By Justin Hein -
The NHL salary cap can seem like a scary, unfamiliar beast to those outside league circles. In reality, it’s a simple concept you’ve seen on TV a dozen times.
At each side of a ludicrously long mahogany table, two groups sit across from each other, prepared to hammer out a deal. There are different flavors of this scene. Perhaps you’re picturing the conference room at HHM in Better Call Saul, a glass-and-metal room from Suits, or the back room of Satriale’s Pork Shop from The Sopranos.
In any case, both sides ultimately want to land on a fair number, leave this room, and get back to making money.
The NHL salary cap is determined in much the same way -- just swap out lawyers and mobsters for the league owners and the Players’ Union. Sometimes, it’s high drama. However, when business is good, it’s easy to resolve quickly.
And things are good in the NHL right now.
Business is booming. Strong revenues in recent years will drive next season’s salary cap above $92 million. Not only that, but the money fountain is flowing so freely that the players union may be able to drive that number even higher ahead of upcoming CBA negotiations.
Based on those factors, The Athletic’s analysis indicates that the league may trend toward a cap of around $97 million. Michael Russo speculated on his podcast that the cap could go as high as $110 million by the 2026-27 season. This year’s cap is $88 million, so that’s about a 10% annual increase over two years.
Typically, the NHL caps salary increases at 5% annually. 10% in back-to-back years isn’t a cap explosion -- it’s a nuclear reaction.
That’s going to change the landscape of free-agent contracts dramatically. Broadcasters and analysts will need to quickly recalibrate their understanding of fair value. It also means that for players currently under contract through the ‘26-27 season, their deals will become far more team-friendly than they seemed at signing.
Yakov Trenin is a prime example.
When the Wild signed him, $3.5 million per year seemed like a minor overpay in the first two years and a blunder in Years 3 and 4. Analytics don’t tell the whole story, but Dom Luszczyszyn’s player value model visualizes the contract’s value quite nicely.
Here’s the catch: At the time of signing, this model projected a much more gradual cap increase typical of the NHL landscape in past years. Players’ contract values in the model were based on a projected salary cap of about $92 million next year and $95 million in 2026-27.
Trenin’s annual $3.5 million cap hit accounts for 3.97% of this year’s salary cap. If the cap rises to $110 million in ‘26-27, it will account for only 3.18% of the salary cap. That seems like a small adjustment, but it has a significant impact.
Think of it working backwards. If Trenin accounted for only 3.18% of this year’s salary cap, his cap hit would be only $2.8 million. That’s nearly in line with his current on-ice value.
Trenin will be 28 instead of 30 by then, so age-related decline probably means his contract will also be inefficient. In a vacuum, it’s not perfect. Still, it’s important to remember that free agent contracts are rarely efficient based on analytical models because entry-level contracts (ELCs) and restricted free agents (RFAs) suppress player salaries, opening up more money for unrestricted free agents (UFAs) such as Trenin.
The data above also includes Trenin’s disastrous start to the season. If the Trenin in October isn’t predictive of his future play, his value could trend upwards or at least resist age-related decline. Continuity with his teammates and coaches could offset some of that projected decline.
Finally, Trenin’s cap hit will soon align more closely with his bottom-six forward role. Remember that his ‘26-27 cap hit is essentially equal to $2.8 million in 2024-25 dollars as a percentage of the salary cap. That price is near the bottom of third-line value, according to Luszczyszyn’s model.
These factors won’t fully absolve Bill Guerin from the Trenin contract. It’s still an overpay in a vacuum, but contracts like this one are all over rosters across the league. Because it’s such a small portion of the total cap, this contract won’t prevent Minnesota from re-signing Kirill Kaprizov. Even after that, the Wild will still be able to chase high-priced free agents at any point during Trenin’s contract lifetime.
The only downside of this cap explosion is that those high-priced free agents might be more difficult to afford. Minnesota has $14 million of dead cap coming off the books this offseason. Still, that new cap space will actually be diluted by the new cap space that every other NHL team will get with an increased salary cap.
Furthermore, the new cap space may have to be redistributed through the current roster. With all the money teams can throw at free agents, the other players may find themselves unsatisfied with their now below-market deals.
That likely won’t affect players at the bottom of the lineup like Trenin, but superstars with more leverage could force their teams back to the table by holding out. Much will change under the new cap environment, especially in the early years as the league adjusts.
Ultimately, it’s good for Guerin and the Wild that the salary cap will increase rapidly in the next two years. In light of this news, long contracts to older players such as Trenin, Jake Middleton, and Marcus Foligno will look much friendlier. It’s possible that he had an idea that this may be coming, or it could just be a stroke of good luck.
Either way, fans and analysts need to react accordingly. Last year’s bottom-of-the-lineup “overpays” won’t weigh teams down very much in coming years. That’s great news for a team whose competition window is just around the corner.
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