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  • Don't Worry (Too Much) About Kaprizov Aging


    Image courtesy of Matt Krohn - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The State of Hockey has spent this week in jubilation over Kirill Kaprizov staying with the Minnesota Wild for the next nine years. The last time Wild fans had so much to celebrate from a signing was back in July 2012, when the team inked the infamous Ryan Suter and Zach Parise contracts.

    Note how they're "infamous" now.

    On Day 1, those contracts carried a poison pill: Their absurdly long term. By the end of the deal, Suter was 40 and playing a depth role with the St. Louis Blues, Parise was retired from hockey, and both had been bought out for four years. All of this was entirely predictable, even to the parties involved in signing the contract at the time. It was just a problem for a different general manager and a different decade of fans.

    That's the NHL's version of The Winner's Curse. You're signing on to most free agents with the understanding that you're paying for production in the first few years, and the deal is probably going to look a lot worse in their final years. As Minnesotan philosopher Mitch Hedberg once said, "I'm not gonna stop doing something because of what happens at the end."

    By the time Kaprizov's contract is over, it'll be the year 2034, and he will have just finished his age-36 season, turning 37 years old. Wild fans have seen old-timers produce, of course. Mats Zuccarello posted 54 points in his age-37 season last year, and Andrew Brunette even had a bit left in the tank at that age. However, we can point to numerous examples of things going wrong long before a player reaches that age.

    Dany Heatley might be the ultimate example. The Wild traded for the two-time 50-goal scorer before his age-31 season, and he stepped into Minnesota's lineup and immediately scored... 24 goals and 53 points. It got worse from there, dropping to 21 points in just 36 games at 32, then a paltry 12 goals and 21 points in 76 games at 33. 

    When the bottom falls out on players, their production can collapse instantly. Jason Pominville went from 30 goals in his age-31 season to 18, then 11 over the following two years. Thomas Vanek was still productive on the power play during his age-31-and-32 campaigns in St. Paul, but was utterly unplayable in almost every other situation.

    Wild fans have been burned by long-term (and even not-so-long-term, in the case of Heatley and Vanek) deals to aging stars going sour. Even so, it seems misguided to buy into fears that the Kaprizov deal will fall off so dramatically. Why is that?

    For one, when you look at most of these players -- Parise, Suter, Vanek, and Pominville -- you'll see that they didn't have nearly as much room to fall as Kaprizov does. Kaprizov stands out as a cut above the rest in terms of sheer production and is among the elite of the elite when it comes to players over the last 20 seasons. 

    Points Per Game, Ages 23-27, Since 2005-06:

    1. Connor McDavid, 1.70
    2. Leon Draisaitl, 1.46
    3. Nathan MacKinnon, 1.36 (1.361)
    4. Sidney Crosby, 1.36 (1.355)
    5. Nikita Kucherov, 1.31
    6. Auston Matthews, 1.27
    7. Mitch Marner, 1.26
    8. David Pastrňák, 1.25
    9. Mikko Rantanen, 1.23
    10. Kirill Kaprizov, 1.21

    All due respect to someone like Zach Parise, his output was "only" 0.93 points per game in that age span. When his play started dipping, he went from being a 62-point player (over an 82-game pace) in his first four years in Minnesota to being a 52-point player over his last five. Kaprizov is starting out as a 99-point player.

    It'd be nice to see how these elite producers aged, but other than Sidney Crosby, none of the top-10 have really entered their mid-30s. Kucherov is the oldest of the remaining nine, and he's just 32 and still putting up MVP-type numbers.

