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  • Guerin Ignored the Noise and Had A Smart Offseason


    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
    Luke Sims

    The Minnesota Wild promised fans that July 1, 2025, would be “like Christmas.” It would be a holiday where the Wild would go out and spend all the money they have, because the league will have largely minimized the cap penalties for buying out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

    With the cap going up and a bevy of cap space available to them to spend, the team was in a position to spend some cash on some sweet new additions to push the Wild over the top and finally break through that first-round curse.

    However, Christmas morning has felt more like Presidents Day for the Wild. They’ve only inked one contract with one established NHL player, center Nico Sturm. While it’s nice to see a reunion with an old friend, a fourth-line center isn't exactly what most Wild fans had in mind when owner Craig Leipold promised them a free agency worth celebrating.

    They traded future considerations for veteran winger Vladimir Tarasenko.

    So, a scorer who may be past his prime and a fourth-line center? Those are not the Christmas presents Wild fans were hoping to receive. This is outrageous! It’s unfair! I want my GM to make reckless moves for the sake of making them so I can find something else to complain about!

    The Wild overpromised, but delivered

    Take a deep breath and realize that Bill is not going full Jim Benning in free agency. It’s a blessing in disguise, even though the Wild promised Christmas years ago. Pressure from ownership can force sports franchises into detrimental short-term thinking, and the Wild don’t want to become the latest example.

    Nobody is going to feel that Minnesota’s acquisitions will change its fate. Still, the front office made shrewd deals that make a lot of sense for the team’s short- and long-term future.

    Tarasenko should be more productive in Minnesota

    Starting with the new additions, Tarasenko sought a change and chose to relocate to Minnesota. The Russian waived his no-trade clause to join the Wild for the opportunity to play with Kaprizov and win a third Stanley Cup before the end of his career. Tarasenko has scored 30 goals or more six times in his NHL career and is only one season removed from scoring 23 goals and recording 55 points.

    Taresenko played on a Red Wings team that missed the playoffs, where he primarily played third-line minutes alongside J.T. Compher and Jonatan Berggren. Not exactly the kind of guys who are known for being playmakers. Taresenko thrives when he has someone who can pass him the puck, especially from center ice out to the wing. 

    Marco Rossi and Danilla Yurov are ideal centers to complement Taresenko’s scoring ability. The Wild also have an option of playing him with Kaprizov, an adept playmaker who elevates everyone on his line.

    Sturm is an old friend who fixes new problems

    Fans remember Sturm as an elite faceoff guy with experience on the penalty kill. He’s a welcome addition to a team that struggled on the dot. None of Minnesota’s other centers were above average in the faceoff circle. 

    Sturm replaces Freddy Gaudreau, after they traded him to the Seattle Kraken. Adding a more defensively sound, faceoff-winning center will be a boon to the Wild’s penalty kill and faceoff percentage. At only $2 million for two seasons, that’s a wonderful little contract for Minnesota.

    The Wild also get a big win in the hope they’ll retain Rossi after an offseason of trade rumors. Guerin has stated that the Wild will match any offer sheet from another team.

    While Guerin may not be committed to Rossi long-term, he remains a highly effective playmaking center who appears to be only getting better as he develops his game. The Wild’s free-agent options at center were limited. Pius Suter played for the Vancouver Canucks last year and is the biggest name on the market. That’s not inspiring, nor is it needle-moving for Minnesota, so they’re wise to stick with their homegrown center.

    Depending on that Rossi deal, which will probably land in the $5 to $7 million range, this leaves the Wild with $10,961,668 in remaining cap space, assuming Zeev Buium, David Jiricek, Liam Ohgren, Danilla Yurov, and Jesper Wallstedt make the opening night roster.

    By avoiding the addition of numerous veterans and bloated contracts, the Wild maintains cap and roster flexibility, with the youngsters poised to make an impact on the roster.

    The internal improvements and developments from these young players are an exciting way for the Wild to build a team that wins in the playoffs. Ohgren looks primed to become a scoring threat this year, and Buium flashed his offensive potential on the blueline. Yurov has come over from the KHL and is ready to make an impact. Wallstedt should establish himself in the NHL this year.

    Many teams overspent in free agency, especially the Los Angeles Kings. Therefore, I’m thrilled with the Wild adding Sturm and the no-risk acquisition of Taresenko.

    Although the fans and owners clamored for Christmas Day, Guerin wisely preserved the team's financial future without further handicapping the team with bad investments. 

