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  • Filip Gustavsson's Extension Is A Perfect Balancing Act


    Image courtesy of Bruce Fedyck - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    After taking care of Kirill Kaprizov to the tune of eight years and $136 million, the Minnesota Wild decided they weren't quite done with their offseason checklist. Instead of resting on their laurels, they worked quickly to lock down their starting goalie, Filip Gustavsson, with a five-year, $34 million deal.

    It's perhaps an acknowledgement that if their superstar scores 50 or even 60 goals, it just takes a little instability in net to thwart a team. Look at the 2023-34 New Jersey Devils. They had 112 points the previous season, but their revolving door of Vitek Vanecek, Nico Daws, Akira Schmid, Jake Allen, and Kaapo Kähkönen kept them in seventh place in their division. It didn't matter that they had Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt as part of a loaded roster.

    Looking at the Wild's steadfast defense, it's fair to say that Gustavsson's .914 save percentage -- sixth in the NHL last year -- isn't entirely reflective of his talent level. Still, he proved last year that he's capable of being a workhorse, starting-caliber goalie. Gustavsson started 58 games, turning in 40 "Quality Starts," which turned out to be the fifth-highest percentage in the league. That's a level of reliability the Wild simply couldn't walk from.

    Especially when you look at the alternatives. Minnesota drafted Jesper Wallstedt in 2021 to be the team's "Goalie of the Future." Turns out, the future isn't ready yet. The Wild were hoping to get Wallstedt games last season, but a combination of salary cap issues and his AHL struggles meant he only drew in for two starts. With Gustavsson set to become a free agent next summer, the Wild didn't have time to properly evaluate Wallstedt's readiness to take over starting next year. 

    Normally, Wallstedt would be out of time. We've seen two of his highly-touted goalie prospect contemporaries -- Spencer Knight (2020 Draft) and Yaroslav Askarov (2021) -- get squeezed out of their team's future after their teams committed long-term to another goalie. Three days after the Florida Panthers drafted Knight, they signed Sergei Bobrovsky to eight years and $80 million. Askarov asked for a trade from the Nashville Predators after they locked in Juuse Saros to an eight-year extension.

    That may still be Wallstedt's fate. After all, the Panthers weren't forced to move on from Knight; they traded him as a major piece of the Seth Jones trade, helping them win a Stanley Cup last year. The Wild could choose to leverage Wallstedt in a similar fashion. However, the beauty of Gustavsson's extension is that Minnesota secured long-term stability in net while retaining options.

    Minnesota can simply have Gustavsson take the reins as the starting goaltender for the foreseeable future, and that's not a bad spot to be in. His career save percentage is .913, putting him even with former Wild players Marc-Andre Fleury and Devan Dubnyk through age 26. Once you adjust to the league average save percentage, as Stathead does with their Goals Allowed Percentage- which sets 100 as league average, Gustavsson fares very well.

    GA%- through Age-26, Since 2007-08, minimum 90 starts:

    1. Igor Shesterkin, 78
    2. Tuukka Rask, 82
    3. Juuse Saros, 90
    4. Jaroslav Halák, 91
    5. Andrei Vasilevskiy, 91
    6. FILIP GUSTAVSSON, 91
    7. Braden Holtby, 92
    8. Jake Oettinger, 92
    9. Logan Thompson, 93
    10. Josh Gibson, 94

    Even if you suspect his numbers make him look better than he is, he still is an above-average workhorse. The hockey equivalent of an innings-eating pitcher, if you will. Again, looking at the Devils, this time in 2024-25, that type of "innings-eater" was all they needed to get back into the playoff picture. 

    The five-year term also comes in handy here. Gustavsson's extension will only take him through his age-32 season. Wild fans saw Devan Dubnyk start to fall off a cliff in his age-33 year, and Niklas Bäckström become unusable at age-34. If Gustavsson winds up taking a similar path on the aging curve, Minnesota should be getting out of this deal just in time.

