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  • Could the Wild Get A Bounce Back From One Of Their Worst-Value Contract Players?


    Image courtesy of Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
    Luke Sims

    The 2023-24 season was disappointing for the Minnesota Wild. Almost all of Minnesota’s veteran players regressed. However, many of their middle-six players were at the forefront of the disappointment. Whether it was production, health, or effort, the Wild got less-than-inspiring seasons from Freddy Gaudreau, Ryan Hartman, and Marcus Johansson.

    The Wild must see significant internal improvement from those forwards heading into next season. The Wild signed Yakov Trenin, who should bring a renewed hard-nosed identity and toughness to the Wild. 

    While hoping that veteran forwards will unexpectedly better isn’t sound practice from the front office, it’s one of Bill Guerin’s best pathways in getting this team back to the postseason. 

    While physical strength and being hard to play against are contributing reasons why the Wild could make the playoffs this next season, the Wild were still 26th in even-strength goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) last year. 

    But with the Wild's lack of cap space, there’s not much room to add a premier offensive scorer. There are rumors that the team could acquire Patrik Laine from the Columbus Blue Jackets, but it would be difficult to pull off with Laine's hefty salary. 

    The Wild could try a prospect like Liam Ohgren in the top six. However, it might be asking too much of a 20-year-old with four games of NHL experience. 

    That means the Wild are left hoping they can get a bounce back from this trio of middle-sixers. But how realistic is a bounceback from this group? 

    Marcus Johansson

    Johansson spent most of last season in the Wild’s top six. The Wild put Johansson in a position to succeed, but it seemed like he was getting in a cardio session most nights. Johansson would only muster 11 goals and 30 points across 78 games last season. 

    To be fair, Johansson has only scored 20 or more goals three times in his career. The most recent time was a season in which he shot 14.29% and played at his best with Matt Boldy during a playoff push. 

    Johansson will not suddenly be the player he was with Boldy. He’s fine. Johansson's play while lining up with Boldy was ephemeral – he never got close to playing at that level last year. While the 18 points in 20 games at the end of the 2022-23 season was fun, it was not a true reflection of the value Johansson will bring going forward. 

    Maybe playing Johasson in a third-line role that allows him to elevate his defensive game and gets him more engaged on both ends of the ice would be beneficial. Regardless, the Wild should not give Johansson that second-line left-wing spot by default. Minnesota needs Johansson to bounce back, but it’s unreasonable to assume he’ll regain the form he had with Boldy. 

    Ryan Hartman

    Hartman is a bit of a different story. Hartman was a stud and should continue to be an aggressive, play-driving forward. He didn’t take that much of a step back last season. 

    Hartman’s points per game was .63 in 2022-23, and it was .61 in 2023-24. He eclipsed double-digit goals in both seasons and even scored 21 last season. The thing is that this is a big step down from his 34-goal, 65-point season in 2022-23 playing with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello

    Hartman entered his prime in Minnesota. Until that season with Kaprizov, Hartman had never hit double-digit goals and had a career-high of 22 points in Minnesota. Now that Hartman has established himself, he’s a player who can play a two-way game, score 20 goals, and put up 40 to 50 points. 

    While last season was another letdown from his career-best campaign with Kaprizov, it was more of a shift to the status quo. We shouldn’t expect more from Hartman, and that’s okay. Hartman must keep doing what he’s doing, not regress further. 

    Freddy Gaudreau

    I like to pretend that Gaudreau plays for another NHL franchise, but No. 89 will suit up in the green and red next season and for four more seasons. Gaudreau was largely an unproven player before he came to the Wild. Guerin had a connection with him from his time in the Pittsburgh Penguins organization. Former Wild head coach Dean Evason had also coached him with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL. 

    As a result, Gaudreau benefited from an elevated role in the lineup. As we’ve seen before, centering Kaprizov and Zuccarello or Boldy and former Wild star Kevin Fiala usually increases the number of points a player produces each year. 

    Gaudreau has back-to-back solid campaigns, scoring double-digit goals with 44 and 38 points, respectively, in each season. That’s when Guerin decided to give him a five-year extension worth $2.1 million per season. However, that contract extension looks terrible right now. Gaudreau faced injuries and demotions and only had five goals and 15 points in 67 games. 

    However, Gaudreau is Minnesota’s biggest bounce-back candidate. Hopefully, he can enter this season healthy and with something to prove. Chances are he will get a shot on the third line with Marcus Foligno and Trenin, and they can make a strong two-way line. 

    The Wild are banking on internal improvements from these players. The chances of them improving dramatically enough to impact the Wild’s season are low. It’s easy to see why Hartman and Johansson regressed. Gaudreau’s production dropped off dramatically, but he was injured. Even if Gaudreau comes back healthy, don’t expect a 50-point season. 

