizov’s $16 million AAV for eight years? Even though Kaprizov’s a superstar, $16 million is a lot of money to pay a player, even with the cap going up. The Wild would be getting the security of having Kaprizov on the team long-term, but perhaps the $16 million can be his bonuses? 

    Auston Matthews signed a four-year, $53 million ($13.25 million AAV) contract extension last year. However, he received high bonuses in his first two years. 

    2024-25: $15.93 million 

    2025-26: $14.43 million 

    Nathan MacKinnon signed an eight-year, $100.8 million ($12.6 million AAV) contract extension back in 2023. In his first three years, he got high bonuses

    2023-24: $15.73 million 

    2024-25: $15.73 million 

    2025-26: $15.25 million 

    Leon Draisaitl signed an eight-year, $112 million ($14 million AAV) extension last year before training camp. Here are Draisaitl's bonuses

    2025-26: $15.5 million 

    2026-27: $15.5 million 

    2027-28: $15.5 million 

    The Wild don't want to put themselves in a position where they're unable to upgrade their talent during free agency. If I were Guerin, I'd get Kaprizov to agree to $15 million, $16 million, and $17 million in bonuses. A more manageable cap hit would be $14 million AAV over six years. Here's his bonuses. 

    2026-27: $17 million 

    2027-28: $17 million 

    2028-29: $16 million 

    2029-30: $16 million 

    2030-31: $15 million 

    2031-32: $15 million 

    Kaprizov won't be the highest-paid player in the NHL; McDavid will likely demand $16 million AAV from the Oilers. Honestly, who cares? Kaprizov should be happy that he starts with high bonuses. His $17 million bonus will be more than his AAV of $16 million. While his bonuses eventually decrease, he gets to enjoy the luxury of still being one of the highest-paid players.

    That’s the approach Guerin should take if he wants to land Panarin, Kucherov, or Crosby within two years. Kaprizov will be 35 once his extension expires. Either he'll sign another extension or join another team if the Wild don't progress into a Cup-winning team. 

    The Wild can’t afford to fumble with Kaprizov’s next deal. Guerin must find the perfect balance between keeping his superstar happy, leaving room for future upgrades, and aligning the team’s competitive window in Kaprizov’s prime. A creative structure with high bonuses and a manageable AAV gives Minnesota the best chance to add in free agency in 2026 or 2027. If Guerin fumbles this extension, he risks watching the most electrifying player in franchise history walk away.

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    Haight is the most interesting name on this roster, who has shown he’s an above-average producer in the AHL. Despite Iowa finishing with a 45-30-7 record, Haight was one of Iowa's bright spots. He finished 5th in scoring with 34 points in 67 games. Does he have the potential to be a top-five scorer for the Wild?

    Was Haight really an above average producer in the AHL? Give him credit for playing more games than all but one other forward(Bankier), and scoring 8 more points than Bankier, but .5 points per game in the AHL does not quite suggest above average production to me, although being around average at age 20 does seem solid.

    Luke Toporowski and Brendan Gaunce also scored at a faster pace than Haight, so he would have been around 7th among forwards for points per game. In a couple more years, Haight might be ready to help on the 3rd or 4th line, but I wouldn't expect to see many minutes for him on the 2nd line.

    I am looking forward to seeing how the Iowa Wild might do with an experienced coach like they'll have this season. Haight does seem to be a goal scorer, but I'm not sure he has a well-rounded game that would have him playing in elevated lines in the near future. Maybe he can get there in time.

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    Guerin must find the perfect balance between keeping his superstar happy, leaving room for future upgrades, and aligning the team’s competitive window in Kaprizov’s prime.

    If only he was competent...maybe.

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    Ok, Sidney Crosby is never going to leave Pittsburgh.  We can just let that one go.

    But Artemi Panarin might and should be on this team come trade deadline.  Also, he should be signed to a contract in the off season as well.  I think that Kirill and Panarin with Yurov between them would be a solid Russian line that would rival the Detroit lines of the early 90's.  

    Could the Wild afford 16 million for Kirill and 10 to 11 for Panarin.  They could but they would have to get rid of Brodin or Spurgeon or both of them in the off season.  And it would be worth it if they did.  The Wild have more than enough defenseman in the system to cover the loss of those two.  

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    1 hour ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    But Artemi Panarin might and should be on this team come trade deadline.

    Now we’re talking. The hope is that NY will be happy with taking picks and players that don’t diminish the SC window that acquiring AP helps open. 

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    To fully answer the question, it happens by using the kids. The build is mostly from within. The wonderful thing about having a cluster of kids from 3 drafts is the ability to go for it. If you can get a 3rd of the team or more in that age group cluster, they have a tendency to create something special. You'd need 7 to make significant contributions to the roster. We didn't draft all of them, but acquired them before they were main players. If 5 more can come in and make it, along with little brother Buium, we have a chance. 