    The term also means they don't have to hard-commit to Gustavsson at the expense of Wallstedt. Wallstedt's contract takes him through the summer of 2027, at which point he'll become a Restricted Free Agent. However, once that ends, the Wild still have him under team control through 2030, another three years after that. By comparison, that's only one year of team control less than they have with Gustavsson. 

    When Wallstedt's contract is up, he'll most likely be in position to get a bridge deal. Barring injury, Gustavsson is a safe bet to take the majority of starts this season, and unless Wallstedt is markedly better, it's hard to see him forcing anything more than a 50/50 split in 2026-27. If the Wild can lock Wallstedt into an affordable rate through 2029, they're in a great spot beyond that.

    By 2029, Minnesota should have more than enough information on whether they want to have Wallstedt be The Guy going forward. If they do, they have two big advantages to avoid having Gustavsson squeeze Wallstedt out prematurely. The first is Gustavsson's trade clauses. He'll have a No-Move Clause through the summer of 2028, which turns into a 15-team no-trade clause afterward. That's a fair bit of flexibility to move on if the Wild feel the need to. 

    The other advantage is the sheer affordability of Gustavsson's deal. That doesn't appear to be the case right away, but with the cap rising, we have to recalibrate what "$6.8 million" means. Gustavsson is set to be the 10th-highest-paid goalie next season, and his contract will only represent 6.5% of the salary cap -- roughly the equivalent of $5.8 million last year. If there's a time when Minnesota has to pay Wallstedt like a 1B goalie, they can do that without spending too much of their resources on the goalie position.

    The most important thing that the Wild could do was guarantee themselves a decent floor in net for the long term, and Gustavsson's contract does exactly that. That makes the extension worth it by itself. But the real value add for Minnesota was that they were able to do that without sacrificing their flexibility at the goalie position. They can either commit to Gustavsson long-term or establish a succession plan for Wallstedt, and they should be able to make that decision on their own terms. As important as the AAV and term are to evaluating contracts, it's hidden benefits like this that can turn a deal into a home run.

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    As much as I hate to say it. I think this is a pretty good contact. Very fair price, I kinda thought it would be higher. Honestly this could be viewed as a win/win contract. 

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    The other advantage is the sheer affordability of Gustavsson's deal. That doesn't appear to be the case right away, but with the cap rising, we have to recalibrate what "$6.8 million" means. Gustavsson is set to be the 10th-highest-paid goalie next season, and his contract will only represent 6.5% of the salary cap -- roughly the equivalent of $5.8 million last year. If there's a time when Minnesota has to pay Wallstedt like a 1B goalie, they can do that without spending too much of their resources on the goalie position.

    This is the part that I find very interesting. Capflation is difficult to get used to, but Tony put it in pretty good terms. So, in the year after, when the cap goes up again, I suspect that $6.8m is the new $5m in '27. It's a bit of an overpay in year 1, but after that, it appears that Goose will give us some real value in the position. 

    Thanks, Tony, I've changed my stance on the contract. 

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    One thing that is going to be interesting to watch is how the salary cap predicter algorithms change with the new rising cap. 

    I also think this makes the bridge deals more important, to get value out of that younger player and then give him his big contract. I can see the wonderkids pushing for a big deal out of their ELC, but, resisting it and bridging seems like the best way of getting value. 

    While bridging may become more teams' policy, this makes being able to defend against an offersheet more important. This is going to be a real battle between GMs and agents. As the GMs try to real in the salaries, the agents will be pushing for that big deal after the ELC. 

    For the Wild, the real test, I think, will be Buium. The rest I think we'll be able to bridge with little problems. I'm really hoping that Yurov becomes like that too, which would mean that he's playing really well. 

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    35 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    For the Wild, the real test, I think, will be Buium.

    Bill's going to have to pull off the wizardry he used to sign Boldy, Faber, Ek & Gus to the deals they're on.

    Disclaimer: I am in no way saying Zeev will make it to Makar's level at this point & time.

    Caps going up which is good but if he starts looking like Makar-lite then his ask is going to be really high.

