By Tony Abbott -
How much can you panic about a 3-5-2 start?
While the Minnesota Wild are in seventh place in the Central Division, it wouldn't have taken much for a few games to break differently. If one of four shots in overtime goes in on Sunday night, for example, the Wild would have entered Monday at a much more palatable 4-5-1 record. It's a small difference, but having two extra points in the bank would make a big difference in perception.
Maybe you don't think it's time to panic -- and perhaps you shouldn't. But it's clear from Bill Guerin's actions that the slow start has him concerned.
After the team's 1-3-1 road trip, the Wild President of Hockey Operations sat down with The Athletic to stress how important their homestand would be. “You can’t say, ‘Oh, we have 70-something games left.’ It doesn’t work like that. If you fall too far behind or if you’re not solid at the beginning, you can really put yourself in a bad spot for the playoffs."
They've since dropped two games to teams that failed to make the postseason last year. At home. In front of fans who put boos on the ice in both games.
We don't have any indication that a coaching change is being considered in Minnesota. The Athletic's piece doesn't mention it, and Guerin has not given Hynes the dreaded Vote Of Confidence, a sure sign that we're on a road to Coaching Change City. It's unlikely to be considered, especially given that Hynes and Guerin go back to their days in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in the AHL.
All we know is that there is a difference-making coach out there: Peter DeBoer.
In a league full of coaches that feel relatively interchangeable and are constantly recycled, DeBoer stands out for his success and staying power. In 10 trips to the playoffs, he's made the Conference Finals eight times, with four different teams. He's made two Stanley Cup Final appearances. Or, to put it in a different, more pointed way: He has fewer first-round exits than the Wild have playoff series wins in the past two decades.
His record doesn't come without flaws -- he lost his locker room after three seasons with the Dallas Stars after alienating Jake Oettinger. DeBoer also lasted a grand total of 160 regular-season games with the Vegas Golden Knights, despite two consecutive Conference Finals. Still, it's hard to deny his impact on a team or his ability to manage his way through a playoff series.
But hey, this is the part where we need to take a small step back and say that it's too early to change coaches. For one, John Hynes could turn things around. Again, it's just 10 games. It's also worth noting that Hynes is trying to keep this team running smoothly while integrating several rookie players into the lineup. We can also note that he's looking good on his biggest point of contention with the fans and media -- keeping the currently red-hot Marcus Johansson in an elevated role.
There's a good reason not to slam the panic button in October. Luck can be a huge factor early on in the season, and indeed, it's been a factor with Minnesota. Their 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 6.28%, the lowest in the NHL. Say what you want about the team's depth issues, but the Wild shouldn't be dead-last in the NHL at 5-on-5 shooting with a healthy Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek.
But we also have to be real about what this team's playing like -- one of the worst in the league.
The Wild aren't just not burying chances, they're not generating them, either. The team is 26th in expected goals for per hour at 5-on-5 (2.38), which is below punchless teams like the New York Islanders and Chicago Blackhawks. They're also alarmingly leaky on defense, surrendering 3.00 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5, 25th in the league.
Add it up, and the Wild are a bottom-five team in 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage (44.2%). They're 23rd in shot attempt percentage (47.2%), which means that even though they've been unlucky, they have more or less earned being dead last in goals for percentage (37.0%).
All this raises the question of whether the Wild -- who are a win-now team that has an urgent need to turn things around -- can afford to be too slow to land DeBoer. Whatever team is first on the draw to make a move presumably has the inside track on DeBoer, and there isn't anyone else of DeBoer's caliber for the team that goes second.
Would such a move be fair to Hynes? It wouldn't be, but the same thing was true of Drew Bannister when he coached the St. Louis Blues last year. In his first full season as a coach of any NHL team, the Blues dismissed him after a 9-12-1 start and installed Jim Montgomery, who is generally considered an elite coach in the league. They saw a chance to upgrade to an elite coach, and it worked. The Blues got to the playoffs and took the President's Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets to seven games.
Under normal circumstances, it probably makes the most sense to stick with Hynes through the season to see if he can turn things around. If so, great. The Wild did what they should do: Make the playoffs.
However, if not, the team can move on, knowing that Hynes got a fair shake in a league where the average coach's shelf life is between 2 and 2.5 years. But fair or not, it's hard to look at there being one, and only one, elite free-agent coach floating out there with so much playoff success without wondering if the Wild would be best-served to move quickly.
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