By Tony Abbott -
Very suddenly, it seems like the Minnesota Wild could have a little bit of wiggle room at the trade deadline. If Joel Eriksson Ek's injury keeps him out until the end of the regular season, the Wild could take advantage of LTIR and free up $5.25 million of cap space. That would change things from the status quo, where Minnesota is virtually unable to make a trade, to a scenario where the Wild could be actual players.
As a result, The Athletic is daring to speculate about the Wild landing a center. You already know one of the names: native Minnesotan Brock Nelson. The second name is, at least on paper, much more intriguing.
Dylan Cozens of the Buffalo Sabres.
It's easy to see why the Wild would be interested in The Workhorse From Whitehorse. He's 24-years-old, and right-shot centermen who've scored 30 goals are in short supply. Since the 2014-15 season, there are only 17 players who've scored 30 goals and won 500 faceoffs in a season. Only 13 of them are active. It also doesn't hurt that Cozens has the kind of frame (6-foot-3, 207 pounds) the Wild seem to covet down the middle.
It's easy to see Cozens as a cornerstone for a franchise's future. However, a deeper look reveals that Cozens is a substantial risk for any potential suitor -- and that's being generous.
The big thing to consider with any breakout season is whether it's sustainable. Is the new success born from genuine growth from a player, or is there some smoke-and-mirrors happening?
At first glance, Cozens' 2022-23 season seems like a breakthrough. He shot 14.7%, which is a touch high. However, he scored 31 goals on nearly 27 expected goals, which doesn't seem outrageous by any means. Worst-case scenario, Cozens seemed ready to settle into the 25- to 30-goal range, which is terrific for a center.
Since then, Cozens has just 29 goals in 136 games -- an 18-goal 82-game pace. The thing is, you'd expect to see a significant drop in expected goals, but that's not entirely accurate. Last year's 18 goals came from 23.6 expected goals. This season, he's on pace for 16 goals on 21.9 expected. The chances are down, sure, but not back-to-back-sub-20-goal seasons down.
Looking at his young career, it seems like Cozens might not be a particularly talented shooter. That 14.7% from his 31-goal season is a definite outlier. Take out that season, and his career shooting percentage drops from 10.1% -- about league-average -- to 8.4%, which is pretty abysmal. For context, fourth-line grinder Brandon Duhaime has a career 8.2 shooting percentage.
It's important to note that talented players sometimes take a while to flip a switch and get higher-percentage shots. In Nathan MacKinnon's first four seasons, he only shot 8.1%, and he's shot 11.1% with one of the highest shot volumes in the NHL ever since.
Twenty-four isn't too old for the light to come on, either. Joel Eriksson Ek shot an absurdly low 6.8% through his age-23 season, which is lower than, for example, Jared Spurgeon's career mark. But once he figured to get to the net, his game flourished, and his shooting percentage has been at 10.1 ever since.
Maybe Cozens just needs to have something click. But even if that's the case, there are still two major red flags for the young center.
The most obvious hole is his defense, which is close to the bottom of the barrel. According to Evolving-Hockey's Goals Above Replacement metric, 432 forwards have played 1000-plus minutes in the past three seasons, and Cozens' defensive impact per minute ranks 402nd. Cozens is a dead-ringer defensively for Cole Caufield, except that Caufield has at least scored 33.7 goals per 82 games over his career.
Cozens has scored 19 goals for every 82 games since joining the NHL.
And look, you don't have to care about defense 100%. If you're talking about someone like Caufield or Kyle Connor, you'll take the good with the bad. Their offensive prowess -- particularly on the power play -- helps coaches and fans live much happier with any defensive lapses on their own end. If Cozens isn't a stout two-way guy, he can still be a big, right-shot, goal-scoring threat down the middle. Eriksson Ek can handle the defense and let Cozens do his thing.
The problem here is that Cozens isn't some major power play threat. In fact, he's one of the least productive forwards in the NHL on the power play.
Over Cozens' four full NHL seasons, he's logged 670 minutes on the power play. He's one of 145 forwards who have 500-plus minutes during that time. Cozens ranks 133rd in goals per hour (0.99) and 122nd in points per hour (3.58). That's atrocious. There isn't a meaningful distinction between Cozens' numbers and Marcus Johansson's power play stats over that same time (0.92 G/60; 3.70 P/60).
Again, Cozens is young enough that you can guess he'll have some room to grow after a change of scenery -- but how much are we talking about?
Cozens is making $7.1 million per season, which will look increasingly better as the cap increases. Still, the player has to perform, especially because taking on someone like Cozens will surely cost a top prospect. I could potentially be the de facto "Christmas Morning" addition, with a trade taking the place of free agency. If the Wild get Cozens, they might not be able to do anything else, at least not without trading a more productive player like Matt Boldy or Marco Rossi.
Maybe the Wild would be inclined to roll the dice on Cozens. There are absolutely upsides to such a move. Getting a player at this stage in their career is better than getting an older player with similar defensive warts (looking at Brock Boeser, perhaps).
Cozens' ability to play the pivot is attractive, but those red flags are bright. If a change of scenery isn't the missing piece to unlock a new level of skill from Cozens, the Wild might be stuck with another half-decade-long albatross in his contract.
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