    The list being dominated so much by younger players reflects a bit of an offensive explosion in recent years. So let's take a look at the top-scoring players of Crosby's generation, and maybe a half-step behind them, looking at this same category from 2000-01 to 2015-16:

    Points Per Game, Ages 23-27, 2000-01 to 2015-16:

    1. Sidney Crosby, 1.36
    2. Joe Thornton, 1.30
    3. Alex Ovechkin, 1.19 (1.194)
    4. Evgeni Malkin, 1.19 (1.188)
    5. Dany Heatley, 1.18
    6. Marián Gáborík, 1.11
    7. Patrick Kane, 1.06
    8. Jason Spezza, 1.05 (1.054)
    9. Vincent Lecavalier, 1.05 (1.052)
    10. Henrik Zetterberg, 1.04

    Those were, more or less, the equivalents of Kaprizov and his peers from that generation. We know how all of their careers have played out through their age-36 seasons. So now let's look at how those players aged, looking at ages 28 through 32 (correlating to Kaprizov's final year of his deal, plus the first half of his extension), and ages 33 through 36 (correlating to the final half of Kaprizov's extension).

    Screenshot 2025-10-03 at 2.07.13 PM.png

    We see a few different paths, with Kane and Malkin having little-to-no dropoff, and Heatley and Gaborik falling off by almost a third. On the whole, however, the combined total of these ten players suggests an expected decrease of about 15.6% in points per game. If we apply that to Kaprizov, we can expect his 82-game pace to go from being a 99-point player to falling into the 84-point range. Perhaps not Hart Trophy-worthy, but over a point-per-game.

    It's also interesting that most players on this list were often healthier in that age bracket than they had been before, though that might be a reflection of a small sample size.

    As expected, the ages when Kaprizov will be in the back half of his deal are much rougher for these star players.

    Screenshot 2025-10-03 at 2.29.03 PM.png

    We can see massive drop-offs from four players on the list: Heatley, Gaborík, Spezza, and Lecavalier. Among those four, only Spezza remained in the league by age-36, and Heatley didn't even make it to his age-35 season. 

    Those are the worst-case scenarios, but when you look at the overall picture, the decline isn't quite as stark. The group's overall points per game only drops around 15.5%, nearly identical to the drop between their ages 23-27 production to 28-32. If we want to apply that to Kaprizov's 84-point expectation from ages 28 to 32, that translates to being a 71-point player. 

    You can probably account for the injury risk by assuming Kaprizov only plays 74% of the games (the average of everyone here), except that this really seems to be an all-or-nothing affair. Your body seems to either hold up or not. The only player on this list to play between 55 and 80% of their possible games from ages 33-to-36 is Malkin.

    It's also worth noting that the players who've aged best throughout this time tend to be the ones with multiple ways of creating offense. You may have already suspected that, seeing as the biggest drops in offense from the prime years to ages 28-to-32 came from Heatley and Gaborík, two elite, but fairly one-dimensional goal-scorers. But look at the 10 most productive players from ages 33-to-36, and that trend becomes even clearer.

    Points Per Game, Ages 33-to-36, since 2000-01:

    1. Daniel Alfredsson, 1.17
    2. Sidney Crosby, 1.16
    3. Martin St. Louis, 1.07
    4. Alex Ovechkin, 1.06
    5. Patrice Bergeron, 0.98
    6. Ray Whitney, 0.95
    7. Mats Zuccarello, 0.94
    8. Patrick Kane, 0.93
    9. Joe Thornton, 0.91
    10. Brad Marchand, 0.90

    How many of those players would anyone say were one-dimensional? Ovechkin and his ageless one-timer? Granted, but he's a freak. Thornton with his vision? Maybe, although that feels like selling him short, given his exemplary defensive game. Everyone else on the list had multiple ways to generate offense in their primes (even Whitney and Zuccarello, whose numbers are probably influenced by being in the right place at the right time). 

    Kaprizov is an elite goal scorer, there's no doubt about that. His quick-twitch reflexes might slow down once he gets to his mid-30s, and he might not be a perennial 40-goal player anymore. But Kaprizov also has elite vision and hockey sense, and those don't age nearly as much. In fact, you can argue that they only get better with experience. 

    There is absolutely a risk in signing a player to a $17 million cap hit through their age-36 season. Nobody can deny that. However, there is a significant difference between watching a Hall of Very Good-type player like Parise, or a one-dimensional goal scorer like Heatley age, versus a truly elite, multifaceted offensive creator. If the Wild are going to make that big of a bet with anyone, Kaprizov feels like a very strong choice to bank on.

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    17 million for 80 points a year for 3-4 for years...if he stays healthy. Yikes!

