Has Filip Gustavsson Reached His Limit As A Starter?

Filip Gustavsson has been better than most people's expectations this year after finishing last season with a .899 SV% and GAA of 3.06. His 14.8 goals saved above expected highlights his surprising improvement, which results from low expectations and an elevated level of play.

The 26-year-old goaltender has undoubtedly elevated his play from the last season. 

Gustavsson has won 18 of 30 games, has a .917 SV%, and has a 2.50 GAA. It’s no surprise Gustavsson’s numbers no longer lead the league after playing behind the Minnesota Wild’s heavily injured blueline and without Kirill Kaprizov. Still, he’s had a strong start to the season.

As we reach the halfway point of the 2024-25 season, Gustavsson is playing an unprecedented number of games in his career. With half a season left to play, he has already played 30 games, putting him on pace to play close to 60 games this season. That would be 15 more starts than he’s played in his NHL career. 

Because of his previously small workload, Gustavsson has yet to prove himself as a bonafide starter who can carry a team through a regular season, let alone the postseason. Gustavsson has also been the victim of the injury bug, suffering a lower-body injury midway through December. Still, Gus looked good five games into his return, shutting out the talented Carolina Hurricanes, who ranks fourth in scoring in the NHL with 147 goals this season. We have only seen Gustavsson’s play begin to slip in the last three games. 

The Wild pulled Gustavsson early against the St. Louis Blues after he let in four goals through 24 minutes of play. Although the Wild found a way to win that game, Gustavsson’s sloppy play put them behind in the first place. 

Minnesota didn’t pull Gustavsson against the Colorado Avalanche and the Vegas Golden Knights but didn’t fare any better. Gustavsson let in 10 goals in those two games and recorded his first two consecutive regulation losses this season. 

His winning streak was bound to end. Still, if Gustavsson is as good as he looked earlier this year, his win record was unsustainable. However, his performance raises more questions about the goaltender's future and the team's decision to rely heavily on the goaltender. 

Without much proof of Gustavsson’s ability to play well and do so consistently, the Wild have had a massive workload for Gus. If they’re overworking Gustavsson, it’s more likely that we will see more injuries like the one he suffered in December. He has an injury history around this point in the season and suffered a similar lower-body injury last season.

The Wild don’t have much depth behind Gustavsson if he gets injured. Marc-Andre Fleury can occasionally play like he’s 30, but he likely can’t handle being a starter anymore. Jesper Wallstedt still must develop before he can handle a full NHL schedule.

Bill Guerin is in a tough spot because he must manage a team with $15 million in dead cap space, but he also must have contingency plans. Ironically, because of the Wild’s strong start to the season, there is even more pressure on Guerin for the team to succeed. 

There wouldn’t be a need for a conversation about Gustavsson and his playoff capabilities if the Wild were as average as many predicted during the offseason. Instead, Minnesota is second in the Central. While the gap between the Dallas Stars is closing, it’s impressive that the Wild have stuck around. Their strong start catapulted them high enough into the standings to cushion them in tough stretches. 

That said, I think Gustavsson’s play is simply a product of the Wild’s situation. Gustavsson doesn't have his usual support with Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Brock Faber out of the lineup. While it would be nice for him to take matters into his own hands, it is unfair to expect a goaltender to deal with injuries and carry an injured team like Minnesota. 

Still, Gustavsson’s recent play has invited scrutiny. He has played 30 games and is looking at playing 30 more, and it is now up to Gus to prove that he can take on the workload he must to keep the Wild in the playoff race. If he can’t rise to the challenge after the team gets healthy, Minnesota won’t be able to capitalize on its surprising start. However, it might make transitioning to Wallstedt a lot easier.