By Tony Abbott -
No Kirill Kaprizov? No problem.
At least, that was the case with Marco Rossi for a while. When the Minnesota Wild's superstar winger went down with injury just before Christmas, he left his center in a tricky spot. Rossi was enjoying a true breakout season, with 12 goals and 28 points through 35 games. Those were impressive numbers. Still, how long would they last without Kaprizov's ability to set up and finish golden scoring chances?
Improbably, Rossi shone even brighter without Kaprizov. From December 27 to February 25, Rossi had nine goals and 22 points in 23 games -- nearly being a point-per-game player. On February 25, the sophomore center was on-pace for a 30-goal, 71-point season.
But after two months and the injury of power-play presence Joel Eriksson Ek, we finally saw the Wild's losses catch up to Rossi. Starting February 27, he scored only one goal and had five points in 17 games. What happened? Has he struggled with being one of two or three forwards Minnesota can count on for reliable offense? Is he just getting exhausted down the stretch?
"I think some of the detail things and the focus things can be a little bit better, along with our team," John Hynes told The Athletic on Monday. "I think it’s kind of seeped into [our] game just a tad... like it’s not bad, but there’s a little bit of a missed assignment. It’s just off in those areas."
However, Rossi showed signs of life against the New York Rangers on Wednesday. There are things to nitpick about his game. He was a minus-two and went 1-for-14 in the faceoff dot. Still, he made an impact offensively. Rossi scored the goal that tied the game at 4-4, ultimately delivering the Wild a point. He also was a consistent offensive threat, launching five shots on goal, his most since December 31.
Is there more to come? Looking under the hood, the signs indicate Rossi is getting back on track.
Hynes might be noting a lack of details in Rossi's game, but that hasn't stopped him from dictating the game's flow better than his teammates. During Rossi's 17-game slump, he's been Minnesota's best player in controlling the expected goal share (59.6%) at 5-on-5. The Wild are below 50% overall and 44.1% whenever Rossi isn't on the ice at 5-on-5.
Rossi was outscored at 5-on-5 (6 to 7) during that stretch. Still, he was well above the Wild's average. Minnesota has scored just 38.9% of the goals when Rossi's not on the ice at 5-on-5. That's hardly surprising, considering the sheer number of injuries on the team. However, it's worth noting that they've had much bigger problems than Rossi.
Particularly since Rossi has arguably been Minnesota's best player in generating and suppressing offense. Only Marcus Foligno has more on-ice expected goals per hour at 5-on-5 (2.63) than Rossi (2.58). Looking at 5-on-5 defense, Rossi has allowed just 1.75 expected goals per hour, which leads the Wild.
That's often while taking on the toughest assignments on the team. In New Jersey on Monday, he faced 11 head-to-head minutes with Nico Hischier. Rossi played the Devils' two-way star to a draw, getting the better of the play. He outscored the hulking Tage Thompson's line 2-0 in over nine 5-on-5 minutes. Rossi outscored Nathan MacKinnon 1-0 in 10-and-a-half head-to-head minutes. You can see a similar story play out in games against Anze Kopitar and Robert Thomas.
Rossi's biggest problems during this stretch may be related. The biggest is that his on-ice shooting percentage during that 17-game stretch is 5.85%. That's about 30% below the NHL's average of 8.92%, and that trend is probably not going to continue. The other related problem is that Rossi's simply not shooting enough.
During his first 58 games, Rossi shot 102 times on 196 attempts (or 1.76 shots on 3.78 attempts per game). In the following 17 games, he took just 20 shots on 40 attempts (1.18 on 2.35 per game). Rossi probably wasn't shooting enough in the first place, and six shots every five games is definitely not enough.
Rossi's shown in the past two seasons that he is great at getting high-danger chances. It's a big reason why he has an 18.1 shooting percentage this year... and that's not a fluke. His expected goal total (22.2) and actual goals (23) are almost identical. That suggests he's got more to give with his shot, and if he can do this well at close range, it'd probably help his (and the Wild's) cause to let it fly a bit more on mid-range shots.
The good news is, whatever the reason for this slump is, help is on the way. Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek should be back soon, giving Rossi his superstar winger and a center to support him in handling some of the toughest assignments. Combine Rossi's two-way excellence and Kaprizov's finishing ability, and that's a recipe for success. If Rossi can start heating up in time for the playoffs, that will make things much more interesting for the Wild heading into the first round.
*Head-to-head data via Natural Stat Trick. All other data via Evolving-Hockey.
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