    Sometimes the best free agent deals are the ones you don’t sign.

    All stats and data via HockeyDB, CapWages, and Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.

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    Rather than Christmas season, it felt more like tax return season. Suddenly Guerin has some money to play with and I'm fine with him waiting for a great deal rather than blowing it all right away on a shiny new toy at full price.

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    I’m happy Fred is gone. Vlad hasn’t played good hockey in years. We were told top six center and scoring winger. .kappy isn’t signed and who knows what’s up with Rossi .Its hard to see how this was a smart offseason when Billy devalued his top prospect and can’t get squat for him 

    is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year. Like Russo said Rossi s agent isn’t interested in a cheap deal so Billy can then trade him on a good contract. 
        Billy still hasn’t addressed top 6 center or a real scoring winger for years to come. He bought time. He tells a bunch of lies then makes excuses. He’s got a pocket full of money and a bunch of excuses. Next year free agency will be the same. We are not a destination. So to believe another year is what we need is ridiculous.  We need a draft team to draft better and a gm that knows how to make trades because no one wants to come here via free agency. 
        Billy and smart shouldn’t be in same sentence. 

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    10 minutes ago, Dean said:

    I’m happy Fred is gone. Vlad hasn’t played good hockey in years. We were told top six center and scoring winger. .kappy isn’t signed and who knows what’s up with Rossi .Its hard to see how this was a smart offseason when Billy devalued his top prospect and can’t get squat for him 

    is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year. Like Russo said Rossi s agent isn’t interested in a cheap deal so Billy can then trade him on a good contract. 
        Billy still hasn’t addressed top 6 center or a real scoring winger for years to come. He bought time. He tells a bunch of lies then makes excuses. He’s got a pocket full of money and a bunch of excuses. Next year free agency will be the same. We are not a destination. So to believe another year is what we need is ridiculous.  We need a draft team to draft better and a gm that knows how to make trades because no one wants to come here via free agency. 
        Billy and smart shouldn’t be in same sentence. 

    So, what top 6 center, or real scoring winger was available?  No legitimate top 6 centers were available, Boeser was offered his contract before free agency opened, and Ehlers wants to play in a warmer climate.  

    Also, even if Rossi were to sign a one-year deal, he would still be a RFA next year with us still controlling his rights.

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    Maybe just maybe, they want to save money for their own guys (Jiricek's ELC is up in a year), and have money left over.  Weird concept for a Wild team.

    I do not expect any major trade or free agent to WANT to sign here (Boeser was the only one it seems).  The Wild has to win something or show promise in the regular season before anyone will bother.  No sense spending money no one wants expect our own players.

     

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    Maybe Christmas morning wasn't referring to free agents. Maybe Christmas morning was referring to shiny new ELC guys! Possibly having 5 rookies on the roster would certainly change up the team. That's between 20-25% of the roster. That's a lot of change. Factor in Sturm and Tarasenko and we've got a lot of turnover. 

    It just doesn't seem like we've let that many guys go, though.

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    The free agency class was weak, most of who we dreamt of getting were off the market before the opening bell. Where are people getting the idea we were promised a top 6 winger and a scoring center? I think those were the lies we told ourselves but I could be wrong. Going into the season with cap flexibility will be a big change for them this year, opens up the chances to make trades in season for someone worth while.

    As far as no deal for Kap or Rossi yet, its summer, these things take time, plus Vlad has said Kap was the one who convinced him to waive his NTC to come here, that should mean something. When it comes to Rossi, who knows what he is asking, maybe its a 7 year 8+ mil contract which would give me pause. If it is known that he is available and they aren't getting decent offers then for sure hold onto him and see if anyone changes their mind, or he earns a larger new contract from the wild. I get its already July 3rd and no Kap or Rossi moves which is wild, I mean its been 2 whole days. Do we know where Kap is today? I am guessing that kind of signing would want to be done in person.

    Starting next year, contracts start to fall off opening a lot more money, yes new contracts for Kap and others. Lets say Kap gets 15/year, thats only 6mil more a year, that is offset by losing Zucc, Vlad, NoJo and Bogo, which opens up 11+ mil. 2 years, Hartman, Spurge, and Sturm for another 13.5 mil opened. The hope is a couple young guys step up on cheep contracts to take spots then fill in with big spending on high end guys. Maybe get a few good new contracts like Boldy for 7/yr or Ek for 5.25/year. Craig had poor marketing calling this Christmas, because that wasn't possible, BUT, it does open up the window to shake the team up and make real changes. Pie in the sky, a lot of prospects hit and we have massive trade ammo to go get a Brady Tkachuk or Rantanen style player. Perhaps its a slow burn Christmas.

