By Tony Abbott -
A good reason to never draft for need is that you never quite know what a team's needs will be three years out. Last summer, Minnesota Wild fans saw an enviable amount of young defensemen ready to turn pro. Brock Faber looked stellar in the 2023 playoffs. Daemon Hunt and Ryan O'Rourke had finished their first seasons in the AHL, with Carson Lambos and late-round draft surprises Kyle Masters and David Spacek. The buzz around this group got to the point where speculation arose concerning whether the Wild would trade these players just to decrease the impending logjam.
One year later, it looks like defense might be the top need for Minnesota entering next month's draft after most of those players struggled. Fortunately, if the Wild are looking to upgrade their blueline, 2024 seems to be the draft to do it. According to Bob McKenzie's Draft Rankings, six of the top-13 players are defensemen. This draft is also believed to be unpredictable, with anything being on the table after Macklin Celebrini goes No. 1 overall to the San Jose Sharks.
So, 6-foot-7 KHL defenseman Anton Silayev? Perhaps unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. Future Charlie Stramel teammate Artyom Levshunov, who just scored nine goals and 35 points as a freshman at Michigan State, also seems a longer shot to fall to Minnesota's No. 13 overall spot. But as for Sam Dickinson, Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium, and Carter Yakemchuk? Now we're talking real possibilities for Minnesota to find a top-tier defense prospect.
If one of those players falls to Minnesota, it might seem like a no-brainer to pick whoever's left. But what if it comes down to a choice between one of them and, say, a top-tier goal-scorer like Cole Eiserman? Or a center like Konsta Helenius, who combines being one of the "safest" players in the draft with offensive upside? That decision will come down to what the organization needs most, but will that be a defenseman?
We know we just said at the top that team needs shouldn't be a factor, and Wild fans still mourning over passing on Gabriel Perreault last year are going to shout "Best Player Available!" That's great, but there's often no clear-cut "Best Player Available. Was Matt Boldy a better prospect in 2019 than Cole Caufield, for example? There were arguments for either, and sometimes you must make a call between two (or more) fairly evenly-ranked players.
Like it or not, need becomes a tiebreaker at that point. Predicting the future with prospects is a tricky matter. But thinking long-term, Minnesota probably should lean forward over defense, all things being equal.
This sounds counter-intuitive for those who looked at just how poorly the Iowa Wild blueline performed this year. Minnesota's AHL club went almost exclusively young on the blueline, a project that appears to be a factor in them finishing last place in their division.
Hunt, O'Rourke, Lambos, and Spacek played 50-plus games in Des Moines last year. The oldest among them was Hunt, who played the season at age-21. As a group, they struggled mightily, scoring 29, 12, 13, and 12 points, respectively. Masters only drew in 19 times at the AHL level, instead playing most of his time for the ECHL's Iowa Heartlanders. He had 19 points in 32 games.
Uh-oh. The thing to remember, though, is these prospects were thrown into the deepest end of the pool with very little veteran leadership. Minnesota used Iowa's captain Dakota Mermis for most of the season, with Mermis playing just five AHL games. That left Andy Welinski (whose Player Try-Out concluded mid-season), Brenden Miller (46 games), and Will Butcher (acquired near the trade deadline) as their only defensemen over the age of 25.
"I've heard a scout use the term 'They're drinking from a fire hose,' and I thought that was perfect," Matt Hendricks, Minnesota's assistant director of player development, told The Athletic in March. "This has been a very big learning curve." Unfortunately, the players are the ones who get scrutiny when they struggle under extreme circumstances engineered by their organization. It's not helpful or fair to make 24-year-old Simon Johansson or 21-year-olds in Hunt and O'Rourke have to be the veteran leadership by default.
The thing to remember is that this group boasts as much talent now as it did last year. Iowa observers saw flashes of that talent throughout the year. Even since the AHL season ended, Spacek just won the Gold Medal at the IIHF World Championships, leading Team Czechia's blueline with five points despite averaging 14 minutes over 10 games.
While finding some stable veteran mentorship has to be a priority in Des Moines, the Wild are about to get even more young talent in Iowa. 2021 second-round pick Jack Peart finished his career at St. Cloud State University and has two points through a nine-game stint with Iowa last season. He'll be another 21-year-old, but he brings some great skating to the table.
Last year probably served as a reality check that all these defensemen aren't going to make it to the NHL. But just because there's not an impending logjam doesn't mean there isn't talent. Some of these players will become useful NHLers, and between Lambos, Peart, and Spacek, there are some good bets to unearth a Top-4 player.
Ideally, you'd want to have that centerpiece that the blueline falls in place around. Good news: The Wild have that -- just not in Iowa. Faber just finished a strong rookie year, scoring 47 points in 82 games despite never being put in an offensive role and breaking his ribs mid-season. His defensive chops were as advertised, and even further growth in his offense (in driving it, if not necessarily scoring) should be seen as a realistic goal for his sophomore season.
With that foundational player in place, the Wild have the luxury of not needing to develop a No. 1 defenseman. Look at the four teams remaining in the postseason.
Adam Fox is the New York Rangers' only true star defenseman, but the team is in a good spot because they've built up a solid blueline around him. The Edmonton Oilers are in a similar spot with Evan Bouchard, and -- with all due respect to Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling -- the Florida Panthers have built their roster that way with Aaron Ekblad. Only Dallas (Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley) can be said to have two game-breakers on the blueline.
Ultimately, talent is talent, and the goal of the draft is to add talent. If the Wild add a Buium or a Yakemchuk to their roster, those are strong additions that will be exciting for the future. But there's little reason to be disappointed if Minnesota goes in another direction and grabs a forward. Again, talent is talent, and with Faber in place as the Wild's No. 1 defenseman for the foreseeable future, the Wild have the luxury of drafting whoever they like best, regardless of position, while feeling reasonably sure the roster construction will work itself out.
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