Do the Wild Have the Makeup Of A Bona Fide Contender?

What makes a Stanley Cup team? Some may say offense, some defense. Ultimately, the team with the most goals wins, and that’s just what the Minnesota Wild have been doing. But does that mean they’re a contender?

The Wild have passed the eye test since the beginning of this season, at least as far as competitive teams are concerned. They are simply skating faster, stronger, and more purposefully than I’ve seen since at least 2021-22.

But this is a Minnesota team, so there’s always reason to be cautious. I wanted to know what we’re seeing with the Wild, so I compared some of Minnesota’s offensive and defensive stats to start this season against the Cup winners from the last three seasons.

The Wild are projected to end the regular season with 289 goals for and 207 goals against. These are more than respectable numbers, but are they Cup numbers? Last year, the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup after ending their regular season 52-24-6 with 198 GA and 265 GF. Compared to the Wild’s projection, that's only a difference of 20 goals either way, so that’s promising. 

How about the 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights? At the end of their regular season, they had a record of 51-22-9 with 225 GA and 267 GF. It's even closer to Minnesota’s projection this year, except slightly worse. 

Now, for the dreaded 2021-22 Colorado Avalance. The Avs finished that season 56-19-7 with 232 GA and 308 GF. The Wild aren’t on pace to score more but have been making up for it with their stellar defense this year.

The Wild have played like contenders to start the season. But projections are circumstantial at best, and with GA and GF, it calculates all goals. 

Good teams must win while playing 5-on-5, so these projections can be skewed. There are many factors within a season that make that a noisy statistic. Sure, scoring more and getting scored on less is great, but these are also regular-season stats and projections. So, come April, the Wild will still need to put up these numbers. And how likely is that, really?

Therefore, I compared some non-circumstantial stats. As of writing this, the Wild are sitting at an xGF% of 51% while playing 5-on-5, and the lowest it has been all season is 50%. To put this into perspective, this time last year, the Wild were sitting below 50% at 48%, which wasn’t even the worst. 

Before November of the previous year, the Wild were sitting at an xGF% of 46% after reaching a season-low of 41% mid-October. The Wild have shown more consistency to start this season, and keeping above 50% this year is no small feat.

But what about the previous Cup winners? Last year’s Panthers finished their season with an xGF% of 54% at 5 on 5, a meaningful increase from Minnesota’s consistent 51%. The Wild also trail in xGoals against, sitting at 25 to Florida’s 23 last year.  

What about the 2022-23 Golden Knights at 5-on-5? Last November, Vegas’ xGF% was 56%, blowing Minnesota’s 51% out of the water. But the Wild have had a more robust defensive start than the Cup-winning Vegas team, sporting an xGoals against of 25 to the Golden Knights’ 30. 

As for the 2021-22 Avalanche, while playing 5-on-5, they accumulated an xGF% of 55%, once again creating more chances than the Wild this year. And this is where it gets really silly: In November 2021, the Avs were sitting at an xGoals against of only 18 goals. So it’s safe to say that the Wild aren’t playing as well as Colorado was at 5-on-5 three seasons ago.

Each of the last three Cup winners has followed in the footsteps of their predecessors by creating quality scoring chances and having an xGF% of 54 to 56% in November. 

While those stats don’t work in Minnesota’s favor, each Cup-winning team has played more like the Winnipeg Jets of this year than the Wild. There is one constant throughout the regular season: Each Cup team has had an xGF% of over 50% for the entirety of the season.

The Wild’s highest percentage this season has been 56% and no lower than 50% at 5-on-5. So, Minnesota has it in them offensively and is already sitting pretty with its defensive stats this year. Therefore, the Wild can win the Cup this year if they play consistently and stay healthy.