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    With the absolute bottom of the barrel options available in FA, Im glad Guerin chose to sit on his hands. Overpaying for a guy like Boeser would have been a huge disappointment. Especially since he doesnt really put up much more points than rossi, and is worse in the defensive end. 

    Im usually critical of Billy, but its not his fault that there were no good players going into FA this year.

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    Now that most of the decent FA's are signed, teams will stop looking at their wish lists and moving on to their reality lists.

    Teams like the Penguins, who have too many forwards under contract now, are going to have to make some moves. Rust and Rakell have been talked about getting moved but the right deal hasn't materialized.

    This is the time that I hope Silly G. doesn't do something stupid just because there's a potential deal to be had. I hope he sticks to the priorities and gets Kaprizov signed first and foremost.

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    How is it noise if the “Christmas” crap was coming from people within the organization?

    He wanted it to be Christmas.  He just bungled it.

    What will the excuse be next year when he can’t offload players that he devalued for top trade capital, and no high end free agents want to play in this endless purgatory.

    Can we stop pretending the salary cap is the real limitation?  Because every time I look up Vegas is bringing on another $10M+ contract, among others.  There’s ways of Billy was smart enough to know how to use them.

    The thing that irritates people is that clearly this wasn’t the plan.  They wanted to rebuild this team, but couldn’t execute it.  If they couldn’t make something happen this year, after telling fans for 5 years to wait for this summer (they had years to plan), then can they ever make anything happen?

    If they would’ve kept their mouths shut and not promised their fan base the world, it wouldn’t sting as much for many.  Now, we have to watch another year of garbage hockey while listening to their promises for the future.

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    The moves thus far are very vanilla and don't make us any better than last year.  Imagine that a pro team in minnesota making promises to fans to build championship teams.  And here we sit again.  Wild are going to be telling us to be patient again.  It's the same old story year after year yet teams in the "hockey hotbeds" of Tampa Bay,  Florida, Dallas are able to get quality players.  I too am glad he didn't just throw money at players and get junk.  He's already done that with many of his previous signings.

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    4 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Maybe just maybe, they want to save money for their own guys (Jiricek's ELC is up in a year), and have money left over.  Weird concept for a Wild team.

    I do not expect any major trade or free agent to WANT to sign here (Boeser was the only one it seems).  The Wild has to win something or show promise in the regular season before anyone will bother.  No sense spending money no one wants expect our own players.

     

    I don't think that's it. They have structured the veteran contracts in a way that the ELC guys can easily have the vet cap-hits rolled into their extension without disrupting much. 

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    I'm reading nationally how Detroit is trying to upgrade their defense. They're looking for a top 4 guy, hopefully with an RHS. They've got $12m to spend. 

    For me, this looks like a great opportunity and fit for Jared Spurgeon. He plays behind Seider on the 2nd pairing, and, the Red Wings would backfill the future with some RHS guys not ready yet. 

    Nate Danielson is the guy I'd be targeting, who could be an important piece in Detroit's future lineup. However, the fans are growing restless in Detroit, and Spurgeon is just the guy whose steady play and leadership can get that team there. 

    And, who would we backfill with? Jiricek. Toss him in there. Danielson can help the forward group as he's a center but may need another year in the A. 

    For me, it's time for new leadership, new jerseys and the new young puppies to start playing. I'd prefer Ek to take over, but could see Kaprizov wearing the K.  

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    By the time the "Christmas in July" announcement was made most teams front office had most likely projected a weak UFA market already. The only noise Guerin ignored was his own and that of his owner. The fans got played again. 

    Hockey is now mostly analytics and projections. Is there no one left in the front office paying attention to these things or has Guerin bullied them all out because only he can be the smartest guy in the room. 

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    8 hours ago, Dean said:

    I’m happy Fred is gone. Vlad hasn’t played good hockey in years. We were told top six center and scoring winger. .kappy isn’t signed and who knows what’s up with Rossi .Its hard to see how this was a smart offseason when Billy devalued his top prospect and can’t get squat for him 

    is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year. Like Russo said Rossi s agent isn’t interested in a cheap deal so Billy can then trade him on a good contract. 
        Billy still hasn’t addressed top 6 center or a real scoring winger for years to come. He bought time. He tells a bunch of lies then makes excuses. He’s got a pocket full of money and a bunch of excuses. Next year free agency will be the same. We are not a destination. So to believe another year is what we need is ridiculous.  We need a draft team to draft better and a gm that knows how to make trades because no one wants to come here via free agency. 
        Billy and smart shouldn’t be in same sentence. 

