Frederick Gaudreau's Bounceback Season Is Driving Minnesota's Secondary Scoring

When the Wild defeated the Edmonton Oilers 5-3 on November 21, it was a significant win for Minnesota in a season full of them. The Oilers were victorious in four of their previous six games and are looking to build momentum after a rough start. The Wild still picked up a win in a way they often didn’t last season, getting critical contributions from depth pieces. Frédérick Gaudreau, Marcus Foligno, and Ryan Hartman registered multi-point efforts in the win. Gaudreau put in a strong effort with two goals.

Minnesota’s usual suspects are having great seasons, but seeing a vital game won through the efforts of depth players is encouraging. The bottom-6's big night was the most recent example of the Wild's depth scoring improving significantly from last year. Gaudreau has been a significant contributor, with 12 points in 20 games and solid defensive play. Gaudreau's hot start represents a huge bounce back from his career-worst year 2023-24 season. Fortunately, it's a development the Wild sorely needed.  

The Wild Need Scoring Depth

Before we discuss Gaudreau's bounceback, it's crucial to contextualize how essential depth scoring is for the Wild. Last season was disappointing, and the team's lack of secondary scoring was particularly consequential. In the 2023-24 season, only six players averaged .4 points per game for the Wild. Most of those six players were Minnesota’s top players, like Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, etc. The Wild's secondary scoring issues were so pronounced that the NHL.com season previews named it one of the keys to Minnesota's season.

Frédérick Gaudreau had an especially lousy season, registering 15 points in 67 games. According to Moneypuck.com, Minnesota’s opponents heavily outscored them when Gaudreau was on the ice, with the team scoring just 29.4% of goals in his minutes. Freddy's possession numbers weren't much better, posting a 45% Corsi-for rating and a 46% Fenwick. 

Gaudreau was arguably the most disappointing in a season of poor performances from the Wild’s depth players. The forward's play even had many hoping Minnesota could trade him in the offseason. A move never materialized, and the Wild opened their season needing a considerable return to form by Gaudreau. So far, the utility forward has delivered.

Gaudreau Is Bouncing Back in a Big Way

Freddy Gaudreau has drastically improved from last season. The most apparent difference is his scoring output. He has 12 points in 20 games this year, only three points from equaling his total of 15 in 67 games last season. Gaudreau is also putting up some of his best underlying numbers during his career with the Wild.

According to Moneypuck.com, Gaudreau is registering some of his best possession numbers and producing the best quality possession in his Wild career. For the first time, he’s expected to outscore opponents. Gaudreau has 12 points on four goals and eight assists, all at even strength. Of his eight assists, Gaudreau has the primary assist seven times, making this his highest rate of primary to secondary assists.

How has Gaudreau improved so vastly? Let’s start with some bad luck. Gaudreau had a poor season last year, but the results were worse than he deserved. His shooting percentage was only 4.8%, far below his career average (9.6%). Gaudreau had an on-ice goals percentage of 29.4% compared to an expected 40.1%. Even if his numbers had matched his expected output, it wouldn’t have been a good year, but it’d have been better. 

Gaudreau also didn’t have much consistency in linemates. His most common line combination was with Patrick Maroon and Marcus Foligno (125.5 minutes). Gaudreau played 934 minutes, so he was getting moved around a lot. It also didn’t help that Patrick Maroon (44.4% on-ice goals percentage) and Marcus Foligno (44.8 on-ice goals percentage) had poor individual seasons. 

Gaudreau was also a key piece of a penalty-killing unit that was among the worst in the league last season. A bit of bad luck and inconsistent deployment likely contributed to Gaudreau’s nightmare season. However, he’s made some critical adjustments in his game, leading to his turnaround.

The most noticeable thing about Gaudreau’s season in 2024-25 is that he’s playing a simplified game that produces results. Let’s examine his five-on-five shot chart from this season and last season.

2024-25 Five-on-Five

Gaudreau has committed to shooting much closer to the net. He’s averaging a total of five feet closer in average shot distance, and that’s resulting in much higher quality shots. Each shot Gaudreau takes results in .029 greater expected goals than last year.

He has also meaningfully improved defensively. According to Naturalstattrick.com, Gaudreau has given up an expected 1.93 goals per 60 minutes. That ranks 50th in the league or in the top 15% of players who have played more than 100 minutes. Last season, he gave up 2.4 expected goals against per 60, ranking 264th. 

In every conceivable way, Freddy Gaudreau has vastly improved upon last year and has become a driver of play for the Wild’s bottom six. 

Is Gaudreau’s Production Sustainable?

While Gaudreau's season has improved considerably over last season, the Wild have only played 20 games. Therefore, it’s natural to wonder whether his start is sustainable. Many players can have a hot stretch, but not everyone can turn it into an entire season. What do Gaudreau's numbers say about whether he can keep being a positive player?

Earlier, we discussed that Gaudreau's worst season was partially due to a deficient shooting percentage. If we're going to excuse a low shooting percentage as bad luck, it's only fair to point out that Gaudreau's 13.8% shooting rate this year is tied for his career high. 

Still, Gaudreau’s shooting percentage may be the product of the better-quality shots he's gotten this season. He's also outpacing his expected on-ice goals percentage (52.1%) with his actual on-ice goals percentage (60.7%). It'd be easy to expect Gaudreau's quality of possession to regress closer to his expected numbers eventually.

Gaudreau's scoring is closely tied to who he plays with. This year, his most common linemates are Marcus Foligno and Yakov Trenin. Foligno and Trenin are more physical and defensive players who can go cold offensively. Trenin has had a notable lack of offense this season for the Wild. Gaudreau's numbers could suffer if Foligno and Trenin continue to produce low offensive outputs. 

The Foligno-Gaudreau-Trenin line is the best in Minnesota regarding expected goal percentage. If that line continues together, Gaudreau's defensive numbers should remain stellar.

There are reasons to believe Gaudreau’s numbers are replicable throughout the season, but some that could point to an incoming downturn. Even if there is some regression, Gaudreau’s bounceback season has been crucial to the Wild’s hot start. If he and the rest of Minnesota’s depth players continue to produce, they won’t have to worry about falling victim to a lack of secondary scoring.