Carson Lambos Showed Under-the-Radar Growth Last Season

It's no secret that Carson Lambos is in the Post-Hype Prospect phase of his career. Coming out of the 2021 Draft, it was clear the Minnesota Wild weren't the only people high on the 26th overall pick.

"He has a very special offensive toolkit," wrote Mitchell Brown of Elite Prospects in their 2021 Draft Guide. "Lambos is hard to play against and regularly punishes players physically," opined Corey Pronman in his draft rankings for that year. Any defenseman who can put those two things together? Oh, man. That's gonna be something to watch.

But like most prospects, Lambos' potential was highest on draft day. "Former first-rounder" is going to be the only suggestion that Lambos is headed for greatness. His sophomore season in the NHL saw his point total increase from 14 points in 69 games as a rookie to... 19 in 68 games. One hopes to see substantial growth from a prospect from year to year, and this wasn't quite it.

At least, on paper.

If you asked the Wild brass, they would have painted a brighter picture. They backed up their improved optimism with a January call-up, even though Lambos didn't make his NHL debut. However, when the team recalled Lambos, Bill Guerin vouched for his former top pick. "His game's improved over the last year and a half. He's put his time in. He's playing the right way."

It's hard to know exactly what that means. The advanced stats that are easily found in the NHL don't exist for the AHL, at least publicly. Lambos went from a minus-7 goal differential at 5-on-5 in 2023-24 to a plus-1 last year, but that isn't always a reliable indicator of controlling the play. We also have to account for the fact that the Iowa Wild were tied for the second-highest goals against last season. Sure, Lambos played a lot of minutes for them (though, how many, we don't know!), but the team has flaws that run deeper than any one player.

However, despite the unimpressive counting stats and poor team performance, some small indicators reflect the team's faith in Lambos. The first is that while his point totals seemed lacking, that seems to be primarily a function of his role. Lambos was leaned on heavily at 5-on-5, and a big reason for it was that he was able to generate more offense than his peers. 16 of his 19 points came at 5-on-5, which was the most among Iowa's defensemen.

More encouragingly, though, it was tied for 42nd among AHL defensemen. His 5-on-5 offense outpaced some of his peers from his draft year, such as 31st overall pick Logan Mailloux (14 5-on-5 points in 63 games) and 36th overall selection Shai Buium (14 in 67 games).

While we might have some prospect fatigue with Lambos, given that he's entering his Draft+5 season in the Wild organization with zero games, it's essential to maintain some perspective. Mailloux's value this offseason was enough to net Zack Bolduc in a trade coming off a 19-goal, 36-point season. That return was somewhat boosted by Mailloux being a harder-to-find right-shot defenseman, but still, it's interesting that Lambos kept pace at even strength.

So while his overall numbers might suggest a third-pairing, defensive defenseman, maybe there's something more here. Lambos is probably not going to get the big minutes he's gotten in Iowa -- not with Brock Faber, Zeev Buium, and David Jiříček ahead of him on the depth chart for the next half-decade-plus -- but he might be a rare offensive third-pairing defenseman. Especially since he's taking his old tricks from juniors and translating them to the professional game.

A year made a huge difference to Elite Prospects' David St-Louis. In April 2024, at the end of Lambos' rookie season, the impression the defenseman made on the scout was nonplussed. "I didn't see offense in his game... nothing exciting," St-Louis wrote at the time.

By the time he was finishing his sophomore campaign, Lambos' offensive toolkit had asserted itself again. "Carson Lambos was the best playmaker from the back end in these games," St-Louis said of a back-to-back set with the Manitoba Moose from April. "Just like in his early WHL days, he attracted pressure at the top of the zone, faked defenders, attacked down, and while maintaining deception, passed to teammates in space across the ice. These sequences happened again and again."

You might expect such rave reviews to have accompanied a huge weekend from the former first-round pick, but Lambos' numbers didn't reflect the quality of play described. He had one assist in those two games. Still, it at least hints at Lambos being capable of more in a better environment.

He'll get a chance to prove he can thrive in a better situation next year. With Jonas Brodin possibly hurt to start the season, Lambos will be in the mix to get some immediate playing time. Jon Merrill and Declan Chisholm are both gone (though Merrill is a free agent), and Player Try-Out signee Jack Johnson might be the worst defenseman in modern NHL history. If Brodin is indeed out for the first few weeks of the season, there's a clear path for Lambos to draw in for the Opening Night lineup.

Lambos would likely start on the third pairing beside Zach Bogosian, who didn't make for a particularly effective safety blanket for Buium in the playoffs. That could prove to be limiting, but the upgrade in forward talent would be perfect for Lambos' skill set. There's a big difference between making a first pass to, say, Graeme Clarke and making a pass to a bona fide NHL third-liner like Marcus Foligno or Ryan Hartman. 

You have to throw out the "first-rounder" designation when evaluating Lambos. He's not going to reach his potential as he was back in 2021. But if he can play third-pairing minutes and help the Wild push the pace in a way that, say, Merrill couldn't, then that's a decent use of draft capital. Lambos took steps toward doing that last year; his job now is to take that final step.