By Luke Sims -
The last time the Minnesota Wild met the Vegas Golden Knights in the playoffs was a thrilling series. It came down to Game 7 in Vegas, and the Wild eventually lost to a team that reached the Western Conference Finals.
The names and faces of those teams look a lot different now. The last time these teams met in the playoffs, Marc-Andre Fleury was Vegas’s starting goalie, and Kirill Kaprizov was a rookie playing in his first NHL playoff games.
There have been a few significant changes, but the core parts of both teams remain the same. While the Wild have added Marco Rossi and Brock Faber, the Knights have added Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin, Ivan Barbashev, and Tomas Hertl.
Vegas also looks slightly different behind the bench with former Boston Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy instead of Peter DeBoer, who’s now coaching the Dallas Stars. DeBoer dispatched the Wild with Dallas two years after doing so with the Golden Knights. John Hynes has replaced Evason and enters the playoffs with a 4-15 record.
As it stands now, the Knights are the betting favorite at -240 to win the series. Meanwhile, the Wild are at +195 to steal the series from Vegas. The Athletic gives the Knights a 69% chance to win the series and a 21% chance in five games. Moneypuck.com also has a similar outlook for the Wild, giving Vegas a 73% chance to make it past Minnesota.
The Knights have won the last five meetings with the Wild, including going 3-0 in the season series. All-time, the Knights are 20-15 against the Wild, including the matchups in the playoffs.
Vegas secured the Pacific Division title weeks ago, and the Wild secured their playoff spot with a tying goal with 20 seconds left against the Anaheim Ducks, a bottom-ten team in the league.
Here’s how they compare statistically.
Points: Vegas 110 (3rd), Minnesota 97 (12th)
GF/60: Vegas, 3.32 (6th), Minnesota, 2.72 (25th)
GA/60: Vegas 2.57 (4th), Minnesota 2.87 (16th)
xGF/60: Vegas 3.33 (8th), Minnesota 2.89 (28th)
CF%: Vegas 51.58 (9th), Minnesota 47.64 (26th)
PP%: Vegas 28.3% (2nd), Minnesota 20.9 (20th)
PK%: Vegas 75.7% (26th), Minnesota 72.4 (30th)
Vegas netminder Adin Hill and Minnesota goalie Filip Gustavsson match up well. They rank 16th and 15th, respectively, in Goals Saved Above Expected, with Gus leading by 0.8 points at 15.3. However, Hill has a Stanley Cup pedigree, while Gus has been inconsistent throughout his career.
The Wild were able to push the 2021 series to Game 7, but hold your breath for the same thing this year. The Knights are meaningfully more talented than the last time these two teams played in the postseason. Vegas has a significantly better offense and one of the league’s best defenses. They are considerably better than the Wild in special teams categories and hold the edge in almost every notable stat by a wide margin. There’s a reason the Wild face long odds in this one.
The Wild can hope that by returning to full health, they will start to look like the team that was first in the standings in November. However, there’s no guarantee they will stay healthy in the playoffs. They’ve worked Gustavsson hard all season, and he may face fatigue.
Minnesota has one major advantage, though. Kirill Kaprizov is the best player in this series.
Kaprizov was a rookie and scored three points in seven playoff games against Vegas. Kirill has missed a lot this season with a lingering lower-body injury, but he’s looked sharp in the final four games of the regular season and will be full-go for the playoffs.
You can argue that Eichel is a better overall player and provides more positional value to Vegas as a center. However, Kaprizov was on pace for a 100-point season before he got hurt. Not to discredit Eichel, but I’d take Kaprizov’s 100-point projection over his 93-point season. The Wild has the best hockey player between these two teams.
If Kaprizov can return to his early-season MVP form and this team can play like the healthy team they were at the beginning of the year, the Wild may have a chance to take down the Knights. However, their armor may be a little too strong, and their sword swings a little too mighty for the Wild to concur this time around.
All stats and data via HockeyDB, Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck.com, The Athletic, and Hockey Reference unless otherwise noted.
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