    We better make some deep runs in the next few years because the clock is ticking!

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    I’m glad we signed Kaprizov however my main worry is how many seasons he’ll be able to play 70+ games a year in the early years of this contract.

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    Now we need to find a couple more "stars" to help him. This can be from anywhere, but it would be nice if we had drafted them. Now with Kaprizov signed, regardless of how we look in the standings, I'm thinking we are a team adding around January. The adds won't be rentals, they may be future UFAs that get extended, or guys that have term. We've got to get that 2nd line fixed. Really, that's about where we have the hole. It's a lot easier to find capable 2nd liners than 1st liners. I'm still looking at Voronkov, Marchenko and Lindstrom as helping to fill out that hole. CBJ has what we need, if they get off to a rough start, perhaps a volume of futures could pry loose a very good player?

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    We've got to get that 2nd line fixed. 

    Rangers most likely will be sellers at the TDL.  Panarin is expiring.  Expensive... but it shouldn't break the bank.

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    7 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

    Rangers most likely will be sellers at the TDL.  Panarin is expiring.  Expensive... but it shouldn't break the bank.

    Right now if the Wild make zero moves with the roster they will have 16 million at the trade deadline.  So, if Brodin and Zucarello sit for a good chunk of the season the Wild should have money available to sign Panarin at the TDL.

    Then next summer they can drop 9 million on him for a contract to play with his buddy.  His agent however is the same guy that has Kirill and that means he will want Panarin to make more than Kirill.  So it would be nice to see the two Russians on the team I doubt it will happen because of the agent. 

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    It would be nice to see Kirill crank out 100 point plus seasons for the next nine years.  I personally would rather see him play solid hockey with timely scoring for nine years.  The team isn't as bad off as most Minnesota fans think.  They have more than enough scoring to make the playoffs, they have two solid goalies, the defensive core is pretty good.  They just need to play solid hockey up and down the roster when it is needed.  I believe they did that against Vegas and if one skate was onside they more than likely would have won that series.  

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    12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    It would be nice to see Kirill crank out 100 point plus seasons for the next nine years.  I personally would rather see him play solid hockey with timely scoring for nine years.  The team isn't as bad off as most Minnesota fans think.  They have more than enough scoring to make the playoffs, they have two solid goalies, the defensive core is pretty good.  They just need to play solid hockey up and down the roster when it is needed.  I believe they did that against Vegas and if one skate was onside they more than likely would have won that series. 

    Just out of curiosity, which teams in the West do you think will be better, and which falling? 

    I see us in the WC hunt, but I think Anaheim got a lot better, and Utah is improving. I can't say I see someone falling back, maybe Calgary?

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    1 hour ago, WheelSnipeCelly said:

    Dang, so McDavid just signed a 2-year $12.5M extension...making Kaprizov's $17M look like a serious overpay.

    Prepare for this to get argued to death, but I agree that 97 looks little greedy today.  This fan is ok with that.  Gotta pay to play.   We were in no position to haggle. 

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    1 hour ago, WheelSnipeCelly said:

    Dang, so McDavid just signed a 2-year $12.5M extension...making Kaprizov's $17M look like a serious overpay.

    If Kaprizov took that same deal, fans would (rightly) say that Kaprizov has one foot out the door.

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    Anyone wanna bet that Mcdavid wont get more than 17 when his the next contract is signed ?  If Vegas had this bet id be there friday 

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    5 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

    If Kaprizov took that same deal, fans would (rightly) say that Kaprizov has one foot out the door.

    Oh most certainly! Definitely would be cause for concern as the clock is now set for the Oilers. But they at least have been to the Cup Finals for the past two years. Also, even at 2 years, I would have assumed McDavid would have at the very least gotten $14.5 or $15M to surpass Draisaitl. 

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    12 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Just out of curiosity, which teams in the West do you think will be better, and which falling? 

    I see us in the WC hunt, but I think Anaheim got a lot better, and Utah is improving. I can't say I see someone falling back, maybe Calgary?

