Filip Gustavsson's Playoff Performance Is Creating A Complicated Future

The Minnesota Wild are tied 2-2 with the heavily favored Vegas Golden Knights in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The series has been one of the most exciting postseasons and featured some intriguing storylines for the Wild. 

Zeev Buium debuted for the Wild and is playing every game. Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov are creating magic with a combined 14 points in four games. However, Philip Gustavsson’s performance was equally crucial. 

Goaltending is one of the most vital aspects of a team’s success in the playoffs. A hot goaltender can steal a series, and one not playing well can sink a team’s postseason. Gustavsson has been up to the task, playing a crucial role in the team’s victories and keeping them in games.

Gustavsson’s consistency is the most impressive part of his performance. It’s just a four-game sample, but their goaltender has been excellent in the most critical four games of the Wild’s season. 

The Swedish netminder ranks fifth in the playoffs with 2.3 goals saved above expected and third in save percentage (.919). He’s also given them a chance to win every game. Game 1 being the only contest in this series where he gave up more goals than expected (3 goals against an expected 2.468)

However, Minnesota’s penalty kill remains its Achilles heel. Vegas has scored four power-play goals on 11 opportunities. While the Wild still needs to fix its penalty kill, it isn’t entirely Gustavsson’s fault. Gustavsson’s play becomes even more impressive outside of special teams. At 5-on-5, Gustavsson leads the postseason in several key categories.

(Source: Moneypuck)

It shouldn’t be surprising that the Wild goaltender is playing some of the best hockey of his season. Gustavsson had a major bounce-back regular season after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign, where the Swede had a .899 save percentage. This year, Gustavsson stayed relatively healthy and backstopped the Wild with a .914 save percentage (fifth in the NHL for goalies that played more than 30 games), ranking eighth in the NHL in five-on-five goals saved above expected. 

The Wild goaltender has had an excellent season, but it didn't seem possible coming into the year. Gustavsson suffered from inconsistency in 2023-24, leading to a disappointing season. His performance led to countless trade rumors in the offseason, and it didn't seem like he was part of the team's long-term plans.

Still, Gustavsson's performance this year, especially in the playoffs, could put the Wild in an interesting situation. Gustavsson has put together two excellent seasons in the last three years. It once seemed like a foregone conclusion that Gustavsson wasn't a long-term option for Minnesota. Now, he's making a case that he might be the team's future workhorse goalie.

One of the most impressive aspects of Gustavsson's strong season was the sheer workload the Wild expected him to carry. Marc-Andre Fleury, 40, was serviceable as a backup but could no longer play large chunks of the season. Minnesota entered the season hoping for a three-goalie rotation with Jesper Wallstedt, but that didn’t materialize.

That left Gustavsson to start 58 games, tenth-most in the NHL. His previous career high in starts was 43. Add in the couple of games he started in the Four Nations Faceoff, and Gustavsson played significantly more hockey than he has at any point in his career. 

Gustavsson is proving he's a dependable force for the team, especially when the games matter most. That's great news, but it also leaves Minnesota with some questions. The first is Gustavsson's future with the team. 

He has one more year left on his contract with a $3.75 million cap hit next year and is set to hit unrestricted free agency after that. If Gustavsson continues to play like this, he'd earn a significant raise. What could that contract look like? 

That's a longer conversation, but a decent starting point might be Linus Ullmark. 

Ullmark is also a Swedish goalie who backstopped the team in the Four Nations Faceoff. He signed a four-year contract with the Ottawa Senators worth an average annual value of $8.25 million. The Wild could afford that with the rising cap, but it would be a considerable investment. 

An even bigger issue might be how Gustavsson solidifying his spot with the team may affect Jesper Wallstedt’s development. Minnesota’s 2021 first-round pick entered the season as one of the team's top prospects. It looked like Wallstedt would get time in the NHL next season when the team told him to get an apartment in the Twin Cities instead of Iowa. 

That didn't materialize for the talented young goaltender; Wallstedt only appeared in two NHL games and had a .843 save percentage. He didn't fare much better in Iowa, owning a .879 save percentage in 27 games. Wallstedt is only just 22 years old. The team has high hopes for him, and he's still in the mix to become the Wild's future starting goaltender. Still, they can’t rely on him to be a full-time NHL goaltender next season.

If the Wild want to keep Gustavsson after his performance this season, it could greatly impact Wallstedt's future in Minnesota. It’s not a novel situation. Several teams have parted ways with their young and promising goaltenders due to not having a dependable starter in recent years. 

The Nashville Predators chose Juuse Saros over Yaroslav Askarov and ultimately shipped its former 11th-overall pick to the San Jose Sharks this year. Similarly, Spencer Knight was poised to be the Florida Panthers' starting goaltender of the future until he had difficulty climbing the depth chart. Now he's backstopping the Chicago Blackhawks. 

If Wallstedt becomes disinterested in being a backup goaltender, a similar situation could happen in Minnesota.

Of course, Minnesota should continue to foster Wallstedt’s development. Fortunately for the Wild and Wallstedt, most teams have two starting goalies who split duties in net. Gustavsson started many games this year, but he doesn't have to in the future. If Wallstedt and Gustavsson work out, the team could look like the Toronto Maple Leafs, who employ Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. 

Stolarz (33 starts) and Woll (41 starts) split games this year almost equally for Toronto, and both made significant contributions. A two-headed monster of Gustavsson and a fully realized Wallstedt would be a massive benefit for the Wild. 

Everyone’s focus is on how the Wild perform in the playoffs, but Gustavsson's performance is leading to some inevitable questions about Minnesota’s future in net. If Gustavsson continues his performance, he has proven that he deserves to be a part of it.