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    I think this signing was premature.  Wally is only 22 yo and is coming into his own.  Wally is an inch taller and 30 pounds heavier than Gus.  I would bet that is 30 extra pounds of muscle.  Given a bit of time for Wally to get acclimated to the N I think he will out perform Gus.  If Wally fell short BG could have signed Gus later in the season.  If Wally did step up and perform better BG could have signed Wally for 5 to 8 years at a lower value.

    A little patience could have paid a lot of dividends.  I think BG jumped too quickly.  If they had both played well this year one of them would have been really good trade bait.  Now that trade bait is limited to Wally.

    I get the cap is going up.  But that doesn't mean the Wild should be foolish with the cap and the signing could still have happened in the next 6 months.  

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    Waiting to sign Gus could have meant the price went up past what would have made sense.  This isn't a Rossi situation where the Wild lucked out and no one overpaid early to snatch him away.  There are no shortage of suitors for goaltending.  Every team wants or needs someone somewhere. 

    Wally could be a piece to a huge haul, but he is under team control.  Wally could be the next Swayman, but if he is just another Georgie, well fuck that.  2/3rds of the time, Gus has shown Top 10-15 goalie skill with this roster, while we have nothing but hope that Wally follows suit.

    Gus will likely fall off way faster than Wallstedt will, but it's not like Gus is immovable.  Guerin got those 15-team years fur just this kind of safety valve.  Wallstedt stays under team.control regardless.

    Nothing premature about signing low on someone who has #1 chops.  If this was higher years or term, I'd get it, but this is flexible thinking by a team that hasn't had much.  Knowing the team could develop in many different ways is kinda exciting.

     

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    3 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Waiting to sign Gus could have meant the price went up past what would have made sense.  This isn't a Rossi situation where the Wild lucked out and no one overpaid early to snatch him away.  There are no shortage of suitors for goaltending.  Every team wants or needs someone somewhere. 

    Wally could be a piece to a huge haul, but he is under team control.  Wally could be the next Swayman, but if he is just another Georgie, well fuck that.  2/3rds of the time, Gus has shown Top 10-15 goalie skill with this roster, while we have nothing but hope that Wally follows suit.

    Gus will likely fall off way faster than Wallstedt will, but it's not like Gus is immovable.  Guerin got those 15-team years fur just this kind of safety valve.  Wallstedt stays under team.control regardless.

    Nothing premature about signing low on someone who has #1 chops.  If this was higher years or term, I'd get it, but this is flexible thinking by a team that hasn't had much.  Knowing the team could develop in many different ways is kinda exciting.

    It isn't a bad signing.   Gus is a known commodity... and I agree with you... Wally is currently just a hopeful player for us at this time.

    I think BG should have exercised some patience to see what Wally can do.   We know what we have in Gus.  A little patience may have shown us who the better goalie actually is.... That is an unanswered question.  We have 3 seasons with Gus now before the 15 team no trade list kicks in.  The odds of us keeping Wally if he plays well is slim.  Even if Wally plays better than Gus it will be difficult to keep Wally.

    A little patience may have revealed a better solution...or not.

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    If Wallstedt is still RFA, there's little to nothing he can do except play better than Gus and force the issue.  Same with any of the rookies.  If they don't take strides, the ability to send them out for TDL players is finally a lever Guerin can play.

    I do not want that.  Rather than pay a 33 year old Panarin or give out a ransom for Larkin or Thompson, I'd like all players in the system to do that instead and pay them to do it for a decade.

    But the team needs to improve in many areas. Knowing Gus gives you a known chance to steal games is probably worth paying. Wallstedt MAY be that, better, or worse.

    Such is life of competition.  What have you done for me lately?

     

     

     

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    15 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    If Wallstedt is still RFA, there's little to nothing he can do except play better than Gus and force the issue.  Same with any of the rookies.  If they don't take strides, the ability to send them out for TDL players is finally a lever Guerin can play.

