Does the Wild's Commitment To Gustavsson Leave Wallstedt's Future In Question?

The Minnesota Wild locked up a significant piece of their future when they signed Filip Gustavsson to a contract extension that will pay him $34 million ($6.8 million average annual value) for the next five seasons. 

The move comes on the heels of a recent slew of deals that solidify the team’s future, but it could also have a significant impact on decisions further down the line. In the case of Filip Gustavsson’s extension, the biggest question will naturally be how it affects the trajectory of our No. 3 Wild prospect Jesper Wallstedt. 

When the Wild drafted Wallstedt 20th overall in 2021, he was considered one of the top goaltending prospects in the world. Since then, he’s had two strong seasons in the AHL, followed by a disastrous campaign last year. 

Even with his struggles in Iowa last year, Wallstedt is still one of Minnesota’s most valuable prospects. It became clear the Wild see him as their backup for this year when they put veteran Cal Petersen on waivers. 

It will be exciting to see how Wallstedt performs in his first full NHL season, but Gustavsson’s extension could put his long-term future with the team in doubt.

By signing Gustavsson to the 13th-richest goaltender contract in the league by AAV, Minnesota has shown it believes the team has its starting goalie of at least the next few years locked up. It’s challenging to imagine supplanting Gustavsson unless his play is disastrous in the near future. 

That seems to put a damper on Wallstedt’s career aspirations. The goaltender is competitive and looked like Minnesota’s goalie of the future until last season. In a profile last year, he talked about his ambitions of building a long-term career in the NHL.

“But also knowing that I don't wanna come to the NHL to just be an NHL goalie,” he told NHL.com. “I want to get there and succeed and build a career that is going to be successful in the long run for many years.”

If both Wallstedt and Gustavsson play well, this is bound to become a conflict. When the rubber meets the road, several potential outcomes are possible. 

First, one of either Wallstedt or Gustavsson gets traded. 

Theoretically, Gustavsson’s new deal doesn’t fully preclude him from being moved. The cap hit is reasonable for a bona fide NHL starter. His no-trade clause is a full no-trade for three seasons, which becomes a 15-team no-trade list in the final years. 

While trading Gustavsson is possible, few teams would trade a goalie of his caliber. Goalie trades in the NHL are relatively rare, especially involving starters. 

The Anaheim Ducks traded John Gibson to the Detroit Red Wings over the offseason, but only after Lukas Dostal separated himself as the clear starter in Anaheim. That was also a years-long saga, during which the Ducks had difficulty trading Gibson’s $6.4 million AAV contract. 

That trade is the only goalie trade in the last 10 years that included an active netminder with an average annual value of more than $6 million. 

So, while trading Gustavsson is possible based on his cap hit, history suggests it's unlikely that a goalie of his caliber will be traded. 

A situation with far more precedence is one where a young goaltender forces their way out of an organization where it's difficult for them to become a starter.

The Nashville Predators drafted Yaroslav Askarov 11th overall in 2020 as the presumed heir to the Pekka Rinne throne. Unfortunately for Askarov, Juuse Saros emerged as a top-level goaltender and signed an eight-year contract extension on July 1, 2024.

Askarov requested a trade just a month later, and the Predators traded him to the San Jose Sharks, putting him in a situation where he had a more straightforward path to becoming an NHL starter. 

In a similar occurrence, the Florida Panthers took Spencer Knight in the first round of the 2019 draft. Sergei Bobrovsky struggled early in his contract, but solidified himself as the obvious starter in Florida. 

Spencer Knight became expendable and the Panthers traded him to the Chicago Blackhawks last season, where he is now Chicago's No. 1 goaltender after signing a three-year deal. 

Could Wallstedt be the latest first-round pick goalie who gets their path blocked by a more senior backstop?

Both the Askarov and Knight trades fetched their original teams' conditional first-round picks, so if Wallstedt follows in their footsteps, Minnesota could get good assets for him. 

There is another option that is preferable to everyone involved. The Wild could go all in on being a goaltending-heavy team. If Wallstedt proves to be an NHL-starter-level goalie, Minnesota could give him and Gustavsson a relatively equal workload. 

The traditional workhorse goaltender is going out in style in the NHL. Only five goalies made 60 or more starts last season, while 12 reached that mark 10 years ago. Minnesota could take it even further and adopt a division of labor similar to the one used by the Toronto Maple Leafs last season.

While some may recoil at being compared to the Maple Leafs, they have a competitive situation in net. 

The team has Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz in net, both of whom were great last year. Anthony Stolarz started 33 games for Toronto and led the league in save percentage with a .926 rating. Joseph Woll started 41 games and logged a .909 save percentage, which is still significantly better than the .900 league average.

Toronto essentially has no starting goalie, and this allows them to ride the hot hand at any given time. 

Wallstedt and Gustavsson could be Minnesota’s version of Woll and Stolarz if Wallstedt develops the way Minnesota hopes he will. An even greater outcome is that a true tandem may also help bring out the best in Gustavsson.

Gustavsson had a monster workload last season before he got hurt. Even with an injury, he still started 58 games and was worse down the stretch than he was at the start of the season. 

He’s likely in line for similar responsibilities this season as Wallstedt gets acclimated to the NHL. Still, when the Wall catches up, Minnesota could get the absolute best out of Gustavsson for 45 games.

Minnesota would have to convince both to take on such a role, but it would be beneficial for both of their performances. If that doesn’t happen, it’s possible Jesper Wallstedt could see his name in trade rumors in the near future if he aspires to be more than Gustavsson’s backup.