By Tony Abbott -
If Kirill Kaprizov is healthy anytime in the near future, he's going to get Hart Trophy love. His health is the only thing stopping him from being the clear-cut front-runner. Through 34 games, he has 23 goals and 50 points, which translates to a full-season pace of 55 goals and 120 points. He's been unreal this season, bearing a ton of the load for Minnesota and carrying their offense in spectacular fashion.
But the most absurd part of the MVP discussion is that, really, Kaprizov's not close to even being the most impactful player on the Wild. That honor should probably go to a player many thought was trade bait this offseason: Filip Gustavsson.
There's a really simple argument and a more complicated one in the Gus Bus' favor. Here's the easy one: What's the biggest difference between the 2023-24 Wild and the 2024-25 version?
Here's a hint: Kaprizov was really freaking good last year.
As for Gustavsson, though? Yikes. After a breakout season where he went 22-9-7 in 39 games (37 starts) with a .931 save percentage, the wheels fell off last year. Gus' .899 save percentage last year was exactly at the league average in 2023-24 (.8991), and that mark was technically the best in Minnesota. But he felt so much less consistent, and therefore less playable, than even Marc-André Fleury and his .895 save percentage.
Now things are rolling for the Bus. His 16-6-3 record in 25 starts has nearly matched his win total (20) from last season. Gus' save percentage is third in the NHL at .923. Beyond the numbers, he's stolen wins, such as a 1-0 shutout at the Buffalo Sabres, where he turned away 39 shots. Gustavsson has also stolen points, stopping 27 of 29 shots to enable an overtime win at the Dallas Stars. He has kept Minnesota in almost every game he's played.
That's it. That's the difference. And here's where we get into a bit more of a complicated argument: The dirty little secret of the NHL is that it's extremely rare that the best player in the league actually gets the Hart Trophy.
Last season, the MVP honors went to Nathan MacKinnon, which is a defensible decision. He was worth 11.4 Standings Points Above Replacement last season, per Evolving-Hockey. By himself, he was the difference between the Colorado Avalanche comfortably making the playoffs with 107 and missing the postseason with 96.
Those are crazy numbers. Almost as crazy as Connor Hellebuyck being worth 13.2 SPAR for the 110-point Winnipeg Jets, pushing a team that would otherwise be outside the playoff bubble to second place in the Central Division.
That's no knock on MacKinnon and his 51-goal, 140-point season. It's pretty incredible that he managed to be the second-best player in the NHL. The gap between the Hart Trophy winner and the real NHL MVP usually isn't even that close.
Take the year before, when Connor McDavid won with a historic season where he racked up 64 goals and 153 points. That's the 15th-most points ever scored in a single season. Only three players have ever scored more, and you damn sure know their names. McDavid was worth a staggering 10.2 SPAR for his team in 2022-23. That was good enough to make him... the eighth-best player in the NHL, worth six fewer standings points than the top dog, Juuse Saros.
We could go on. If we gave awards out objectively, a goalie should win the Hart almost every year. That's only been debatable twice since the dawn of the Analytics Era (the 2007-08 season). In 2007-08, Pavel Datsyuk (14.1 SPAR) was the clear-cut MVP over top goalie Henrik Lundqvist (13.1 SPAR). Then, in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, McDavid (9.1 SPAR) finished in a dead heat with Fleury (9.3 SPAR).
The only time a goalie actually won it was 2014-15 when Carey Price (17.3 SPAR!!!) more than doubled up Nick Foligno (8.3 SPAR), the most valuable skater.
All due respect to Kaprizov's superhuman abilities on the ice. Dolla Bill Kirill wows Wild fans on a remarkably consistent basis. He's got as many three-point games (7) as he does games in which he was held without a point. Maybe these kinds of things happen to the Edmonton Oilers or Colorado, but us in Minnesota? Nope, we've never seen this kind of stuff before.
However, if you look at the value Kaprizov adds versus what the Gus Bus brings to the table... Sorry, it's not close.
It's no surprise that Kaprizov leads Wild skaters in SPAR with 2.7. That's a great number, particularly for someone who's missed time. He's not in the league's top spot (tied for 30th, actually), but he's just behind last year's Hart Trophy winner in MacKinnon (2.8).
Then you look at the Gus Bus and see that his 6.9 SPAR is second in the entire NHL (to Hellebuyck's 10.2). And again, you can look at his game logs, do some back-of-the-napkin math on it, and see that it checks out. On October 13, he stole a point on the road at Winnipeg on the second night of a back-to-back. There's zero chance Minnesota wins against the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 3 without Gustavsson holding them to one goal. Throw in those Buffalo and Dallas games, and I found those seven points in the standings right there.
But wait! There's more! It's harder than ever to be a goalie in the NHL. The league-wide save percentage has been trending downward over the past half-decade, and we're now at an Analytics Era-low of .893. Maybe you don't trust Fleury and his .898 save percentage (sv%)... but that's still above league average.
And that means there's been almost no difference between the .931 sv% Gustavsson from 2022-23 and the one we're seeing today. In 2022-23, the league average save percentage was .900, putting the Gus Bus .031 points higher than the average goalie. This year, the difference between Gustavsson and a league-average goalie is only .029. We're so back.
You also can't ignore the sheer consistency Gustavsson has played with. Looking at the imperfect (but telling) Quality Start metric from Hockey Reference, Gustavsson has made a Quality Start in 21 of his 25 outings. That 0.840 QS% is the highest in the NHL, even more so than Hellebuyck (25 QS in 30 starts; 0.800 QS%). Wild fans should feel confident anytime Gustavsson is in front of the cage.
Gustavsson won't get any MVP recognition, and given the volatility of goalies, the Gus Bus might not be able to keep this up all season. But who cares about that? For now, at this moment, Gustavsson has been the difference between a Wild team that was adrift last year and one that is in the top five in the standings. That's an MVP-caliber performance, and we should all pay attention.
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