    I do not want that.  Rather than pay a 33 year old Panarin or give out a ransom for Larkin or Thompson, I'd like all players in the system to do that instead and pay them to do it for a decade.

    But the team needs to improve in many areas. Knowing Gus gives you a known chance to steal games is probably worth paying. Wallstedt MAY be that, better, or worse.

    Such is life of competition.  What have you done for me lately?

    The nice thing is we still have Wally for this year and the next before we need to worry about it.  The Gus signing will certainly remove any nervous feelings about needing to find a #1 role.  I'm nit picking a bit in my prior comments.  I would just have been a bit more patient in the signing.

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    1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I think BG should have exercised some patience to see what Wally can do.   We know what we have in Gus.  A little patience may have shown us who the better goalie actually is.... That is an unanswered question.  We have 3 seasons with Gus now before the 15 team no trade list kicks in.  The odds of us keeping Wally if he plays well is slim.  Even if Wally plays better than Gus it will be difficult to keep Wally.

    Gustavsson is clearly better than Wallstedt right now based upon team Sweden decisions and last season's performances. Guerin isn't making the decisions blind. The goalie coaches and his full staff have a pretty good idea of where Gus is at and where Wallstedt is at.

    Best case scenario is that Wallstedt makes it a true battle for the top spot a couple years down the road, but if they waited to sign Gus as an unrestricted free agent, they might have been forced into an $8M per year deal.

    There is certainly downside risk of injury or a drop in play, but the Wild saw how Gustavsson showed up to camp this year, and if they are confident in giving him the long-term deal, I suspect he's looking quite good to them.

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    2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

    We have 3 seasons with Gus now before the 15 team no trade list kicks in.  The odds of us keeping Wally if he plays well is slim.  Even if Wally plays better than Gus it will be difficult to keep Wally.

    Why? 

    Barring injury, The Wall's opportunities will be as a backup goaltender this year and likely next. He won't be due a tremendous raise unless he somehow is the playoff goalie and takes us to the SCF which I would guess is a remote chance. 

    The most likely plan is that we bridge The Wall at around $3m for a couple of years and by then he should have grown into 1b. That's when, if he is as advertised, he gets a large contract, the Wild bring in another cheap backup and someone gets Goose on a reasonable deal. 

    So, really here what we are doing is guarding against a Goose injury where The Wall takes the net and doesn't give it back. If that were to happen, Goose is still on a reasonable contract and can waive his NMC if he'd rather be #1 somewhere else. 

    Track record suggests that Goose may, indeed, develop an injury and be out for 2-3 weeks. These usually happen around January where there's a long Olympic break. I would suggest that he may not miss that much Wild time. 

    Also, with 41 games through December 31st, the Wild will be splitting time with both goalies, I'd say pretty evenly. I'd be looking at Goose getting about 25 starts. 

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    This is a great contract for both Gus and the Wild.  I especially like that we can trade him after year 2 (or is it 3).

    The Wilds system creates good goalies. My prediction is that Wallstedt will develop into a premium option and we can trade Gus when Wallstedt is ready to take the net full time. 

    By then Gus will be a better than average goalie on a great contract. 

    If Wallstedt doesn't develop we still have Gus on a great contract.

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Why? 

    Barring injury, The Wall's opportunities will be as a backup goaltender this year and likely next. He won't be due a tremendous raise unless he somehow is the playoff goalie and takes us to the SCF which I would guess is a remote chance. 

    The most likely plan is that we bridge The Wall at around $3m for a couple of years and by then he should have grown into 1b. That's when, if he is as advertised, he gets a large contract, the Wild bring in another cheap backup and someone gets Goose on a reasonable deal. 

    Even if Wallstedt plays like he deserves a long-term deal, it's not like Guerin is afraid to squeeze young RFAs into taking a bridge. 

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    7 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

    Even if Wallstedt plays like he deserves a long-term deal, it's not like Guerin is afraid to squeeze young RFAs into taking a bridge. 

    That's a good point.  BG has done well dealing with RFAs.

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