By Justin Hein -
Typically, goaltenders won’t speak candidly to the media. They don’t want their opposing players and coaches to know what they’re thinking, so they’re typically tight-lipped and polite in any interview setting.
Filip Gustavsson is not a typical goaltender.
John King of the Wild on 7th podcast recently called him “the un-goalie goalie.” The Athletic documented Gustavsson’s unconventional nature in an extensive article last summer. Quotes from Gustavsson, his teammates, and his coaches covered his many idiosyncrasies, including in-game brain puzzles and his hatred for the iPhone. By all accounts, it goes beyond the usual goalie-brain common in hockey culture.
So it’s no surprise that the Swedish net-minder offered up an unusually insightful peek into his mind once again. This time, he explained exactly why he’s performed so much better this season than last.
The answer is trust.
In a recent article, Michael Russo reported that “Gustavsson said when he watched video of himself over the offseason, he didn’t realize how aggressive he was becoming with cross-crease slides.” In the same article, Gustavsson said he was “coming three feet outside the crease whenever they came through the blue lines.”
In other words, Gustavsson was trying to compensate for poor defense with aggressive goaltending. That’s not run-of-the-mill personal accountability. Gustavsson is freely and publicly explaining how he improved his game.
Last year, he reacted to every play as if the defense was about to make a mistake. In a sense, he was trying to do the defense’s job for them. Gustavsson wanted to take away high-danger chances before they appeared, challenging shots from way outside the goal crease and diving across the goalmouth.
When goaltenders challenge too far out of their net, their opponent can drive into the slot and pass to a perimeter player as the defense collapses. If the goaltender is too close to the original chance, they’ll be out of position to save the second opportunity. The defense will also be out of position to defend the pass because their top priority is to protect high-danger areas.
That should lead to below-average goaltending, which is exactly what Gustavsson posted in 2023-24. According to MoneyPuck.com’s expected goals (xG) model, he was remarkably effective when opponents shot from high-danger areas but posted the worst numbers of his career against all other opportunities.
At five-on-five, Gustavsson’s minus-15.7 low-danger Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) was around the 20th-percentile of all goaltenders in the NHL last year. MoneyPuck defines a low-danger chance as any shot attempt with less than an 8% chance to score, and they make up about 75% of shots. They come from distance, bad angles, and with very little movement. In other words, they’re exactly the type of shots defenses want to give up. Letting those in is a back-breaker.
On average, low-danger chances account for 33% of NHL goals. In 2023-24, 41% of Gustavsson’s goals came on low-danger chances. A team can’t build a defensive identity in front of that.
Turn the page to Gustavsson’s offseason self-study, and his role in the team’s bounce-back season is obvious.
The Wild have been spectacular in the defensive zone this year. Across the NHL, Minnesota has given up the second-fewest xG per minute at even strength. That’s even though the puck is in Minnesota’s defensive zone 40% of the game per NHL EDGE -- just an average mark across the league.
They’ve done this by keeping opposing chances to the perimeter. MoneyPuck’s model is designed to break down 33% of shot danger into low-danger, medium-danger, and high-danger. Against Minnesota, high-danger chances comprise only 24% of all even-strength chances. That’s the fourth-best mark in the league.
Minnesota did nearly as well last year in the above defensive metrics, but Gustavsson’s saving results were drastically different. Perhaps you could explain that away with goal-tending voodoo or small sample sizes. However, Gustavsson came out and explained the difference already.
He’s backing into his net a bit further and letting his teammates defend high-danger areas. They’re extremely good at it, and it’s working to great effect. Last season, Gustavsson’s five-on-five goals allowed per minute ranked 49th out of 64 qualified goaltenders. This year, he ranks second.
It’s an interesting reminder that goaltending and defense can never truly be statistically isolated. As humans, we are tempted to objectively measure every goaltender against his peers because it would provide a statistical ranking of every goaltender in the league. In reality, keeping the puck out of the net is a six-man job, and each must play his part.
The goaltender is the only player on his team who plays 60 minutes, which is a strong argument to call goaltenders the most valuable position. Even if only 40% of the game is played in the defensive zone, that’s still 24 minutes -- more than nearly every skater in the league. Not to mention, teams don’t need to overspend on skilled goal scorers if their goaltender can stop everything.
The problem with that reasoning is that many Stanley Cup championship teams in the salary cap era have been built on cheap goaltending. For every Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky, there’s an Adin Hill or a Darcy Kuemper. These low-budget options aren’t just team-friendly contracts or rookie deals. They’re proof that spending on defense keeps the puck out of the net just as well as paying for goaltenders.
The 2010 book Stumbling on Wins found that the name on the back of a goaltender’s jersey only explains 30% of variance in raw save percentage. In other words, the rest of their performance is explained by the defense in front of them, the shooters they face, and puck luck.
Filip Gustavsson and the team in front of him live in the sweet spot of all those factors. All six Wild players have found a system that maximizes all six of them. Isolate the goaltending from the defense or vice-versa, and each looks good. Compound those two factors together, and it’s elite.
Last season, Gustavsson tried to take over games and carry the team, which left the Wild exposed even on his and the defense’s best plays. Over the summer, he re-set his mind to be part of the system rather than the focal point. He focused on conditioning and keeping positioned to make the easy saves.
It’s given the Wild their identity back.
It can’t be overstated how much life Gustavsson has brought back to this franchise after it was smothered out last year. He seems to have returned to his 2022-23 form, which had his name whispered in Vezina conversations.
This year, voters should speak his name out loud.
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