    Then, instead of maybe swinging big for that elusive top free agent, maybe adding a couple of talented guys from this age group helps solidify the team. They would all be on affordable deals. As the cap increases, so does their pay.

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    Elliotte Friedman reported that Kaprizov could receive an eight-year contract worth $128 million ($16 million AAV). Kaprizov’s likely waiting for Connor McDavid to sign his extension with the Edmonton Oilers. The question is, does McDavid truly want to stay in Edmonton? The same goes for Kaprizov in Minnesota. 

    Elliotte Friedman doesn't care a bit about the Wild. His source here is Russo. But the thing that just frosts me on this is that Kaprizov is likely waiting for McDavid to sign first. That's so far away from the truth of the situation. Kaprizov isn't waiting for McDavid, he's waiting to get back into town because this signing has to be public for OCL's PR. 

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    The Wild don't want to put themselves in a position where they're unable to upgrade their talent during free agency. If I were Guerin, I'd get Kaprizov to agree to $15 million, $16 million, and $17 million in bonuses. A more manageable cap hit would be $14 million AAV over six years. Here's his bonuses. 

    2026-27: $17 million 

    2027-28: $17 million 

    2028-29: $16 million 

    2029-30: $16 million 

    2030-31: $15 million 

    2031-32: $15 million 

    This is very unclear. The only bonuses that Kaprizov is allowed to have are signing bonuses. The difference is that they are paid up front and regardless of whether or not there is a work stoppage (or a Covid stoppage).

    For the cap, they count the same as regular salary. We had a discussion on this a few months back and am a proponent of performance bonuses, which I believe is the direction that Kalisha was going here. Performance bonuses are only allowed in ELCs and 35+ contracts, and they do count against the cap, but there is a 7.5% overage allowed for such things. 

    I'm not really sure why Guerin couldn't fit in the ELC bonuses for Yurov with this overage allotment last season, but perhaps that was because of not having a true capologist on staff? 

    Either way, what do these bonuses do to help the situation? Absolutely nothing and the idea was never truly explained. I'm still confused as to what the point was.

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    15 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    They could but they would have to get rid of Brodin or Spurgeon or both of them in the off season.  And it would be worth it if they did.  The Wild have more than enough defenseman in the system to cover the loss of those two.  

    Perhaps you wouldn't want to do this with an unproven defensemen. But, next season, Jiricek would be proven. Spurgy would be my target in this scenario as we can backfill from strength and far lower prices. Will Jiricek be able to play the same steady game as Spurgeon? Likely not, but he should be a suitable replacement.

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    16 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    Ok, Sidney Crosby is never going to leave Pittsburgh.  We can just let that one go.

    Maybe he goes to Colorado to play with his buddy McKinnon. But you're right he ain't leaving the Pens (otherwise).

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    Are we banking on Boldy being the other superstar. Is that what we are asking? 

    Edmonton has Draisaitl and McDavid

    Penguins have/had Crosby and Malkin

    Panthers have Barkov and Tkachuk

    The Wild have Boldy and Kirill

    I don't see a UFA coming in and pulling that off.   It's Boldy and Kirill.  We need a few guys on the other lines to be key cogs and contributors but this Wild team will succed or fail on the backs of those two.  That seems to be the game plan of BG.

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    22 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    Now we’re talking. The hope is that NY will be happy with taking picks and players that don’t diminish the SC window that acquiring AP helps open. 

    Spurgeon and Hiedt should do it.

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    8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Perhaps you wouldn't want to do this with an unproven defensemen. But, next season, Jiricek would be proven. Spurgy would be my target in this scenario as we can backfill from strength and far lower prices. Will Jiricek be able to play the same steady game as Spurgeon? Likely not, but he should be a suitable replacement.

    By the trade deadline the Wild should know what they have with the defense core.  As good as Spurgeon is he is kind of a black hole on offense and makes a lot of money for his production.  I will gladly trade his 25 points and ok defense for someone who could score 100 points and cause his linemate to score over a hundred points along with him.  

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    15 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    By the trade deadline the Wild should know what they have with the defense core.  As good as Spurgeon is he is kind of a black hole on offense and makes a lot of money for his production.  I will gladly trade his 25 points and ok defense for someone who could score 100 points and cause his linemate to score over a hundred points along with him.  

    I just don't know why that would make sense for New York?  I know New York would rather get something for Panarin rather than just lose him, but if they lose one of their main offensive weapons, why would they want an aging, undersized defenseman who doesn't put up much for points?  All that does is loses them offense and they will have even more cap space tied up in their defense for another year after the trade.