    There won’t be a bounceback for any of these players, except maybe Gaudreau. It’s why the Wild should prioritize young, cost-effective players in the future.

    All stats and data via HockeyDB, CapWages, and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.

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    Hartman's the best choice unless Ohgren proves otherwise.  The thing with Hartman is he's a jack of all trades, Master of none, but a 20-goal scorer who plays his ass off regardless of placement is a great thing to have.

    Yurov chose to not sign here this year, and Ohgren may or may not be a 20-goal scoring winger.  Hartman always seems to get shit on, but then reaffirms his value in a "oh fuck, we keep forgetting he's good" sort of way.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    8 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Hartman's the best choice unless Ohgren proves otherwise.  The thing with Hartman is he's a jack of all trades, Master of none, but a 20-goal scorer who plays his ass off regardless of placement is a great thing to have.

    Yurov chose to not sign here this year, and Ohgren may or may not be a 20-goal scoring winger.  Hartman always seems to get shit on, but then reaffirms his value in a "oh fuck, we keep forgetting he's good" sort of way.

    I agree with this. I would rather Hartman on that second line over Nojo any day and let Ohgren get up to speed in a sheltered role, unless he dominates. I think that should be the safest bet, and hopefully he can continue to drive play with Rossi and Zuccy. I think in their limited time together last season, they were a strong possession line but just didn’t show scoring results. Hoping they changes this year. 

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    I would say Hartman is the favorite to be the 3rd wheel on the 2nd line. He and Zuccarello have a history of chemistry and Rossi can fit right in. Hartman can help Rossi with draws on his strong side and he is an RHS. I could certainly see a benefit here. And, let's face it, he played way better than Johansson.

    You know what encourages someone to waive an NTC? Put him under a different head coach and change his role. Some may see it as a refreshing change, but given Johansson propensity for flyby defense, I don't believe he is part of that some. 

    But, when it comes to Johansson and Gaudreau, what were we expecting from guys making $2m and $2.1m? What sort of stats do those guys put up? I'd argue 11 goals and 30 points is probably better than average for a $2m contract, however, those points usually come with a certain amount of grit, that if it was there, it was darn near invisible (although, Johansson did take Radko Gudas into the boards and sent him to the IR). 

    Johansson isn't a 2nd line wing, and a 2nd line wing would be grossly underpaid at $2m. I think we got what we paid for. A great gift idea for Johansson would be a knob for the end of his stick, maybe that would help? As for Gaudreau, I'd expect at least double the point production from him, and a + in the +/- category. Where he earns his bonus is as #3 in the shootout where he was money 2 seasons ago. Since we had few shootouts last year while he was healthy and he wasn't particularly good in them, a bounce back here could be something we see. 

    But, let's also be realistic: Both players can be waived and sent to Iowa or claimed by another team if a youngster whose place they hold beats them out in camp. They were not signed with Heinzy as coach, and he didn't seem to like either of their play. Was it that they were too high in the lineup? Heinzy had little choice with the injuries and a 4th line consisting of AHL players very often. Sometimes when you switch coaches in the regular season, the best a new coach can do is simply play the hand dealt to him until he can get to the offseason and then install his system, and emphasize what he thinks is important.

    Heinzy went on record early in his tenure that he was merely trying to tweak Evason's system last year, and point out some things that could make them better, but it was pretty obvious that last year was not his brand of hockey. I think we see a very different style next season, good or bad, but different. I also don't think that Heinzy is going to put up with cardio shifts. Looking at Heinzy's reaction to the cardio shifts makes me think that he's thinking "you want cardio shifts? Fine" and he bag skates him/them the next couple of practices. 

    I do believe in the bounce back from those 2 players, but I also believe highly in the production improvement being internal. All of our young guys need to be better.

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    I wonder if there is enough time in the off season and the pre season to  teach heinz different style or if players dont even require it and can just go because the pre season is mostly prospects and some regulars .  

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    On 8/9/2024 at 4:41 PM, Citizen Strife said:

    Hartman's the best choice unless Ohgren proves otherwise.  The thing with Hartman is he's a jack of all trades, Master of none, but a 20-goal scorer who plays his ass off regardless of placement is a great thing to have.

    Yurov chose to not sign here this year, and Ohgren may or may not be a 20-goal scoring winger.  Hartman always seems to get shit on, but then reaffirms his value in a "oh fuck, we keep forgetting he's good" sort of way.

    Agreed. Hartmann is the player I want to see on the 3rd line that gets elevated to the top-6 when a forward is hurt or struggling.

    Frauddy is fine in the bottom 6. I don't think he's the player you want to have in the top 6 for more than a game or 2.

    Nojo should be in the press box most of the time.

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    H8 to post the word "buyout", but if Frauddy can't be moved or stashed somewhere (AHL or press box) do we pull the plug to make room on the roster for a prospect before he becomes the new Goligoski?

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