    I agree with your take on the Rossi situation. But what top 6 center would you have liked Bill to sign??? 

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    4 minutes ago, BillieGismylover said:

    I agree with your take on the Rossi situation. But what top 6 center would you have liked Bill to sign??? 

    Would feel a lot better about things if Billy got jack roslovic for $4mm and also signed Kuznetsov for $3mm then we would be deep at center and have options.  Then would trade Rossi and Spurgeon to Detroit for Danielson and a Pick. 

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    22 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

    So, what top 6 center, or real scoring winger was available?  No legitimate top 6 centers were available, Boeser was offered his contract before free agency opened, and Ehlers wants to play in a warmer climate.  

    Looks like Ehlers went to Carolina for $8.5M. Might be okay for Carolina, but that's more than most wanted to give him.

    Brent Burns to Colorado for $1M? That's a bit surprising, but I'm not upset he's not joining the Wild. He's 40 years old and the Wild need their young defensemen to get playing time.

    Also looks like Winnipeg replaced Ehlers with Nyquist at $3.25M...

    Edited by Imyourhuckleberry
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    Also thought this was interesting:

    Marat Khusnutdinov has signed a 2 year, $1,850,000 contract with a cap hit of $925,000 per season, playing for the Boston Bruins.

    Justin Brazeau has signed a 2 year, $3,000,000 contract with a cap hit of $1,500,000 per season, playing for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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    On 7/3/2025 at 12:23 PM, Dean said:

    is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year.

    Will Guerin match any offer? No, he'll likely match any offer up to a 1, 2, 3 from weak teams. 

    If another team offersheets Rossi to a 1 year deal, that number had better be pretty high, or Guerin just matches. Then, we are right back to now, where Rossi is an RFA (not a UFA as inferred). 

    If you're trying the 1 year deal, like the Canes tried with Kotkaniemi, and then sign the player longterm to a more reasonable deal, you're still looking at compensation being 1, 2, 3 in 2026 or even higher. I just don't think that Rossi is good enough to garner such an offer. 

    In Guerinspeak, we will match any offer really means that the Wild will match any offer unless you're giving up a lot of compensation. If you want to give me your next to 1st rounders, you've got my attention. If you want to give me next seasons 1, 2, 3, you've also got my attention. If you're going to give me your next year's 1, 3, well, I'll most likely match. 

    So, what Guerin is really saying to those other GMs out there is you're offer had better be pretty high or you just wasted your time and pissed me off. There will be NO soup for you!

    Precedence? See Montreal's offer for Aho. Aho signed a medium sized offersheet from Montreal only to have Waddell simply match and target Montreal later. He did this with a short term high dollar deal when Montreal couldn't financially match it. He got the player and Montreal also lost another center in UFA. 

    The Oilers traded out GMs last season and were hard against the cap. St. Louis swooped in and stole 2 of their players, mainly because Army didn't like Bowman. Bowman couldn't get things accomplished in a week and had to let both guys go. 

    The Wild are in the position of the Canes right now. They've got plenty of money to match. This is why I don't think other GMs will take the chance to piss off Guerin and not accomplish anything. Even within divisions, GMs try not to piss off their division rival GMs because then it becomes personal. While 5 teams in the central might have the ammo to come get Rossi, they might get matched and have only accomplished pissing the other guy off. 

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    Could it be the case that Guerin has already signed Roslovic but is not keen on announcing it because the other GM might then know how much space is left to target Rossi?

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    On 7/3/2025 at 10:51 PM, ArizonaWildFan said:

    This is the time that I hope Silly G. doesn't do something stupid just because there's a potential deal to be had. I hope he sticks to the priorities and gets Kaprizov signed first and foremost.

    Why should Kaprisov sign without even knowing which Center will play on the team ? Rossi gone and Eriksson Ek injured for 25 games 

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    4 hours ago, goenzoy said:

    Why should Kaprisov sign without even knowing which Center will play on the team ?

    Was watching Joe Smith and Michael Russo yesterday and they are pretty certain that Kaprizov will be signing. They are saying the reason it hasn't happened yet is that Kirill is in Moscow. The thought is that that contract will be announced very publicly when he gets back. Makes sense.

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