By Tony Abbott -
Believe it or not, the Minnesota Wild could start their charge toward the playoffs next season by trading their best goalie from last season. If you're looking to sneak some bar bet victories this summer, you might get some mileage out of the fact that Filip Gustavsson actually had the best save percentage among Wild goalies last year.
Sure, we're only talking about a .899 mark, but it's surprising considering where Gustavsson's stock is compared to Marc-Andre Fleury (.895 save% in 2023-24). Of course, there are good reasons for the Wild to have shown more confidence toward Fleury down the stretch. Beyond the Hall of Fame pedigree, the 39-year-old turned in 18 Quality Starts in the 36 times he took the ice first. That's a decent-but-not-great .500 Quality Start%. However, you are the most consistent goalie by default when your competition has a .419 mark (18 of 43).
Still, the growing sense that Gustavsson could be on the move this summer means the Wild will be relying on Fleury, who turns 40 on November 28, and top prospect Jesper Wallstedt. Wallstedt shares a Birthday Month with Fleury but on the opposite end of the aging curve. He turns 22 on November 14. It's risky, but the Wild may be comfortable with Wallstedt at this point in his development, not to mention attracted to their 2021 first-rounder being an apprentice to a Hall of Famer.
So, let's take a break from hand-wringing about the risk and play this scenario out. What are the Wild hoping will happen if they give Wallstedt a job as a 1A or 1B goalie next year? What can we expect?
It won't surprise many people to know that it's pretty rare for a goalie to get a significant workload at age-22. Not only does a team have to believe in a goalie performing at an atypically young age, but they must be good enough to stick around. Since the NHL started tracking goalie starts in the 2007-08 season, only 12 players were good enough to start 30 or more games for their NHL clubs at that age.
Here's how they performed in terms of save percentage:
Tuukka Rask, 2009-10: .931 (39 starts)
Matt Murray, 2016-17: .923 (47 starts)
James Reimer, 2010-11: .921 (35 starts)
John Gibson 2015-16: .920 (38 starts)
Andrei Vasilevskiy, 2016-17: .917 (47 starts)
Sergei Bobrovsky, 2010-11: .915 (52 starts)
Michal Neuvirth, 2010-11: .914 (44 starts)
Alexandar Georgiev, 2018-19: .914 (30 starts)
Robin Lehner, 2013-14: .913 (30 starts)
Carey Price, 2009-10: .912 (39 starts)
Ondřej Pavelec, 2009-10: .906 (40 starts)
Steve Mason, 2010-11: .901 (53 starts)
There's absolutely survivor's bias at play here. However, the good news is that if a young goalie is sticking around for 30-plus games, they're generally pretty good. Of these 12 names, only Lehner, Pavelec, and Mason finished below the NHL league average. Wallstedt being at that level is a big "if," of course. Still, once he clears the hurdle of proving he belongs in the NHL, his upside is fairly high for next year.
Someone like Vasilevskiy probably represents an ideal, cautious path for a goalie to work his way into full-time status. At age-20, Vasilevskiy played 25 games in the AHL and started 13 more in the NHL. The following year, he nearly flipped that around, playing 12 AHL games and starting 21 NHL games. Once he was 22, he had 40 games of experience. Wallstedt won't have that going for him. He has just three NHL games (179 minutes) since turning pro at the start of the 2022-23 season.
But we get another round of good news in that many of these top young goalies didn't have that gradual ramp-up, either. Rask was thrown in a Boston Bruins tandem with just four games of NHL experience (and 100-plus AHL games). Georgiev made just nine NHL starts at age-21 before assuming a larger role the following year. Bobrovsky and Reimer were thrown in cold to the NHL, making their debuts at age-22.
So if Wallstedt is ready, he can shine. Again, that's the big "If." Of the 22-year-old goalies that more-or-less got thrown into the deep end, they were mostly dominant talents in their respective leagues. At 21, Rask posted a .915 save percentage in 57 games before going on an insane .930 run in 16 postseason games. Reimer went .921 in 26 games for the Toronto Marlies at 21, getting another 15 AHL games (.920 save%) before the Toronto Maple Leafs called him up the following year. Bobrovsky was a .919 goalie in 35 KHL games at 21 before making the leap to the NHL.
It's not so clear-cut with Wallstedt, who posted a .910 save% for the Iowa Wild -- barely an improvement over his .908 the previous year. His 2023-24 season with Iowa was full of high highs and low lows. Let's demonstrate by breaking his 45 games down into thirds:
Games 1-15: .933 (432 saves on 461 shots)
Games 16-30: .876 (366 saves on 418 shots)
Games 31-45: .919 (422 saves on 459 shots)
It would've been more confidence-inspiring if Wallstedt just took two months off in the middle of the year. If he were on the shelf for those middle 15 games, we'd be looking at a goalie with a staggering .928 save% for a bottom-five AHL squad. To put that in perspective, the Nashville Predators may be willing to trade a great goalie in Juuse Saros because they have Yaroslav Askarov, who has a .911 save% in 44 games for the top-five Milwaukee Admirals, waiting in the wings.
Does that justify potentially throwing out a safety net in Gustavsson via trade? That's a difficult question. Gustavsson has the potential to be solid next year and beyond as a 1B to Wallstedt. Fleury's time here almost certainly maxes out at one year, making it a sink-or-swim situation with Wallstedt beyond 2025. Still, if they think Wallstedt can iron out the inconsistency he showed in the middle of last season, there's precedent for a goalie like him to succeed in the NHL. It's hard to predict much of anything with goaltenders, so perhaps tossing Wallstedt into the pool is the best path forward.
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