    They scored 97 points last year with a vast majority of their scoring out for half the year.  It isn't a matter of other teams falling off it is a matter of the Wild scoring 110 points this next season.  With the team they got and the point people are in their careers they should score a lot more this year and the defense will be better and more offensive.  

    It isn't crazy to think the Wild can be 10 to 15 points better in the standings. 

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    10 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    With the team they got and the point people are in their careers they should score a lot more this year and the defense will be better and more offensive.  

    It isn't crazy to think the Wild can be 10 to 15 points better in the standings

    Agree 100%. Boldy looked like a superstar in preseason, if he can keep rolling like he was I could see him sniffing the 90pt club. If Kirill plays more than half a season and keeps pace at the very least a PPG game player then 10pts higher in the standings is very, very attainable. 

    Of course it all hinges on health, our big guns HAVE to stay healthy to get into the top 3 in the Central.

    Edited by M_Nels
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    16 hours ago, WheelSnipeCelly said:

    Oh most certainly! Definitely would be cause for concern as the clock is now set for the Oilers. But they at least have been to the Cup Finals for the past two years. Also, even at 2 years, I would have assumed McDavid would have at the very least gotten $14.5 or $15M to surpass Draisaitl. 

    Look at their contract situation.  They'll have $22M in cap space next year, but they'll only have 14 players signed. 

    If they had paid McDavid more, they'd be even more top-heavy than they are now and will have even less depth.  They'd also have to start trading out players as soon as next off-season - and that may have to happen anyway. 

    I see this as McDavid saying that he'll sign on for two more years at what he's making now in order to stay on and try and win a cup with Edmonton.  After that, who knows.

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    5 hours ago, M_Nels said:

    Agree 100%. Boldy looked like a superstar in preseason, if he can keep rolling like he was I could see him sniffing the 90pt club. If Kirill plays more than half a season and keeps pace at the very least a PPG game player then 10pts higher in the standings is very, very attainable. 

    Of course it all hinges on health, our big guns HAVE to stay healthy to get into the top 3 in the Central.

    Really hoping Boldy takes the horse by the reigns a little more this year.

    I've liked seeing him move around more.  I've been saying it for a while, but he's a much more dangerous player on offense when he's not standing still.  He's got that power forward skill set, but he gets into these ruts where he tries to be a sniper taking one-timers and almost consistently pulling them to the right.

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    16 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    They scored 97 points last year with a vast majority of their scoring out for half the year.  It isn't a matter of other teams falling off it is a matter of the Wild scoring 110 points this next season.  With the team they got and the point people are in their careers they should score a lot more this year and the defense will be better and more offensive.  

    It isn't crazy to think the Wild can be 10 to 15 points better in the standings. 

    i think the biggest cautionary issues are health number one and whether the kids can produce.

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    19 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    They scored 97 points last year with a vast majority of their scoring out for half the year.  It isn't a matter of other teams falling off it is a matter of the Wild scoring 110 points this next season.  With the team they got and the point people are in their careers they should score a lot more this year and the defense will be better and more offensive.  

    It isn't crazy to think the Wild can be 10 to 15 points better in the standings.

    This is a very aggressive outlook. If we put in 110, we should have home ice advantage in the 1st round. I'm surprised you don't think that there will be a learning curve for 5 rookies. 

    To me, they will make mistakes, but you cannot trim their TOI, you just have to coach them up and hope they've learned their lessons. 

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    3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    This is a very aggressive outlook. If we put in 110, we should have home ice advantage in the 1st round. I'm surprised you don't think that there will be a learning curve for 5 rookies. 

    To me, they will make mistakes, but you cannot trim their TOI, you just have to coach them up and hope they've learned their lessons. 

    Ten points would put them at 107.  That is five wins better than last year.  I don't think that is very aggressive at all.  This team will be much better offensively than last year and will be solid if not better on defense than last year as well. 

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    7 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

    i think the biggest cautionary issues are health number one and whether the kids can produce.

    Injuries are a thing you can't predict them and you can't count on them happening Kirill could play the next nine years and not miss a game because of injury.  The kids will be fine with the system that Hynes plays they will be fine. 

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