    The prospect being offered would have to be really desirable for NY to think that was a good idea, and Heidt just doesn't tick that box.  I'm not very high on Heist personally so maybe my bias is tainting my judgment here, but even while trying to ignore that, I just don't see it.  The only way I take that offer if I'm New York is if absolutely no one else is biting, and there definitely will be other teams making offers for Panarin so the Wild's offer would have to give New York something that they would want, which would be a younger, talented offensive player with a high ceiling - the type of player we don't have in abundance, or at least not a player we would want to lose.

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    On 9/8/2025 at 4:33 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Was Haight really an above average producer in the AHL? Give him credit for playing more games than all but one other forward(Bankier), and scoring 8 more points than Bankier, but .5 points per game in the AHL does not quite suggest above average production to me, although being around average at age 20 does seem solid.

    Luke Toporowski and Brendan Gaunce also scored at a faster pace than Haight, so he would have been around 7th among forwards for points per game. In a couple more years, Haight might be ready to help on the 3rd or 4th line, but I wouldn't expect to see many minutes for him on the 2nd line.

    I am looking forward to seeing how the Iowa Wild might do with an experienced coach like they'll have this season. Haight does seem to be a goal scorer, but I'm not sure he has a well-rounded game that would have him playing in elevated lines in the near future. Maybe he can get there in time.

    Not disagreeing with your comments, but keep in mind that as maligned as Freddy Gaudreau was regarding his offense, he was still top 5 or 6 on the team in points most of the years he was here.

    Top 5 in points for the Wild hasn't been a high bar.

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    37 minutes ago, raithis said:

    keep in mind that as maligned as Freddy Gaudreau was regarding his offense, he was still top 5 or 6 on the team in points most of the years he was here.

    Top 5 in points for the Wild hasn't been a high bar.

    True, Gaudreau wasn't a big hitter, but he was useful and mostly healthy--the one season he wasn't, he tallied only 15 points while still playing 67 games. I wasn't one to complain about him on a $2M deal. He clearly had NHL talent and could play above the 4th line or simply play on the 4th line.

    With that in mind, Haight might be somewhat ahead of Gaudreau's early career, but fans didn't seem to want Gaudreau to be playing in the top 2 lines either. Gaudreau scored .56 points per game in what was the equivalent of Haight's upcoming year, so if he takes a step forward and exceeds .6 PPG in the upcoming AHL season, maybe he could be better than Gaudreau. They're similarly sized.

    In Gaudreau's last season of CHL play, he tallied 71 points in 63 games with 32 goals. In Haight's last season before joining the AHL, he tallied 67 points in 68 games with 25 goals. I think Gaudreau was a year older at the time, and he had gone undrafted, but Haight has some development yet to accomplish in order to reach the level of play that Gaudreau displayed with the MN Wild.

    I'm not stating Haight cannot get there, but Gaudreau developed his game for years before becoming an NHL regular, so he was likely quite a bit ahead of where Haight is now when he joined the Wild.

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    7 hours ago, raithis said:

    I just don't know why that would make sense for New York?  I know New York would rather get something for Panarin rather than just lose him, but if they lose one of their main offensive weapons, why would they want an aging, undersized defenseman who doesn't put up much for points?  All that does is loses them offense and they will have even more cap space tied up in their defense for another year after the trade.

    The prospect being offered would have to be really desirable for NY to think that was a good idea, and Heidt just doesn't tick that box.  I'm not very high on Heist personally so maybe my bias is tainting my judgment here, but even while trying to ignore that, I just don't see it.  The only way I take that offer if I'm New York is if absolutely no one else is biting, and there definitely will be other teams making offers for Panarin so the Wild's offer would have to give New York something that they would want, which would be a younger, talented offensive player with a high ceiling - the type of player we don't have in abundance, or at least not a player we would want to lose.

    All reports is New York wants to rebuild.  Having someone like Spurgeon on a team with rookies would not be a bad thing.  But you are right everyone in the league who thinks they have a crack at a playoff run is going to want Panarin if he is on the block which he more than likely will.  

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    17 minutes ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    All reports is New York wants to rebuild.  Having someone like Spurgeon on a team with rookies would not be a bad thing.  But you are right everyone in the league who thinks they have a crack at a playoff run is going to want Panarin if he is on the block which he more than likely will.  

    There may be talk of a rebuild, but their actions don't indicate a team trying to rebuild.  Retool maybe, but not rebuild. 

    They are also mostly bringing on younger players and transitioning away from older players.  I don't see them wanting to bring on Spurgeon or his contract.  They want to be in play for better, younger players, not time up cap space with an aging defenseman.

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