Can Matt Boldy Buck the NHL Aging Curve and Become A Superstar?

Although the Minnesota Wild may still be reeling from their first-round exit, the team has a promising future ahead. Recently, Scott Wheeler put five of Minnesota’s prospects on his top 100 list. The accolades for the Wild’s young core didn’t end there. NHL.com named Matt Boldy as a top-10 NHL forward under the age of 25. 

It’s easy to see why exports hold Boldy in such high regard. He led the Wild in scoring last season and has been a solid contributor in Minnesota ever since arriving. There’s a lot to like about Boldy, but there are also natural questions about whether he can ascend to become one of the league’s best players.

Bill Guerin famously forecasted that Boldy could score 50 goals and notch 50 assists a season during an appearance on the Spittin’ Chiclets Podcast last year.

“I think Matt could be a 50/50 guy. I think he could give you 50 goals, 50 assists all day long,” Guerin said. “He’s that talented. He’s a ridiculous athlete. I mean, just a naturally gifted kid.”

Boldy had 27 goals and 46 assists last year. He had his best season as a professional (27 goals, 46 assists, 73 points) but only slightly exceeded his previous campaign’s totals (29 goals, 40 assists, 69 points). Boldy’s output has mostly stabilized over the last several seasons. He’s hovered around 30 goals and 60 to 70 points for three years in a row.

If the winger is going to explode offensively into a 100-point player, he would be bucking the average aging curve for an NHL player. Boldy will be 24 years old when next season starts, and 25 before the season’s end. 

According to Matt Desfosses’ analysis on Medium, which tracked players' points per game compared to their previous season, most offensive growth is typically achieved by a player’s age 24 or 25 season.

(Source: Medium)

On average, the 24/25 season is the last one where a player can expect to improve their point totals compared to the previous year. Offense is stable from age 24 to 29, which is consistent with a player’s prime.

If Boldy follows that trend, he is pretty much what he is at this point. He’ll have developed into an excellent player who scores 30 goals a year and falls just short of a point per game. 

Still, it’s challenging to feel like there isn’t more potential there. Can Boldy buck the trend and go into another gear? 

He has the tools. 

There are several ways Boldy can unlock another gear, with the first being playing with more consistency. Unfortunately for the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov missed almost half of last year with an injury. That was detrimental to the team and Boldy’s production.

Let’s take a look at some stats. The first table represents the Wild’s top players through December 23 when Kirill Kaprizov got injured. The second table displays the same statistics after Kaprizov's injury.

(Source: Natural Stat Trick)

Boldy had about the same total points per 60, improving slightly post-Kaprizov injury. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, because his goals per 60 drastically dropped. The metrics tell a similar story with the line of Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy being the Wild’s best line last year.

Johansson-Eriksson Ek-Boldy was also a solid line, but the Wild are at their best when they can pair their stars on the top unit. 

Boldy’s shooting percentage also contributed to his offensive stagnation last season. The Boston College product has shot over 12% every year of his career, until last season, when he scored on just 10% of his shots. That isn’t a precipitous fall, but a return to his career average of around 12.5% would have resulted in a new career high of 34 goals. 

Bad luck may have contributed to his reduced shooting percentage, but there are also things he can do to improve his scoring rate. Chief among those areas of improvement is how to be more assertive with his shot selection. 

Boldy has settled into a perimeter style that has suited him well, but most of his goals still come from close range. Last season, Matt Boldy’s average shot came from 32.3 feet away from the net. His average goal came from 25.1 feet away. The forward’s career high in goals came in the 2022-23 season (31 goals), and that year, his average goal was scored from 16.9 feet out.

At 6'2”, 201 lbs, Matt Boldy has all the skills to get closer to the net, where he does his best work. He’s still valuable at range, but his scoring numbers could explode if he gets back to those high-danger areas. 

A more stable partnership with Kaprizov and a greater commitment to being a net-front presence could both go towards solving what Boldy’s most significant weakness has been in his NHL career. 

His consistency. 

In the same podcast appearance where Guerin said Boldy had 50/50 potential, he also admitted the player’s consistency is holding him back.

“As a forward, I went through it mainly when I was younger, so I understand,” Guerin said. “I think consistency…it’s probably one of the hardest things to get in the game is [to] become a consistent player or perform at a high level each and every night.”

Guerin said that before the 2024-25 season, but it holds true entering next season. Boldy had stretches of the season where he wasn’t compelling enough. He only scored seven points (just two goals) in 14 games during December. The most emblematic stretch of Boldy’s inconsistency came in late January and early February. 

On January 26, Boldy notched three assists against the Chicago Blackhawks. He was absent on the scoresheet for five games in a row before adding another three-point night on February 8. In a stretch of seven games, the Wild didn’t know whether they were going to get Boldy as a dominating force or whether he wouldn’t show up on the scoresheet at all. 

If Boldy is more consistent, his numbers will improve significantly. Is it likely that Boldy can ascend to Guerin’s 50 goals and 50 assists? That seems out of reach for reasonable expectations given his age. Still, the forward has some areas where he could pad his stats.

Boldy improving would also be a massive boon for the Wild, given that they didn’t build on their roster significantly this offseason. If Minnesota is going to get better, they’re going to need to rely on development from their best young players. Boldy has to find a way to buck the aging curve and make the jump to being a true superstar.